Steve

Just a guy who likes to learn

[Steve @SShideler]

@brandonjcarl I'm not an expert in this space, but isn't compute needed by everyone and a giant bottleneck?

Is there another big set of compute out there Google could get cheaper right now?

If not - then price being "high" would make a lot of sense, no?

[Steve @SShideler]

Lol at conspiracy theorists

Getting the GPUs is only like 20% of the bottleneck

Building out the dataceneter (which has a bunch of it's own bottlebecks right now due to demand)

Then getting the power to run the center are just as hard

SpaceX built out a massive center in hopes Grok crushed it

Grok didn't do well so they are the only company on earth right now with extra compute

Just like the Anthropic deal making a ton of sense, this one does too

[Steve @SShideler]

Where is he losing money? Lol

Tesla makes money

Twitter makes money and is significantly more valuable than its cash flow due to its data (look at reddit for an example)

SpaceX makes money
Starlink makes money
Xai now makes a lot of money thanks to the compute deals

This is without any of his big bets even hitting yet....

[Steve @SShideler]

@ipostrandom21 @nikitabier any chance you have something in the works to stop these accounts from posting a video and then in the description completely lying about what it's about?

[Steve @SShideler]

@HeresJohnny4456 @mike_daddino Someone tracked the % of shots he falls on vs the other guards in the playoffs. He falls 2x as much as others like Brunson or Mitchell and actually drives to the hoop less

[Steve @SShideler]

This is what people said about Amazon for 15 years

Profits don't matter when hyperscaling

Scaling and gaining market share are almost all that matters and Anthropic especially is crushing that right now

You can pretty much look at any tech winner in the last 2 decades to understand how this works

[Steve @SShideler]

The being a billionaire isn't from a company hoarding profits and giving them to the owner.
It's from what people value the company as.

Amazon famously made zero profit for it's first 15 years - it actually lost a lot of money, but was still worth billions because of it's stock value

Bezos became a billionaire from owning a large part of that stock

If Bezos "shared" anymore of that revenue with employees for those 15 years it would have gone bankrupt, however, on paper, he was a billionaire because of his ownership of Amazon

Since then Amazon has obviously become profitable, but that's not what made him a billionaire

I don't care enough to look it up, but I'd guess his CEO salary was actually quite low.

If his salary was a billion dollars, that would be a different story.

[Steve @SShideler]

@cyber_memez_T1 @SawyerMerritt What's wrong with Amazon Leo? That it doesn't exist yet.

I fly Delta 10+ times a year, am a "Platinum" member, etc and this decision means that BEST CASE scenario is I have crap wifi for the next 2 years, but most likely longer.

So yea...it's a weird decision

[Steve @SShideler]

Who builds the data centers themselves? Who does the electrical, plumbing, hvac, etc?

Who builds all the components in the data centers?

Who maintains them?

It's a ton of different employees, small businesses, etc that are a part of the supply/build chain for these large builds

[Steve @SShideler]

@navuud @MrYoniLevy We had this same issue and then a couple days into the month starting they, out of nowhere, 5x'd our limit

Multiple tickets before that didn't yield anything

[Steve @SShideler]

@szjewski @KTTECHPRIVATE I have the same question!

[Steve @SShideler]

@mikepat711 My 14.3 can't follow navigation. It gets off on exits 7+ miles before it's supposed to, misses turns, etc..

Really weird behavior and feels like a significant downgrade

[Steve @SShideler]

@R0BBIE @HiltonHotels This guy should definitely face consequences

Expecting a front desk employee to be the one to dole out those consequences is off base though

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Hello Julia, sans aucune ironie, c'est top que tu prennes le temps de te renseigner. Mais le problème quand on lit Marx aujourd'hui, c'est qu'on prend pour acquis sa prémisse de départ, alors qu'elle a été démontée scientifiquement il y a plus de 150 ans.

Toute la pensée de Marx repose sur la théorie de la valeur-travail. L'idée que la valeur d'un bien vient de la quantité de travail nécessaire pour le produire. Si tu acceptes cette prémisse, alors oui, tout son raisonnement tient. Le capitaliste "vole" la plus-value du travailleur, l'exploitation est mathématique, la révolution est inévitable.

Sauf qu'en 1871, trois économistes (Menger en Autriche, Jevons en Angleterre, Walras en Suisse) découvrent indépendamment la même chose : la valeur n'est pas objective, elle est subjective et marginale.

Un verre d'eau dans le désert vaut une fortune. Le même verre à côté d'une rivière ne vaut rien. Le travail incorporé est identique. Donc le travail ne détermine pas la valeur. C'est le consommateur qui valorise un bien selon son utilité marginale dans un contexte donné.

Exemple concret : tu peux passer 1000 heures à tricoter un pull moche que personne ne veut. Selon Marx, ce pull a énormément de valeur (beaucoup de travail incorporé). Selon la réalité, il ne vaut rien. Parce que personne n'en veut.

