Spencer Faragasso

Senior Fellow with @TheGoodISIS, covering Iran, North Korea, illicit trade, and nuclear weapons in general. Institute for Science and International Security

[Ambassador Mike Waltz @USAmbUN]

Castro’s grandkids enjoy European vacations as Countless Cubans risk their lives on rafts fleeing the dire conditions of their country.

[Drone Wars @Drone_Wars_]

Russia’s military-industrial complex has placed orders for more than 100,000 Kometa anti-jamming navigation modules in 2026, according to Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Directorate (GUR).

The modules use controlled reception pattern antenna (CRPA) arrays to reduce the effects of electronic warfare interference on satellite navigation signals. They consist of an antenna array and a signal-processing unit based on an Altera Cyclone FPGA.

According to GUR, 16-element arrays are already in widespread use, while serial production of 20-element versions is being prepared. The use of 32-element arrays manufactured in China and Russia’s Alabuga industrial zone has also been identified.

Kometa modules have been documented in various Russian missiles, attack drones and guided aerial bombs. The main developer and manufacturer is Russia’s VNIIR-Progress, part of the ABS Electro group, which relies on its own facilities, affiliated companies and external contractors to fulfil orders.

The order figure exceeds 100,000 units but does not establish how many modules have already been manufactured or delivered.

Source: Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Directorate

[Mark Krutov @kromark]

1/2 The number of confirmed air defense towers and ramps in Alabuga, the main production facility for Russian strike drones, has reached 33, as a new @planet high-res image taken today, Oct. 21, shows. Ukraine hasn’t attempted to strike the site since June 2025.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Ukrainian forces continued to hunt down Russian missile production facilities with their UK-supplied Storm Shadows today, successfully striking the Yelets Energia Plant.

The plant, hit by multiple Storm Shadows, produced subcomponents for the Iskander, Kinzhal, and Zircon.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Renewed US strikes on Iran are “no longer a question of if, but when.” - US official to Israel’s I24

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Footage of multiple Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles slamming into Russia’s Proton military electronics plant in Orel this weekend.

The strike heavily damaged a chip fab at the factory.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Footage of Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles slamming into Russia’s Energia military electronics plant in Yelets this weekend.

At least 7 missiles hit the plant, damaging multiple workshops that produced batteries for a number of Russian missile systems.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

President Trump is reportedly leaning toward carrying out a major attack on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites after the midterm elections - WSJ

The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign.

[Inst for Science @TheGoodISIS]

IAEA DG Grossi’s summary on the status of Iran’s *declared*  nuclear program is largely aligned with our observations in satellite imagery; post June 2025 there have been some repairs at the Natanz PFEP and the above ground Esfahan facility but we also assessed them to be unlikely for actual reconstruction and more likely for shielding from overhead observation. The key declared sites where enriched uranium storage and/or enrichment took place at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan remain non-operational.  We do have concerns about sites associated with Iran’s UNDECLARED program however, past and present.  DG Grossi does not explain which sites the IAEA is monitoring when referring to "locations associated with [Iran's] past undeclared nuclear programme."  But it should include Taleghan 2, which is actively undergoing reconstruction, and Minzadayi, which sees high levels of activity around the site. The former was part of Iran’s crash nuclear weapons program codenamed Amad and investigated but never visited by the IAEA. The IAEA did find uranium particles at the building next door (Taleghan 1), despite intensive sanitization efforts, that were never adequately explained.  Taleghan 2 was linked to nuclear weapons relevant work as recently as 2024. Minzadayi was targeted by the IDF in March 2026 for its role in Iran’s most recent nuclear weapons capabilities and was linked in public reporting to metallurgy and to the Turquz Abad site, which is part of an ongoing IAEA investigation.  Also not mentioned explicitly by DG Grossi is the status of surviving centrifuges and Pickaxe Mountain, where centrifuges and components were moved according to @WSJ reporting on Israeli intelligence. Together with the enriched uranium, these are critical elements of Iran's nuclear program that could provide Iran a path to reconstitute its capabilities outside of declared facilities.

Quote from DG Grossi today: "As stated in my reports to the Board of Governors, the IAEA continues to monitor activities at Iran’s declared nuclear facilities and locations associated with its past undeclared nuclear programme. Also, and since June 2025, we have not identified any activity to repair or reconstruct any of the facilities damaged in the military attacks of 2025 and 2026."

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

The Trump administration is considering lifting sanctions on Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Russian Direct Investment Fund, according to The New York Times. A U.S. official confirmed the administration is assessing the fund’s application for removal “through established procedures” as part of an effort to “improve U.S.-Russia relations and help end the war.” A final decision has not yet been made.

The Biden administration sanctioned the fund after Russia’s 2022 invasion, calling it a “slush fund” for Putin. People familiar told the Times that Russian officials pushed for relief in talks over the fund’s role in shipping Russian diesel to the U.S., after Trump suspended sanctions on Russian diesel October 9th. Treasury considers the fund already authorized to handle diesel and is running the normal removal process separately.

