I read S-1 filings cover to cover. 25 years at a major Japanese telecom, in Silicon Valley since 2015. GCV Top 50 CVC investor. No price calls or advice.
Every S-1 I decode goes on a public scoreboard: $1,000 at the first day's close, tracked daily against the S&P 500. Wins and misses on the same page. Not prediction. Verification.
https://t.co/X9DJ9aZkBD
$1,000 into Google at its 2004 first-day close was $141,181 as of the Oct 13 close. The same table holds Snowflake: from its 2020 first-day close, $1,000 was $1,409 on the same date, vs $2,515 in the S&P 500 from Snowflake's first day. I track both, wins and misses.
@puckrin I went to p.294 of SB Energy's S-1/A (Sep 21). NVIDIA's $3.0B: $1.5B prepaid Aug 17 to parent Energy Global; $1.5B contingent on the IPO closing, at the IPO price.
I checked 965 US listings from 2020 to 2025 with usable price data, as of mid-July 2026. 195 touched 2x their first weekly close at some point within a year (~20%). 18 reached 10x within three (~2%). The winners are the exception.
@MartinGTobias I went to the cover of Oura's S-1/A, filed Sept 21. Of the 50,000,000 shares offered, the company was offering 13,500,000 and the selling stockholders 36,500,000.
@LeaveDelaware I opened p.121 of SB Energy's S-1/A (Sept 21). Its own risk factors say the Texas Business Court "is in its infancy, began hearing cases in September 2024".
$1,000 into Figma at its first-day close was $195 as of the Oct 9 close. The same $1,000 put into the S&P 500 on Figma's first day: $1,250. I record where day-one heat lands, every day.
I read DayOne Data Centers' prospectus (Form F-1) in the original. It is a data center company headquartered in Singapore, and it filed with the SEC on October 5. It rents space, power and cooling in data centers to large cloud and AI companies.
After the listing there will initially be eight directors. Only two of those seats are in the class that shareholders elect (the articles allow at most three), and the board approves the candidates first. Shareholders cannot remove the other six. The filing does not yet include a price range.
Every company I decode from its SEC filing goes on a public scoreboard: $1,000 at the first-day close, tracked daily against the S&P 500. 17 listed so far. Wins and misses on the same board. Not prediction. Verification:
https://t.co/AeVDg47DGj
@lightspeedvp@Machiz@AggShaurya I opened the cover of Oura's S-1/A (Sept 21, 2026). It lists 50,000,000 shares at an estimated $40.00 to $44.00 each: 13,500,000 offered by Oura itself and 36,500,000 by the selling stockholders.
@themacrosift I opened p.123 of SpaceX's 424B4 (June 12, 2026). On the EchoStar spectrum licenses it agreed to buy in 2025: "The total consideration for the acquisition of the Spectrum Licenses is approximately $19.6 billion", about $11.1 billion of it in stock at a fixed $42.40 per share.
@McnallieM@Oracle I opened Holtec's withdrawal request (Form RW, September 25, 2026). Reason given: "it no longer wishes to conduct a public offering of securities at this time." It adds: "no securities have been issued or sold under the Registration Statement."