R Ni

#Bitcoin #Ripple #Stellar #Tron #Waves #Eos #BNB

[David @david_eng_mba]

Bitcoin’s Christmas Present

Setup
Bitcoin is trading around $89K–$90K, quietly compressing volatility after the October peak near $126K. This calm is not organic. It is mechanical. A massive December 26 options expiry is acting like a lid on price.

What’s Happening Now
• Large call open interest sits at $100K–$118K, with a dominant wall at $100K.
• Put support clusters around $85K–$90K.
• Dealers hedge this exposure by selling rallies and buying dips.
• The result is a narrow range and suppressed volatility into expiry.

This is not distribution. It is pinning.

The Christmas Catalyst:

On December 26, a large share of options gamma expires.

When that happens:
• Dealer hedges roll off.
• The artificial price gravity disappears.
• Volatility returns quickly.

Historically, this is when Bitcoin moves.

Likely Outcomes After Christmas

Upside Gift (Higher Probability)
If spot holds above ~$90K and breaks $100K with volume:
• Dealers must buy to hedge short calls.
• Price acceleration follows.
• Targets: $100K → $110K–$112K, with upside extension if momentum feeds itself.

Why This Matters
Before expiry, Bitcoin looks weak and boring. After expiry, structure changes.

This is a textbook setup: volatility suppressed by design, then released by the calendar.

The Takeaway
Bitcoin’s Christmas present is not a price today.

It is the removal of the force holding price still.

Once the wrapping comes off, movement follows.

[Pak Win #GrowWin @AsahPolaPikir]

untuk menang dalam apapun, kamu harus bisa:
1. tahan kebosanan dari repetisi
2. tahan malu dari penolakan
3. tahan rasa sakit dari kegagalan

[Mr. Wall Street @mrofwallstreet]

#Bitcoin - Full Market Breakdown

In Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis

There seems to be some confusion about my current position in the market so I am making this post to clarify my stance on Bitcoin both in the short term, mid term and long term.

If you have been following me for a while you know that since the beginning of 2025 I have been saying the economy is starting to break down and the Fed needed to start cutting rates immediately to avoid a recession later this year. It was crystal clear that the economy needed easing early in the year. Job data kept worsening while CPI kept falling even though official reports showed rising inflation which was a complete lie. Because of tariffs the reported numbers were much higher than reality and the real inflation numbers were much lower. Economy was breaking down yet Fed decided to ignore.

Easing the economy means adding liquidity to the markets, and this could come in two forms. The first way and most used one is, Fed lowers the interest rate, money gets cheaper, investors borrow more money and liquidity in the markets consequently rises. The second way, is a more aggressive one and its usually used only when interest rates are at 0% or very near and economy needs even more easing. That is the QE (Quantitative Easing), where Fed goes directly to the markets and buys MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) or US Treasury Bonds, adding liquidity to the market directly.

Fed should have cut interest rates at the beginning of the year. By doing so the economy would have received the easing it needed, the market would have resumed its upward trend, and both inflation and unemployment would have returned to healthier levels. And only after that the Fed would decide whether to tighten the economy by raising rates or activate QE after understanding whether or not economy was growing way too fast.

But we know this was not what happened. Fed decided to ignore the only reality. They decided to ignore the fact that unemployment data was getting worse as time passed, and decided to blame the bad unemployment on external political factors such as emigration. They also decided to ignore the fact that CPI was being stated much higher than the real numbers because of tariffs, and during all the time they used both of this argument as excuse to not cut the interest rates as they should have been cut.

As of today Fed still ignores the fact that CPI is being overstated because of tariffs, but they already acknowledge that unemployment data is starting to become concerning and the excuses that were previously used such as emigration are nowhere to be heard, yet again proving that Fed Mafia only acts accordingly to the needs of the people above them and not to the needs of economy. Even knowing that Fed is slowly starting to recognize the bad shape of economy its already too late to take action. Even if they drastically cut the interest rates here it would still take time for this monetary policy to take effect in the economy. Fed is too late! Meaning the only real solution to save the bear market thats coming ahead is a huge liquidity injection in the order of trillions and not in the order of few billions. So, as long as this doesn’t happen, markets will continue to correct until fair value prices that stand way lower in comparison to this levels.

Everyone knows how bullish I was on Bitcoin months ago, until early November where I flipped bearish in the short term as well as the mid term, yet many people refuse to acknowledge whats happening and want to keep being bullish even when all the bullish arguments are gone and the only thing left for bulls is hope. The bullish structure that served Bitcoin broke the same day weekly candle closed bellow EMA50 Weekly, MACD Monthly crossed, and RSI bearish divergence started to play out. All this key indicators that are used to understand where Bitcoin stands in the cycle are showing the start of bear market. We also saw REPO (Standard Repo) market, as well as SRF (Standing Repo Facility) market operations being heavily abused. The AI stocks that are the bone structure of American economy such as $NVDA, $PLTR, $AMD, and many others, starting to fall. All of which Premium shorted! (Join Premium Here: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5) The BOJ (Bank of Japan) is set to increase interest rates signalizing yet another wave of the Japanese carry trade unwind. And last but not least, a factor that I see very few people speaking about, which is the many market makers institutions who went bankrupted in the 10/10 crash, and are now waiting for prices to meet EMA50 Weekly to liquidate tens or hundreds of billions in spot assets.