This would follow earlier actions taken by President Donald J. Trump with respect to Russian sanctions. On October 16th, President Trump signed an order waiving the duties and most of the sanctions provisions of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. On October 21st, as envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin, Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a 74 year old American held since 2022. President Trump wrote that the U.S. “was not required to give anything in return.” In remarks that day he said the U.S. “gave nothing in exchange.” In a Truth Social post just a few minutes later, he wrote that “if sanctions would have been placed, certainly those negotiations would have come to a complete and total halt."

Source: https://t.co/vVJkncXOpd

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

The Department of War, in coordination with Lockheed Martin and European allies, has selected Poland to host a European PAC-3 Missile Maintenance Facility, the Pentagon announced October 27th, on the margins of NATO’s Conference of National Armaments Directors. Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden will lead supply chain integration, according to the release.

PAC-3 is the interceptor missile fired by Patriot air defense systems. The facility will conduct maintenance, repair and overhaul in Europe. It is not for building new missiles. The Pentagon says doing that work in the region will “dramatically shorten turnaround times” and give allies surge capacity in a crisis, but does not quantify either. Under Secretary of War for Acquisition and Sustainment Michael Duffey said allies are investing national resources “to establish this critical sustainment capability on NATO’s Eastern Front.”

The decision follows a July 7th agreement, signed at the NATO summit in Ankara by the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden, to explore such a facility. Lockheed Martin said at the time it would support allies operating both PAC-3 MSE and PAC-3 Cost Reduction Initiative interceptors.

Source: https://t.co/fKr2L9uHTv

[Andrew Jones @AJ_FI]

Behold: The US Defense Intelligence Agency has released a report on challenges to security in space, including an NEI image of China’s spaceplane from Maxar, taken in 2024.

[Sharri Markson @SharriMarkson]

When I received a message from a former Trump administration official in August, asking me to meet with his team at a prestigious think-tank, I never could have imagined I was conversing with an Iranian intelligence agent.
It was the start of a two-month sting - described by ASIO chief Mike Burgess as "sophisticated and targeted" - that ended with the notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gaining access to my personal emails and details in a major security breach.
The message from a former senior Trump administration contact I forged through my Wuhan reporting, who has a prominent profile with hundreds of thousands of followers, came on August 18 this year.
I had worked with him on my investigation into the origins of Covid-19. I trusted him and had met him in person during one of his visits to Australia.
Unbeknownst to either of us, his genuine X account had been infiltrated by an Iranian operative, using the ‘delegate feature’ on X, which gives a third party access to manage and operate your account.
Full story here:
https://t.co/o5hWDbbfol

[NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports]

❗️Cruise missiles likely struck the Energia plant in Yelets, Lipetsk region. The facility works for Russia’s military-industrial sector and produces batteries and power sources used in missile systems, aircraft and other military equipment. #Russia

[NASA Artemis @NASAArtemis]

To prepare for NASA’s Artemis IV mission to land astronauts on the lunar surface, SpaceX and Blue Origin have updated their concepts of operations for its landers.

These landers — Starship and Blue Moon — have concepts of operations different from one another. More below ⬇️

[NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports]

A crashed drone was found about 100 meters from a home in Chiștelnița, Telenești district in Moldova. Police say no casualties have been reported. Officers cordoned off the area, while explosives specialists are heading to the scene to examine the drone and determine the circumstances. #Moldova

[Jake Epstein @byjepstein]

Two chilly but very autumnal days in southern Germany seeing how the US Army’s 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team is training for a modern battlefield infested with drones and electronic warfare, informed heavily by lessons from Ukraine. Stories TK.

[Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love]

A Russian Geran-5 jet-powered drone intercepted by a regular Ukrainian STING developed by @wilendhornets , not the specialized STING-S designed to counter faster aerial targets.

While the standard STING isn’t designed to reliably intercept jet-powered drones, this shows that under the very specific conditions, it can still engage them.

[Jacob Jensen @JJensen2020]

The Legal Battle Over Section 338 Tariffs:

Take a look at this week’s Shipment which goes over the new legal case against the 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canada.
#Tariffs #Trade #Canada

https://t.co/n1HasXD315

[Inst for Science @TheGoodISIS]

NEW imagery update: Various levels of cleanup activities were observed at the three sites related to Mojdeh / Lavizan 2 following the March 2026 attacks: The main Mojdeh site was previously attacked in June 2025 and was undergoing rapid cleanup efforts, which the follow-on strikes in March 2026 appear to have effectively ended.  After several months of little activity, the attacked, large engineering-type building just north of the main Mojdeh site is currently in the process of being fully dismantled and cleared.  In the process, six containers that were stationed alongside the building before the attack were removed.  The remnants of the destroyed large building cluster at Malek Ashtar University have been fully cleaned up and the space was turned into a large parking lot accommodating the many personnel vehicles on site. See the figures for an overview of the area after the June 2025 war but before the attacks in the March 2026;  the various levels of cleanup activity around the area as of mid-September; and close-ups of the Mojdeh site, the engineering-type building, and the cleaned up area at Malek Ashtar University. 

Read the full report here: https://t.co/Ps1QABU4eQ