Sean Kates

Please impute responsibly

[American Political Science Review @apsrjournal]

From our February Issue: Plutopopulism: Wealth and Trump’s Financial Base by @SKates5350, ERIC MANNING, @TMendelberg and @owasow. https://t.co/ITjT4VgoVk

[Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) @BrendanNyhan]

1. Frontier large language models are *fantastic* at checking preregistration fidelity. This is a perfect use case.
2. I recognize prereg norms differ. Editors can still use their judgment about what issues are severe enough to desk reject. IMO many of these cases are quite clear

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

This is Jenna Ortega for people that like movies

[conor @conor_brn]

Very funny how Yungblud is ‘separate the art from the artist’ but the opposite way around

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

@femaleuncle Yup

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

This whole movie is filled with beautiful sweaters and jackets. Thinking about the jacket the forensic psychologist wears in that early scene in the precinct. Great stuff

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

It’s fine; the book is having an impact! Yay! But this is bottom of the barrel ahistorical propaganda stuff

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

I love how stupid this is. The book in 2nd place did this less than a month ago and it centers a specific issue, provides historical context, discusses the modern problem, and even offers some solutions. The third place book has done it multiple times over the past year(!)

[Matthew Zeitlin @MattZeitlin]

What was the last policy book to do this

[Omar Wasow | @[email protected] @owasow]

Were wealthy donors key to Trump’s campaigns in 2016 and 2020?

I'm thrilled to announce a new paper in which @ SKates5350, Eric Manning, @TMendelberg and I analyzed data on 108 million (!) homeowner-voters.

See https://t.co/aFY31KxrDQ 🧵 1/

[American Political Science Review @apsrjournal]

With correct link: Just published on APSR First View: "Plutopopulism: Wealth and Trump’s Financial Base" by Sean Kates, Eric Manning, Tali Mendelberg, and Omar Wasow. https://t.co/RlPTlCtzo6

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

@apsrjournal Great to see this out. Link here works: https://t.co/QzqQKtzYmD

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

Randomly finding new music from Gabrielle Marlena on Spotify almost makes up for the horrible UI that stops me from easily finding new music on Spotify

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

Ughhh. Blind squirrel, broken clock, bald guy pic, etc.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Weighting on recalled vote share is a form of herding! It's a way to ensure your polls never get too far out of line with the consensus, or the previous election. But it'll make you miss actual movement in the electorate.

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

I AM going to start telling people “ Literally just plug it into Bayes' Theorem,” though. Absolute banger of a defense when I’m clearly just yapping.

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

At one point, I actually thought he was just cynically taking advantage of the set-up of his field, but now I am more horrified to find out he doesn’t understand it at all.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Arthur you claim to be an expert in Bayesian statistics. Actually quite a lot of information is revealed by n=1 in this case, e.g. the Princeton model that gave Trump <1% chance is much much wronger than one that said p(Trump)=29%. Literally just plug it into Bayes' Theorem.

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

He’s so close.

[G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris]

Annoying that we’ll never get to observe the results of a Biden v Trump 2024, in which some pollsters had Biden and Trump tied with 18-30 yr olds. Those polls were almost certainly measuring something other than pure vote intention but now history has rendered them unfalsifiable

[Pitpanther01 aka BoredSportsBets���� @BoredSportsBets]

Dukes rushing TD 🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

Put more succinctly, the larger the house effect, the less faith you should have that the underlying signal you are attempting to back out was ever there/collected. There is probably a threshold where you are injecting more noise by including polls from that house.

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

Interesting trade-off rarely discussed, but if a house is SUPPOSED to be measuring same thing as everyone else, and they have a large and consistent enough craziness that you think it makes your house effect estimate easy, it's probably fraud and you should exclude entirely

[G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris]

@lxeagle17 One good thing about this is the more observations you have of a pollster getting weird data in one direction the easier it is to fit a house effect, and you can do it earlier in the campaign

[StudiocanalUK @StudiocanalUK]

To celebrate the DVD and Blu-Ray release of the year's most talked about film - we're giving away this Past Lives inspired bundle which includes:

Blu-Ray / DVD
A Celine Song Girls On Tops tee
In-Yun Zine

To enter - follow + retweet and 3 winners will be picked at random.

[Sean Kates @SKates5350]

Answer makes sense but just by percentages, your first guess has to be “Agnes”, right?

[Dolores G. Morris @DoloresGMorris]

Fun fact: I am a philosopher married to a philosopher. Our oldest child has his first girlfriend. He now loves to tell us that he, too, is a philosopher.

Anyone care to guess her name? 😂