There is nothing to be bullish about. The bullish arguments such as “QT ended and QE will now start” make no sense and are easily dismissed when you understand that from 2014 until 2017 the Fed kept its balance sheet neutral and only made a few small occasional purchases. The same thing is happening now. The Fed announced a $40bn purchase in the last FOMC and the low IQs are screaming already that is the start of QE. It's not the start of QE! It is just a single operation.

If you still decide to stay bullish in the in the mid term after all of this, I suggest you start preparing to apologize to yourself one year from now. I understand the macro bullishness on Bitcoin. At the end of the day Bitcoin is the single greatest store of value ever created in the history of human kind, because it is the only asset with a truly limited supply and therefore its guaranteed to keep rising as long as the Fed keeps printing money. Still the macro bullishness does not justify being irrationally bullish on short term and on mid term. You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality, and I promise you now that in one year, you will wish to have shorted the retested of the 100-125k range thats yet to come, just to use the same cash to buy Bitcoin again in the 54-60k region and double your holding without any capital injection.

TO MAKE CRYSTAL CLEAR:

I am expecting a retest on the EMA50 Weekly (Currently at 100k) to happen before the next big leg down. I have now orders to short in the 98-104k region, and I am expecting the next target to come to be 68-74k, with the final target in Q4 of 2026 to be 54-60k.

Join Premium for more: https://t.co/Be1Ub3pdG5

[DumpDetected @DumpDetected]

Sebenarnya uangnya ADA.
Buktinya 30% supply $BTC sekarang dipegang oleh institusi & kustodian besar.

Tapi .. Likuiditas itu TERKUNCI, bukan likuiditas yang aktif beredar di market.

$BTC disimpan di treasury perusahaan, parkir di ETF dan D
disimpan di custody exchange.

Ini adalah long-term capital, bukan uang untuk dorong harga harian.

Sebenarnya mini QE kemarin itu ada, tapi skalanya kecil, hanya cukup untuk bikin stabil sistem, enggak cukup untuk menciptakan wave ke crypto.

Kenapa S&P 500 & Gold bisa naik?

ya karena, likuiditas memang ada
Tapi nyamannya masih di aset ini.
Risk appetite belum pindah ke crypto

Memang babi siklus ini ..

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

Well, that was quick. Just a couple of weeks after announcing the end of "Quantitative Tightening" the Federal Reserve will start buying $40 billion of Treasury bills (short-term government bonds) per month.

'Yes,' this means the Fed's balance sheet will start to increase again. As you can tell from the chart, the size of the Fed's balance sheet measured relative to US GDP is in a clear upward trend.

Obviously, the recent turn by the Fed will spark another debate if this is "Quantitative Easing." The Fed will say 'No' because these bill purchases are aimed to provide ample levels of liquidity and (re)building reserves in the financial system and not at pushing the rate down artificially across the curve or to directly stimulate GDP growth.

Debate all you want, it is money printing with a clear focus: keeping the endless debt-refinancing machine going. The financial system is not about managing interest rates to accelerate or slow down corporate investment and household spending; it's about refinancing existing debt.

The swift turnaround from Quantitative Tightening to what we may not call Quantitative Easing also explains why Fed members have grown more cautious about future rate cuts. Inflation risks will rise, and continuing to cut rates will raise even more questions about Fed independence.

But rest assured, the moment the US economy falters, interest rates will go down, and bond buying across the curve will be deployed. By then, the Fed will admit we are back in Quantitative Easing.

[Andrew Leverage @Mr_LeverageX]

📉 Bitcoin is sitting in a classic bear flag — below the megaphone pattern.

And yeah… that usually means continuation down.

If the drop plays out, the $74k–$77k zone looks like the most likely bottom and an aggressive rebound from there would make sense, with BTC being insanely oversold.

Nothing is guaranteed, but this chart is flashing a warning.

Hoping the relief rally is already underway… but prepare for all outcomes. 📉

[Nic @nicrypto]

QE isn’t the next stop.

Historically, the sequence is end QT → rate cuts → rule tweaks → crisis → QE.

We’re only at the first steps now.

Real QE doesn’t arrive during routine pullbacks. It arrives when something breaks.

History makes it very clear:

Nov 2008 (QE1): Lehman collapse, credit markets froze
Nov 2010 (QE2): Deflation risk, 9%+ unemployment
Sept 2012 (QE3): Recovery too weak to stand alone
Mar 2020 (QE4): COVID shut down the global economy

So if you’re positioning for QE, you’re also positioning for the drawdown that forces it.

Survive THAT and you could be rewarded.

[R Ni @SLNzava]

@QuintenFrancois @grok jelaskan soal ini

[Snow ❄️ | Quant @snowinjon]

$BTC is currently in a "Liquidity Sandwich."

The Order Book Depth reveals the game:

Above: Sell Walls. Price is struggling to push through the supply overhang.
Below: Buy Walls. Smart money is waiting to catch the drop, not chase the pump.

