Simon Cox

Journalist at The Economist. Interested in emerging economies, especially China. Opinions may be my own; they certainly aren't my employer's. Likes=bookmarks

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

In 2009 Robert Lucas wrote a guest column for us defending economics from @TheEconomist, followed by a blog roundtable including posts by @tylercowen, @delong, @MarkusEconomist et al. Links in the thread below.
https://t.co/aa02dpegYG

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@andrewbatson @JonathonPSine you can also read about it here :) https://t.co/iV3srk6zx5

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@JonathonPSine 4) I think the working paper may be using a revised GDP figure for 2021. At the time of the 2022 budget, 2021 GDP was thought to be lower, iirc.

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@JonathonPSine Other ideas: 1) the CPI "target" is really a ceiling, so both the MoF and the CFEAC expect to undershoot it. 2) The GDP deflator will often undershoot the CPI. 3) The deficit target might be rounded off to the nearest 0.1% of GDP. That can make a big difference to implied growth.

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@greg_ip @rhodium_group @shehzadhqazi @ChinaBeigeBook The NBS does disclose that it revised its fixed-asset investment figures https://t.co/FimWUtfEru

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@greg_ip @rhodium_group Not sure I understand this calculation. AFAICT, the official figures imply total consumption grew by about 8%. Total consumption was about 54% of 2022 GDP. It contributed 82.5% of growth in 2023. 82.5% of 5.2 is 4.29 and 4.29 is about 8% of 54

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@berthofmanecon Thanks Bert. TSF is in line with the "projected" growth of GDP and the CPI.

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@berthofmanecon @Sino_Market Other countries count current students who are nonetheless in the labour market (eg looking for a part-time job) but unable to find work. I guess the NBS no longer counts those people. https://t.co/dzzYrknFog

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@adamkwolfe @TheEconomist …at least two people I respect clearly hate the article so something has clearly gone wrong in the execution!

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@adamkwolfe @TheEconomist Well the premise of the story was: here’s an interesting, neglected bit of data that might alter the way you think about the causes of China’s low consumption and recent progress to raise it. But…

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@adamkwolfe @TheEconomist (Thanks for bearing with me)

[Simon Cox @s1moncox]

@adamkwolfe @TheEconomist It also points out that China’s social transfers in kind are not high compared with the OECD average. 15/15