♠ SK ♣

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The market is dropping in response to the Fed's first meeting with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair for one key reason:

We will have far less information going forward.

During the press conference today, Fed Chair Warsh announced that the Fed has "dropped" forward guidance.

He even hinted that the "dot plot" could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences.

In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.

On top of this, the five new "task forces" established by Warsh were said to have grand objectives with minimal guidance on what to expect.

As markets have repeatedly proven, uncertainty and volatility go hand-in-hand.

The new era of Fed policy will come with more volatility.

[Wimar.X @DefiWimar]

SpaceX valuation: $2.65 Trillion
Amazon valuation: $2.65 Trillion

SpaceX revenue: $18 Billion
Amazon revenue: $720 Billion

[Noah @antibearthesis]

Me realizing I’m closer to becoming a billionaire than Elon Musk

[Ronit Pereira @CAronitpereira]

Remember what Warren Buffett once said:

“Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.”

[naiive @naiivememe]

Traders following Strait of Hormuz news

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🇺🇸 INSANE BIG TECH EARNINGS:

Microsoft (Q3 FY26)
• Revenue: $81.4–81.5B exp. → $82.89B actual

Alphabet (Q1 26)
• Revenue: $106–107B exp. → ~$109.9B actual

Meta (Q1 26)
• Revenue: ~$55.5B exp. → $56.31B actual

Amazon (Q1 26)
• Revenue: ~$177B exp. → ~$181.5B actual

All four BEAT.

[Steve Miller @askslim]

Stocks at all-time highs!

War — bullish
Inflation — bullish
Sticky inflation — bullish
Record valuations — bullish
Rate cuts delayed — bullish
Higher-for-longer — bullish
Yield curve distorted — bullish
Deficits exploding — bullish
Debt at records — bullish
Treasury supply surge — bullish
Central bank trapped — bullish
Earnings revisions down — bullish
Margins compressing — bullish
Consumer slowing — bullish
Credit card delinquencies rising — bullish
Commercial real estate stress — bullish
Geopolitical tension — bullish
Supply chains shifting — bullish
Energy volatility — bullish
AI disruption — bullish
AI overspending — bullish

Bad news is good news.
Good news is even better.

Liquidity over logic.
Momentum over meaning.

Don’t ask why—just ask how much higher.

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

Bull market
Bear market
Consolidation

Always the same, stay stoic.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has told mediators that they will not send a delegation for peace talks with the US until the US "blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted, per WSJ.

When President Trump was asked about the conflict today, he responded, "I have all the time in the world."

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

War on weekend, peace on weekdays

Crazy times

[bacon @steve2bacon]

there are months where nothing happens; and there are days where months happen

[rwlk @sherlock_hodles]

No Iran deal but the S&P 500 just hit all time highs

[Market Watcher @watchingmarkets]

I would never have expected such a V shaped recovery under these uncertain macro conditions.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Something isn’t right, and you know it.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

One of the greatest moments in crypto twitter history.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to Trump's "48 Hour Warning" - 6 PM ET Today

2. March ISM Non-Manufacturing data - Monday

3. Trump's "Iran Power Plant and Bridge Day" - Tuesday

4. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday

5. February PCE Inflation data - Thursday

6. US Q4 2025 GDP data - Thursday

7. March CPI Inflation data - Friday

8. April MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday

9. April MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

We expect extreme volatility ahead.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Markets down 9%,

Jumps 4% on fake news,

And suddenly everyone’s calling for new highs again.

Sentiment has never flipped this fast.

Humans are a very interesting species.

It’s about to get real funny.

[Felix Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn]

If You Don't Understand the Petrodollar, You Don't Understand Money

[L2WTrades @L2WTrades]

sat next to a 20 year old guy on a plane who casually mentioned he made $4.5 million last year

didn't look rich

t-shirt

jeans

beat up backpack

i asked what he did

"i trade futures"

"full time?"

"yeah, about 3 hours a day"

"$4.5 million in 3 hours a day?"

"well, it's not really about hours, it's about decisions. i probably make 10-15 decisions per month that matter. the rest is just waiting"

"what do you mean?"

"most people think trading is constant action. it's not. it's 99% waiting for your setup, 1% executing. that's why most people fail. they can't handle doing nothing"

he pulled out his laptop

showed me his calendar

90% of trading days marked: "NO TRADE"

"this is march, see? 31 days. i traded 7 times. made $380k that month"

"7 trades made $380k?"

"yeah, because they were the RIGHT 7 trades. everyone else took 200 trades that month and lost money because they were WRONG trades. quality over quantity"

"how do you know which 7 to take?"

"i don't trade unless i'd bet my house on it"

"what?"

"every trade, i ask myself: would i bet my house on this setup? if the answer is no, i don't trade. most setups? the answer is no. but 7 times this month, the answer was YES"

he kept talking:

"the biggest mistake retail traders make is thinking they need to trade every day. you don't. you need to trade WHEN YOUR SETUP APPEARS. some months that's 15 times. some months that's 3 times"

"what about consistency?"

"consistency isn't daily trading. consistency is ONLY taking your setup. if your setup appears once a week, you trade once a week. if it appears 5 times in a day, you trade 5 times that day. the market doesn't care about your need for action"

"but i feel like i'm wasting time if i'm not trading"

"that's employee mindset. you think time = money. it doesn't. correct decisions = money. i make more doing nothing 24 days a month than you make forcing trades every single day"

he was right

i was trading out of BOREDOM

not opportunity

i tested this for 90 days:

BEFORE "house bet" filter:
- 156 trades
- 41% win rate
- -$3,800

AFTER "house bet" filter:
- 11 trades
- 73% win rate
- +$14,200

11 trades in 90 days

because i stopped trading

and started WAITING

the plane guy was right:

"most traders are addicted to action. they need to DO something. that's why they lose. the real money is in doing NOTHING until the perfect setup appears. but doing nothing feels like you're not working, so people force trades"

"how do you handle the boredom?"

"i have a life outside trading. i go to the gym. i read. i travel. trading is 3 hours a day MAX. the other 21 hours i'm living. you guys are staring at charts 12 hours a day hoping something happens. that's not trading. that's gambling addiction"

he closed his laptop

"here's the secret: the less you trade, the more you make. i know guys trading 500 times a month making $0. i trade 15 times a month making $400k. the difference? i'm SELECTIVE. they're ACTIVE. market rewards selectivity, punishes activity"

flight landed

he gave me his card

"if you want to make real money trading, stop trying to trade every day. start waiting for YOUR setup only. 90% of trading is waiting. 10% is executing. master the waiting and you'll make more money doing nothing than everyone else makes doing everything"

i never saw him again

but i think about that conversation every single day

the math is simple:

you're not paid by the trade

you're paid by the CORRECT trade

taking 200 trades with 40% accuracy = -$5k

taking 20 trades with 70% accuracy = +$50k

same account

different approach

completely different outcome

most of you are over-trading

thinking activity = profit

it doesn't

selectivity = profit

the traders making $500k+/year

they trade LESS than you

not more

they're better at WAITING

not better at TRADING

master the wait

make the money