À l'inverse, Bernard Arnault crée des milliards de valeur non pas parce qu'il "exploite" mais parce qu'il a su anticiper et organiser des désirs humains à grande échelle. La valeur est créée par la coordination, pas extraite par le vol.

Cette découverte (la révolution marginaliste) a invalidé tout l'édifice marxiste. Pas pour des raisons idéologiques, pour des raisons scientifiques. C'est pour ça que plus aucun département d'économie sérieux au monde n'enseigne Marx comme un cadre d'analyse valide. On l'enseigne en histoire de la pensée.

Maintenant, le truc important. Si ton intention en lisant Marx c'est d'aider les pauvres (c'est une intention noble), alors tu vas être surprise par ce qui suit.

Regarde les chiffres de la Banque mondiale. En 1820, 90% de l'humanité vivait dans l'extrême pauvreté. Aujourd'hui, moins de 9%. Cette chute historique ne s'est PAS produite dans les pays qui ont appliqué Marx. Elle s'est produite dans les pays qui ont libéralisé leur économie.

Chine post-1978, Vietnam post-1986, Inde post-1991, Pologne post-1989. À chaque fois qu'un pays libéralise, des centaines de millions de gens sortent de la pauvreté en une génération. À chaque fois qu'un pays applique Marx (URSS, Cambodge, Corée du Nord, Venezuela), c'est la famine et les goulags.

Ce n'est pas une opinion, c'est l'expérience la plus massive jamais menée en sciences sociales. Plusieurs milliards de cobayes humains, sur un siècle.

Donc paradoxalement, si tu aimes vraiment les pauvres, la position la plus cohérente n'est pas d'être marxiste. C'est d'être pour la liberté économique. Parce que c'est empiriquement la seule chose qui a jamais sorti massivement les gens de la misère.

Pour creuser, je te recommande trois lectures qui vont changer ta vision :

"La Loi" de Frédéric Bastiat (court, lumineux, gratuit en ligne)
"La Route de la Servitude" de Hayek
"Économie en une leçon" de Henry Hazlitt
Bonne lecture, et vraiment chapeau de chercher à comprendre plutôt que de rester dans tes certitudes. C'est rare.

[Steve @SShideler]

Soon the AI will just say "want me to build what Salesforce does for free?" And you'll just say "yes proceed" and it'll you 1 shot it and you won't need Salesforce anymore.

We're ~6-12 months away from that.

A lot of people can pretty easily build it now, but the shift will be when it's that level of an easy button to do

[Steve @SShideler]

Well when this is a thing it will mean that the cost of labor for all things is virtually zero

Our view of economics and how things work can't even fathom what a labor cost of zero means for how the world works

What does a house, clothes, food, etc.. cost when labor is near zero?

Seriously - what would a house actually cost? The material can be made/chopped/refined with free labor. Shipped almost free. Then put together almost free.

The cost of rarer commodities will be the big unknown. Does land value skyrocket? Do rare earth's become so valuable that any need of them in a house offsets the cheapness of everything else? Or do they all come down with deflation too?

Food, clothes, transportation, and school will all be things that go to near zero cost though.

[Steve @SShideler]

He's not saying anything about what we want

He's saying that's the best solution to a big problem

You can say you want to keep the satisfaction of earning, but that's being naive and childish

AI/Robots are coming for all our jobs.

It's not a matter of if, but when they are significantly better than us at everything

You aren't stopping it

You can pass laws to force a job to stay in place, but that satisfaction of "earning" when you have a "pity job" and the AI does 10x more and better work than you won't be there anymore

He's just being realistic about the potential solutions we will have when the time comes

Others need to be realistic as well because just not wanting things to change isn't a solution

[Steve @SShideler]

AI/Robots are coming for all the jobs

It's not a matter of if, but when

And there is no stopping it

Thinking otherwise is naive

So start planning

Save/invest more

Start learning a job that will be around longer

Look for ways to be fulfilled outside of work

Etc

[Steve @SShideler]

All that can be true

But the reality is that AI will be better than you at your job at some point.

There won't be fulfillment there anymore either way because if you are somehow kept on at it you'll know it's for "pity" and that fulfillment from being valuable won't be true anymore.

Elon is solving for the economic issue that will arise from AI/job loss.

Humans will still need to solve the fullfillment issue.

Only in the rarest cases (like athletes) will that fulfillment be able to continue to come from your job.

It can still come from work. You can have a garden, build a shed, etc.. but it'll most likely have to come from work you do for yourself and not for others.

[Steve @SShideler]

He's been saying for 10 + years that AI/robots will eventually replace work and we'll need a UBI type system

He's also been saying for a long time that the Gov is overspending

When he got out of his DOGE circus he said that he realized the only way to save the Gov debt was to speed up AI/Robotics to grow the economy faster than the gov debt can destroy it

He does change his tune on things, as any human should over years with new information, but these pieces he has been pretty consistent with