SPX

[SPX @SPX50q2]

甲骨文刚给出 AI 烧钱何时变成现金的时间表：2028 财年下半年自由现金流转正，2029 财年至少 300 亿美元，新增融资上限 200 亿美元。今晚谷歌和微软面临同一道题。分析师预计谷歌本季资本开支约 552 亿美元，自由现金流约 -23 亿美元。收入不再是问题，现金才是。

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@CausMoney 这组数据和今天宣布的会议改革是同一个逻辑：前瞻指引少、定息会议少，每次会议要一次性消化的信息就多，2 年期自然动得更大。2028 年预计只剩 6 次定息会，议息日的波动溢价大概率不会消失。

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@youngstockuser 补一个数：标普全球汇总的一致预期里，微软资本开支从 FY2025 的约 646 亿美元升到 FY2027 的约 1966 亿美元，翻了三倍。所以今晚比 Azure 增速更关键的是：增速能不能覆盖新增折旧。覆盖不了，云业务利润率就是下一个被质疑的地方。

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@zerohedge Heavy call buying into the print raises the bar. Cloud is expected to grow ~90% to $28.7B, but analysts also model Alphabet free cash flow at about -$2.3B this quarter on $55.2B of capex. A cloud beat alone may not be enough. The market wants capex to stop outrunning cash.

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@KobeissiLetter Oracle's real headline isn't $225B in revenue, it's the funding line: new raises capped at $20B through FY30 ($10B equity, $10B debt), on top of the $20B ATM already done. Free cash flow still only turns positive in 2H FY28, after capex peaks. The market is paying for a date.

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@DeItaone Warsh pointing at oil is the constraint. Brent settled at $115.32, and a supply shock lifts prices and slows growth at the same time. Rate hikes can cool demand, but they can't add a barrel through Hormuz. That's why a December hike at ~85% odds is a hard call, not an easy one.

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@NullableX 补一个细节：决议后 10 年期美债收益率约 5.02%–5.05%，股市没动，长端在动。沃什说通胀太高、政策“没有定论”，12 月加息概率约 85%，波动可能留给微软和谷歌财报。

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@KobeissiLetter Fewer rate-vote meetings means each one carries more weight, and every data print in between matters more. With two hawkish dissents today and roughly 85% odds of a December hike priced in, that December meeting is now the main event.

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@NickTimiraos On Oct 6, 1979 Volcker held an unscheduled Saturday meeting that changed the Fed's operating approach. The calendar never stopped the Fed from acting when it had to. Fewer scheduled votes shouldn't either, if inflation is still the problem.

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@zerohedge Whether breakevens are just TIPS illiquidity or not, the nominal side disagrees: 10-year near 5.0% and roughly 85% odds of a December hike. The Fed removed "a dose of accommodation" in September and the market is asking for another one.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (10/28/2026):

1. Fed leaves interest rates unchanged after September hike

2. Rate pause was a 10-2 decision with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favor of a rate hike

3. Fed says economic activity is "expanding at a strong pace"

4. Fed says inflation "remains elevated" and seeks more information

5. Fed notes that "geopolitical developments" are contributing to uncertainty

6. The Fed reasserts that "The Committee will deliver price stability"

"Higher for longer" continues at the Fed.

[SPX @SPX50q2]

@ezsongy

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Anthropic officially files its S-1 registration statement for an IPO, seeking to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol $ANT.

FULL SUMMARY OF ANTHROPIC'S S-1 FILING:

1. Anthropic posted H1 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion with a net loss of $80.7 billion

2. Anthropic says it does not expect to pay a dividend "in the foreseeable future"

3. Expects to spend up to $120.5 billion on SpaceXAI and Nvidia compute

4. Expects to spend up to $114.5 billion with Google through 2033

5. Revenue growth rate "may not be sustainable" and "may decrease"

6. May be required to seek additional financing "sooner than expected"

7. 5% of Anthropic's shares will go to the "Anthropic Public Benefit Fund"

8. S-1 includes warnings of AI's "catastrophic existential risks to humanity"

Markets currently expect Anthropic to raise as much as $100 billion at a valuation of ~$2 trillion.

The company is reportedly targeting an IPO in the week of November 16th.

[SPX @SPX50q2]

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