Sam Lazarus

Early to the inevitable. Today's heretics are history's protagonists. Investing accordingly @M31Capital

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

Nathan absolutely nails it with this critique.

Perhaps the only person I know who is seeing past the immediate picture of what the midterms mean and instead writing a very clear playbook for what is about to happen and why.

I'm biased (of course) but he's a required follow!

[Nathan James Montone @NathanMontone]

1/ Dalio's right that the midterms change the players, not the underlying problems. But his Big Cycle framework underweights the dynamic interrelationship between Money, Technology, and Power which is currently being disrupted on all three fronts simultaneously.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

There are so, so many things happening in the world right now that it can feel like a complete deluge trying to sort through it all.

But the one thread I know that matters is getting together in person in rooms that celebrate curiosity and inquiry.

Learn more below.

[M31 Capital @M31Capital]

📍Introducing: The Heretical Science Speaker Series (H3S) by M31 Capital

H3S is a private, invitation-only series hosted in New York City, bringing together leading scientists, unconventional thinkers, investors, and entrepreneurs to examine scientific questions mainstream institutions have neglected, dismissed, or suppressed.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@kaitlancollins Live Cam. Please. Now.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

I can’t rationally make one, but a gun to my head and I’d say it’s a credit card of some kind.

When you innovate on the interface and move the purchase point further upstream / more convenient you can run the financial rails.

—> Make things easier to buy
—> Harder for ppl to control purchasing

+ Interest

= Profit

No different than how the airlines (or basically anyone now) make most of their money on debt repayment.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

I’ve spent the last few years investing in the disability tech space (which is often the root of a big interface shift) and I have a LOT of questions about this tech.

Unbelievably cool in demo form. Lots of practical questions and design considerations that will prevent adoption at scale if they haven’t really worked through edge cases.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

The advantage in Venture Capital comes from information asymmetry, not consensus.

Yet, the short-term metrics that VCs chase are all built around consensus-building.

Always worth noticing which investors want to be validated by likes / follows vs DPI / return.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

The future of AI is definitely going to be a massive shift in interface and input....but historically a lot of those interfaces have come built alongside the disability community (eg. siri for blind users, SMS for deaf mobile users, touch screen for carpal tunnel).

Y'all would benefit from getting in touch with users in the disability community who have thought about input for quite a long time.

Lmk if you want those contacts/connections! Lots of investors in the space too.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@shouldntspeak Besides selling secondaries there is no reasonable outcome for venture investors at this stage and the whole thing makes absolute zero sense.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@andyflattery @cg_geometry Somehow TWOD are getting better too. This came out a month ago:

https://t.co/Eutwtv5I4M

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

https://t.co/Ecwd6a57zR

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@grant__gregory Biased, but some firms are running it back to first principles --> https://t.co/W7xtCSUVpT

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@adam__xyz Biased but us.

Example of the kinds of things we're looking into: https://t.co/ueSHWNwYIX

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@ryanndngg @akcushman This was the norm for a lot of female founders in SV for quite some time and undoubtedly still is.

What folks don't want to hear are the individuals / organizations who knew about it, but didn't do anything when alerted to it.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@gregisenberg Great way to reel in those grandparents by showing them in the ad as......an annoying intrusion that needs to be hung up on?

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@iwasrobbed @joshelman Exactly. AI Hardware should be just extreme personalization. And, hopefully, personalization that comes with feeling more easeful because things get done faster.

Why Apple chose to simulate a stressful and rushed shared environment is completely beyond me.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@AutismCapital This is the single best advertisement ever if you are Sam Altman and Jony Ive.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

@toddsaunders Fully convinced that the OpenAI hardware project with Jony is screen-less.

You could not have dreamt up a better product announcement if you're long on screen-less tech as the next form factor.

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

Absolutely hear you that we should do our best to take founders at their word.

I can't attribute it to any one-specific person without outing them, but you can sure as hell bet that larger firms would love to see fewer smaller firms upstream of them.

And ever there was a time to test the waters on eliminating competition....it would be now. But maybe the elegance of the game theory here is too logical?

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

Assuming that Open AI's hardware project (in partnership with Jony Ive) is a screen-less device utilizing a new input language.....

This ad will go down as one of the worst ads in technology history.

I could write a dissertation about how every single beat is horrific.

[Austen Allred @Austen]

This might be the first time I’ve ever watched an Apple ad that made me actively not want to buy the product

[Sam Lazarus @SLazarusM31]

Well I would just play it out logically:

About 75% of early-stage firms are likely going to die out in the next 18-24 months because of unfavorable economics.

If I'm a huge fund, I'm looking to eliminate as much competition as I can or to force them into primarily secondaries...which misaligns those smaller funds (who need liquidity) away from founders who want folks around for the long haul.

If I was a huge fund....why wouldn't I test the waters for beginning to put smaller funds out of business (via eliminating early-stage pro-rata) by dressing up that argument under the guise of eliminating an Epstein-affiliated, Russia-affiliated early-stage fund.

You could not script out a better test balloon, which should make you ask if it's scripted.