Bitcoin has won. Global consensus is that $BTC is digital capital. The four-year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes.
@TNorth Interesting discussion of Digital Capital, Digital Equity, Digital Credit, and Digital Money with some excellent insights by @PunterJeff and @AdamBLiv.
NEW: Sen. Sullivan and Sen. Lummis lead letter to the Fed, FDIC and OCC, calling for revaluation of Basel’s risk weighting for Bitcoin and digital assets.
“A 1,250% risk weight bypasses those calibrated frameworks entirely, applying a blunt penalty …to a transparent, globally traded asset with deep derivatives markets, continuous liquidity, and cryptographic auditability.”
This is a strong signal from Washington that legislators are looking closely at this issue as work on market structure continues. The letter has 6 signatories and 3 are on the Banking Committee.
It’s also great to see BPI’s brief on this topic cited in the third footnote! 😉
We’ll keep you posted on further updates.
@TNorth Interesting discussion of Digital Capital, Digital Equity, Digital Credit, and Digital Money with some excellent insights by @PunterJeff and @AdamBLiv.
This week's bitcoin dip has triggered STRC to fall beneath $99. In this video, I walk through the math of how Strategy's bitcoin reserve gives me confidence that they will be able to pay STRC dividends for decades...
Capital markets are funding the AI buildout at historic scale: ~$400B over 6 months. Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14, pressuring $BTC. This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity.
. @saylor argues Bitcoin's dominance has nothing to do with belief - it follows the exact same pattern as every winning protocol in human history.
"There is no second best math protocol. There is no second best language."
"Once a protocol hits critical mass, there's a massive network effect. And all of the money and the power and the influence of the world follows."
"Learn Arabic math. Learn to read English. Learn Bitcoin. If you want to be wealthy and powerful. Because that's where all the money is."
@Strategy
Saylor x BTC Drama
Fwiw I sat down for more than 2 hours with Saylor about 2 weeks ago
This usually enables me to “feel” what kind of person is in front me , something that you can’t if you arent in the room with us. I’ve done 173 of those interviews over the last 3 years and this has enabled me to develop a good intuition, although there are no certainties ever (especially in this industry)
My intuition tells me that Saylor is a genius and is always a few chess plays ahead of everyone else. This is not new to his Bitcoin journey, it’s been true for 35 years at least. Watch the podcast below and you’ll understand what I mean
Imho, we have a bunch of monkeys on this app who havent done the work properly and are shouting for engagement and maybe because they are angry because they are losing money while their non crypto pals are outperforming them (enormously) by buying AI stocks or simply DCAing the Nasdaq for years
And then we have Saylor who is an engineer and understands financial engineering way better than the little monkey “traders” or “KOLs” on this app
$BTC isn’t going down because of Saylor, although it’s always helpful to have a scapegoat for one’s poor investment/ trading / financial decisions and lack of long term thinking- every cycle needs a scapegoat.
BTC is going down because it’s in a bear market.
I’ve been wrong in the past and am not a financial engineer by any means but I have developed a pretty good gut feeling after interviewing the biggest people in the industry - in a room - for more than 3 years. Saylor is truly built different and on another level of both intelligence and humility - that most could only dream of (myself included)
I truly believe (and know for a fact) that the majority of the people on this app have no idea what they are talking about and on top will say they bought the dip or the crash (whatever comes next) once the sentiment turns in the next few weeks or months
Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate.
Episode 60: The Math of Amplification
In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down the latest corporate Bitcoin market activity and Strive's growing Bitcoin holdings, before turning to Strategy's Bitcoin sale and what the balance sheet math actually reveals about risk and permanent impairment. We dig into historical bear market scenarios, how to manage amplification ratios, and the product management and demand dynamics shaping the treasury company landscape. We close with a deeper look at what digital credit actually is and why it matters for the road ahead.
Here's the latest with
@TimKotzman, @ColeMacro, @PunterJeff, and @Werkman
00:00 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate
02:26 - Analysis of Strategy's Debt Retirement
10:48 - Capital Structure and Market Perception
21:57 - Strive's Bitcoin Holdings Update
23:26 - SATA Daily Dividends Launch
31:40 - Strive Market Cap and Efficiency
33:14 - Ecosystem Cooperation and Voting
42:04 - New Federal Reserve Chair Outlook
Big news! 🚨 Saylor University is now officially IACET accredited - joining the ranks of the Wharton School Continuing Ed program, UC Berkeley Extension, and Stanford's Center for Professional Development. Our 170+ free, self-paced courses now award recognized Continuing Education Units (CEUs). High-quality education is now even more valuable for your career - and still completely free.
https://t.co/hZaRFUmrcd
Strive acquired an additional 2,500 $BTC for ~$185.2M at an average cost of ~$74,092 per bitcoin.
STRIVE SNAPSHOT
Bitcoin holdings: 19,000
QTD BTC Yield: 23.0%
YTD BTC Yield: 36.7%
Amplification ratio: 57.0%
Cash was increased to maintain 18-month dividend reserve.
$ASST $SATA
People are overthinking the 32 BTC sale.
“Why sell?”
“Why not just buy less next week?”
“Is this bearish?”
Michael @saylor already explained the logic:
• If Bitcoin can’t be sold, critics say it has no value.
• If it has no value, the balance sheet value is zero.
• If the balance sheet value is zero, credit rating agencies ignore it.
• So you sell a tiny appreciated portion to prove Bitcoin is liquid, valuable, and real.
Final week to vote for twice-monthly dividends. If you haven’t voted, please do so now. We believe this upgrade helps make Digital Credit better for $BTC, $MSTR, and $STRC. Please share with other holders. We need your support. https://t.co/0QObDgFH5w