We are range bound until one side exhausts the other.

[ファー☽̶☾2026 ke Jepang @bbhbaekyoong]

ini teman aku yg dari Aceh juga, bahkan video2 yang ada di hp mereka tu disuruh hapus!!!! anjing banget

[KataNalar @ZAEffendy]

ALL EYES ON SUMATERA ❗️❗️
#PrayForSumatera
#StopDeforestation

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

Find Your Trading Style

1️⃣ Scalping
1m → 15m
Hold: Sec–Min

2️⃣ Day Trading
15m–5m → 4H–1H
Hold: Min–Hours

3️⃣ Swing Trading
4H → 1W
Hold: Days–Weeks

4️⃣ Position Trading
1D → 1M
Hold: Weeks–Months

5️⃣ Trend Trading
4H–1D → 1W–1M
Hold: While trend lasts

6️⃣ Breakout Trading
5m–1H → 4H–1D
Hold: Until breakout fails

7️⃣ Range Trading
15m–1H → 4H
Hold: Inside support–resistance

8️⃣ News Trading
1m–5m → 15m
Hold: Before/after events

9️⃣ Algorithmic Trading
Auto entries → Auto analysis
Hold: Depends on system

🔟 Position Sizing / Portfolio Trading
1D–1W → 1M
Hold: Long-term rotations

[CasiTrades 🔥 @CasiTrades]

🚨XRP Doing Exactly What We Discussed in Friday’s Livestream! 🚨

The market is dropping hard today... exactly what we expected from the subwave 2 setup discussed on Friday. Breaking to the first $2.04 Wave 3 target confirms this as a subwave 3, and the next key level is the extended Wave 3 target at $1.90. 🎯

📈Selling pressure is slowing down, and RSI is building a bullish divergence. Once $1.90 hits, I expect a bounce up toward $2.04 to retest resistance ((again)) for a larger Wave 4. The $1.90 aligns with Bitcoin reaching its macro .382 at ~$79k.

After the $2.04 backtest, we have 2 scenarios for final low- still both valid!
1⃣A double bottom around $1.80 (Coinbase target- $1.88 on Binance)
2⃣A deeper sweep to the $1.64 .618 macro support.

The subwaves of the wave down from the $2.04 will hopefully pinpoint where this finally ends. This is a very critical week to pay attention and grab these lows!! ⌛️
XRPUSD vs BTCUSDT

[₿rett @brettmacro]

A close below the 100w EMA (green line) has always sent Bitcoin to the 200w EMA. It has historically dumped to the 200w very quickly after a weekly close below the 100w.

Before the comments start.
1) Yes I know there are 6 days left before the weekly candle close.
2) Yes I know ETFs exist and this time is different.
3) Yes I know we topped before the halving and this time is different.
4) Yes I know Dec 1 started QT and you think that means QE.

[CryptoAD @Aditya___D]

🚨 Bitcoin’s November close at $90,382 is the definition of a mixedBitcoin

• PRICE: Still holding the long-term parabola

• RSI: Cooled off but nowhere near a cycle top

• 200W MA: Firmly trending up long-term structure intact.

• Realized Price: Sitting comfortably above it, meaning the market is still in net profit.

• S2F Model: Drifting under the projected path… historically the calm before acceleration

In simple terms:

The macro shook the market, but the long-term chart says we’re mid-cycle not end cycle

Short-term confusion

Long-term conviction

Classic $Bitcoin

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

Fibonacci Is a Probability Tool — Not Magic:
1.Fibonacci
2.Breakout
3.Reversal
4.Elliott Wave
5.Failure Value Gap
6.Candlesticks
7.Heikin Ash
8.Moon Phases
9.Renko
10.Harmonic Patterns
https://t.co/JRjV1wNi4L and resistance
12.Dynamic S&R
13.Trend lines
14.Gann Angels
15.Momentum Indicators
16.Oscillators
17.Divergence
18.Volume

[Seth @seth_fin]

No matter how it goes from now on. If you followed me you are still in the money by a good margin.

I have said this many times.

Taking profit never made anybody poor.

Your health is your wealth.

Don't over leverage and gamble too hard. Don't stress too much and get mentally ill like many on CT.

$BTC needs to be a major part of your crypto portfolio. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset you can go all in on.

Diversify into other asset classes. have real estate, gold stocks.

I'm the voice of reason amid Chaos. Crypto is Chaos. This is what you get in a unregulated market.

There are now ~26 million crypto tokens available. Most of them are rug pulls. Be safe and have a good risk management.

[Sjuul | AltCryptoGems @AltCryptoGems]

Every major #Altseason in history began when QT ended or QE began.

In 2017, liquidity was rising.
In 2021, credit was easy.

When money was expanding, altcoins thrived.

When QT starts, they contract.

[academy Rad @academyrad2018]

Every BTC top → QE
Every BTC bottom → QT We’re 195 weeks into the longest QT ever.
Fed confirmed: QT ends December 1st, 2025 (in 2 days). Last two times QT ended → BTC.D crashed,#Altseason exploded within weeks.
Altcoin bottom is here.
Liquidity is coming.
#Bitcoin #QE #QT