SH8Model

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@SharpClarkeNFL https://t.co/8rSyc58S1g

Was very hard to model out what the impact would be. But ultimately still ended up with the offense being crappy. Just not as crappy

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@VolumeBets just re-ran them with cousins. basically blamed 50% of the minny output on Wentz/Kyler and 50% on the offense being broken. then applied it to the cousins rating i have for him, which he's obviously overperformed on this season.

Worth +1.5pts for the minny O

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@ProFBImpact I think model is really banging them for the 36 they allowed to Cam Ward and for how easy their schedule has been.

But it does have them at 12 wins and -240 for the division so I wouldn’t say it hates them. Right in line with the market on both

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Power Ratings through Week 9 (updated after the trade deadline)

Vikings move up by 1.5pts and that may not be enough!

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Power Ratings through Week 9.

LAR reflects a 1.5-pt downgrade for Puka's injury. Jax gets 1 pt for its trade day bonanza.

Hou is an interesting 7seed candidate as it faces the 31st easiest remaining schedule

Denver might win 13 games and model will still have a 0.0 rating FML

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Week 11 Look Ahead Bets

Sides
Car -1.5 (Bal)
Lac -1.5 (NYJ)
Was +4 (Cin)

Totals
NO/Chi o48.5
Pit/Phi u38.5

Bets that just missed:
AZ/KC o42 (Beck+Mahomes health questions)
Cin/Was o51.5 (great MNF game)
Bal/Car u43.5
Min/SF u45.5 (Mexico City + Kirk questions)
Dal -7.5 (Ten)

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@cbfsu I went back and looked and yeah, never had one that high

So many of their games have been wonky with the Qb injury, the monsoon one… who knows what’s real and what’s not with them. Even the bears one on SNF was insane

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Power Ratings through Week 9.

LAR reflects a 1.5-pt downgrade for Puka's injury. Jax gets 1 pt for its trade day bonanza.

Hou is an interesting 7seed candidate as it faces the 31st easiest remaining schedule

Denver might win 13 games and model will still have a 0.0 rating FML

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Power Ratings after 8 weeks

Congrats to the Bears on reaching #1 status with that impressive win last night

Model continues to be confused by the NFC South (who isn't?) and continues to underrate the AFC West

Incredible season by Dallas so far considering their schedule...

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@VolumeBets just re-ran them with cousins. basically blamed 50% of the minny output on Wentz/Kyler and 50% on the offense being broken. then applied it to the cousins rating i have for him, which he's obviously overperformed on this season.

Worth +1.5pts for the minny O

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@roley_78 Just for some look ahead bets, nothing like it was.

Still think it finds value on those so putting it back out there

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Adding LAC +5.5

Market hates Seattle, SF and LAC look aheads. Likes the totals a lot more

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

week 10 look ahead plays

Sides
LAC +1.5 (at Bal)
Sea -5.5 (at LV)
SF -4.5 (at Dal)

Totals
Was/NYG o44.5
KC/Atl o46.5
NE/Det o49.5
Pit/Cin o47.5

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@uncledoomer iPhone came out in 07

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@David_Chiles_11 Ugh so bad. Hopefully I caught them at the right week next

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Power Ratings after 8 weeks

Congrats to the Bears on reaching #1 status with that impressive win last night

Model continues to be confused by the NFC South (who isn't?) and continues to underrate the AFC West

Incredible season by Dallas so far considering their schedule...

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Power Ratings after 7 weeks

Spread between Seattle and everyone else grew.

Looks like moving Phi to #31 after Jalen got hurt was the right move.

Our NYG +350 NFCE bet had a big week!

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Just one addition for tomorrow

Atl TT o24.5 -105

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Positive line value on NYG, NEP, Det/Mia, Buf/Min

No line value on TB

Disastrous line value lost Jax/Bal

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@anbokrz @jeff_lon @bynoahfurtado @chargers Excellent explanation. It’s been one of the most shocking drops by a QB in his prime I can remember

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@texasrunnerDFW It’s been a fantastic 18 years for most Americans. At a point where so many countries have seen economic stagnation, the growth we’ve had here. The low unemployment. The innovation.

By almost any measure, this has been an incredible era.

Keep the waves waving

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@ColoradoItal @benbbaldwin Got it. When you said “This is your subjective opinion, obviously,” I misunderstood what you were saying.

I live and die by markets and believe in their efficiency as a whole so wouldn’t have responded if I had read it correctly!

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@ColoradoItal @benbbaldwin The power ratings are based on the market value of the teams. He’s aggregating the different spreads into a rating. No opinion of his is in these numbers.

Also, while the vast majority of bettors are fish, the line moves happen from the actions of the few that aren’t.

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@ColoradoItal @benbbaldwin The numbers are what the market is saying these teams are worth.

If you don’t think the market’s valuation of a team, security, property, etc is objective, that’s an argument you can make but I’ll be on the other side of it

[SportsBall @_SportsBall_]

The importance of punters 🏈

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

@ColoradoItal @benbbaldwin I believe he’s saying it’s objective because these are not his ratings, just the market’s ratings of these teams.

The broncos are 2.5pt favorites at Carolina this week. If the market considered them a top row team, they’d be over a field goal not under.

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

Positive line value on NYG, NEP, Det/Mia, Buf/Min

No line value on TB

Disastrous line value lost Jax/Bal

[SH8Model @SH8Model]

week 9 look ahead bets

NYG -102 at Phi (biggest edge)
NEP -2.5 v GB
TB +6.5 at Chi

Jax/Bal o48.5
Det/Mia o48.5 (biggest total edge)
Buf/Min u48.5