Trading and investing require more passion, dedication, and commitment than nearly any other pursuit on earth.
Reality is if you’re not completely obsessed you’re not going to make it.
There’s a balance but you really need to love this game.
Noone sees the thousands of hours put in to get better at what you do.
Only you know the effort that you are putting in behind the scenes.
Taking 2 steps forward and 1 step back. Surviving the ups and downs.
Its not just about results but whats learned through the journey.
Your lifestyle choices correlate to your success as a market participant.
Strongly believe if you eat awful foods, don’t get sleep, binge drink, etc. your chances of success in the market are lower.
Discipline is key in the markets, if you’re not disciplined in your personal life how can you be disciplined in the market and expect to make good decisions?
The food you put in your body, the exercise you get, the sleep you prioritize, the habits you build, etc. all fuel your ability to think clearly and execute.
Trading is already hard enough when you’re sharp. Try doing it when you’re tired, hungover, inflamed, distracted, anxious, or running on horrible sleep.
Not this doesn’t mean you need to live like a monk or be perfect every single day but if you want consistency and discipline in the market you need consistency and discipline outside of the market too.
Software and crypto are two sectors that nobody owns anymore and also happened to top + bottom before the market.
If they start to show any signs of turning, there are plenty of potential buyers out there…
BREAKING: American drivers have paid an additional $8.4 billion in fuel costs since the Iran War began on February 28th.
In other words, Americans have spent an additional $240 million per day on fuel costs since the war began.
The average cost of gas in the US is now up to $4.10 per gallon, the highest since June 2022.
This puts means the cost of gas is now up +$1.30 per gallon since January.
Energy costs are rapidly rising.
How most people blow up...
1. Sees a stock pumping
2. FOMOs in at the top
3. Watches it crash
4. Calls it a generational opportunity
5. Buys the dip
6. It keeps dipping
7. Panic sells at the bottom
8. Rage quits
9. Does it all over again
*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS
Rate hikes are probably the worst take of all that market participants are betting on right now.
This is not a demand led shock where everyone is fighting for the same product as the disposable grows.
Goldman Sachs points to 1990, when markets expected tightening after an oil shock, but the Fed ultimately cut rates as growth weakened.
As Oil prices rise, more of the disposable income that is weakening itself through the job market tightening is being spent on energy rather than the rest.
This creates overall weakness in demand leading to a likely slowdown. Higher Oil actually front loads inflation while it creates deflationary pressures in the mid to long term.
The FED is very unlikely in view to hike rates right as the consumer is getting squeezed by higher energy cost and a weakening job market.
Story stocks trade on emotion, almost 0 fundamentals which is why buying a name 40 50 60% off highs is not a reason to buy. Case in point all the quantum names, flying cars, rare earth etc.. Once the story no longer resonates there is no rev & earnings growth to protect you.
I’ve been at this for 3 decades. The World Trade Center, 2000 crash, GFC, Covid and the Tariff tantrum. Mental stamina to withstand ugly action and capital to persevere are everything. So take care of you, your state of mind ultimately is key to success. Nobody knows the bottom and this is but a blip so far. Once you run out of capital, a great mind and stock idea get u nowhere because you have no CASH … so capital is your lifeblood, manage it as if your life depends on it. The ultimate guide for how to deal with market drawdowns is understanding risk. When to press the gas and when to slow down.
If you don’t adapt to various market conditions, you’ll blow up your account.
In uptrends I don’t like to wait for confirmation. I’d rather buy weakness and take a chance on a pullback.
In a downtrend like this, I want to see some confirmation or some base building.
Different environments call for different strategies. What works in one environment doesn’t work in another. Using big size, wider stops, etc. can work in a healthy trending market.
That doesn’t work right now, you’ll get steamrolled if you deploy those same tactics.
Paytience.