Used MCTS to mathmatically map the likely outcomes of Elon vs OpenAI, here's the reult:
📊 Outcome Probabilities:
• OpenAI wins outright (case dismissed / standing rejected) — ~35–40%
• Split outcome — Musk wins on liability, OpenAI keeps structure, court adds oversight/monitor — ~30–35%
• OpenAI self-remediates (voluntary reforms, minimal remedy) — ~10–15%
• Settlement after liability finding — ~10–15%
• Musk wins meaningfully ($1B+ disgorgement or structural injunction) — ~5–10%
• Musk gets $134B or forces OpenAI back to nonprofit — <2%
🔥 Bottom line:OpenAI holds the edge in the most probable paths, but Musk has a real 30–35% shot at a split outcome where he’s legally vindicated — even if he doesn’t get the full remedy he wants.
This case is not a foregone conclusion. It turns on Brockman’s testimony and how the judge reads equitable standing.
👀 Watch tomorrow’s hearing closely.
I asked AI to play out 10,000 possible outcomes for tomorrow’s Fed decision using Monte Carlo Tree Search and evidence-based economic rules.
Result:
Hold rates: 9,998 / 10,000 paths, about 99.98%
Cut rates: 1 / 10,000 paths, about 0.01%
Hike rates: 1 / 10,000 paths, about 0.01%