D🅰️niel Fischer

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$MRLN: Crossroads Capital Ryan O'Connor Discusses Merlin's US Special Operations Command CDR Approval

Tomorrow June 5th @ 1PM ET / @AboveAvgOdds

https://t.co/ZE0K31RMBo

[🅰️NYCitizen @ANY__Citizen]

News flash!! 🚨

Space sector rally apparently called off—despite the most anticipated IPO of modern times, which is heading toward the largest addressable market of any comparable IPO in history due to strong labor market data 🤡

$SPCX $ASTS $RDW $RKLB $FLY $BKSY $PL $SPIR $SATS $LUNR $SATL $VOYG

[$ASTS SpaceMob 🅰️ @ASTS_SpaceMob]

The new position i started is $MRLN

I see a similar pathway as when $ASTS was at these levels.

I believe $MRLN will play a large part in the military’s shift to autonomous aircraft’s. Merlin is setting themselves up to essentially be SaaS for military jets.

They are currently working on the C-130J cargo aircraft (fleet size of ~400) & Air Force's KC-135 (fleet size ~350 )

Integration fee on each plane is $3m and recurring software subscription is $2m

Let’s say they capture only these two programs, that’s $1.5bn ARR and $2.25bn startup fee.

You slap a $PLTR or AI/Tech multiple on these sales and you get a way substantially higher market cap than it is today under $1bn.

We expect them to capture more military contracts, integrate with cargo aircraft’s & eventually commercial, as they are already working with Ameriflight, World Star Aviation, Quikjet Airlines. The TAM here is massive.

More notable partnerships: GE Aerospace, Honeywell, Northrop Grumman, U.S. Air Force, U.S. Special Operations Command

I think $MRLN is setting up something massive here.

Since this page is $ASTS related we will continue coverage on Merlin at @MRLNFlightClub and keep here $ASTS related.

You can find the rest of our report below 👇

[KH @mc_khristina]

$MRLN after hours‼️

[leki ⚔️ @mkfilko]

$MRLN is up 20% in AM after it has completed a design review with USSOCOM. This company is my next $BRUN. I wanted to post this write up tmr and have had it written for awhile now. Here goes!

$MRLN trades at 5.6x FY27 revenue while Anduril sits at ~13x and Saronic Series D at ~24x. It can 2x from here and still land at Anduril near-term multiples. Huge shoutout to @ShawarmaCapital for most of the details in this write up. Please check out his substack for all the DD on this name, you won’t regret it!

Let me give you a brief rundown using my framework:

AI enabler or beneficiary? Enabler. DO-178C Level A certified autonomy software replacing pilot labor on military and commercial airframes. Aircraft-agnostic — Merlin Pilot has flown across 7+ airframe types including KC-135 tankers and C-130J transports. ✅

Leadership. Founder/CEO Matt George rebuilt after his prior startup Bridj failed in 2017. Spent 7 years pre-IPO landing real defense contracts before going public. Bench is the signal: GM Mobility Erin Staine-Pyne is ex-Senior Military Advisor to the Under Secretary of the USAF, commanded the 62nd Airlift Wing's 2,400 personnel. SVP Engineering Pablo Gonzalez ran Northrop's N-UCAS / X-47B program. Board has former SecNav, former USAF Comptroller, Amazon's first CAO, 100% equity rollover at deSPAC. ✅

Rev Quality. $7.55M FY25 revenue, $1M Q1 FY26. Concentrated in three customer commands: USSOCOM C-130J IDIQ ($105M program ceiling, ~$16M obligated through CDR), USAF KC-135 19-month integration contract, and MDA SHIELD (first MDA contract on file). ✅

Rev Growth. $32M FY26 guide (4.2x FY25), Roth-implied $90M FY27. $105M USSOCOM IDIQ is the development authorization, not the production cap — task orders amend at PEO level once airworthiness clears. Per-aircraft economics ($3M integration + $2M annual recurring license, 10-15yr aircraft life) applied across 300 C-130Js + 376 KC-135s already addressable via existing contracts = $300M+ run-rate per platform at steady state. High probability of contract-to-revenue translation because Merlin is the only public name shipping DO-178C Level A flight control across this airframe spread. CCA Layer 3 brainstem is additive — USAF goal of 1,000+ Collaborative Combat Aircraft by 2030. ✅

Moat. DO-178C Level A flight control cert is 3 to 5 years and $200 to 400M of capital for an Anduril or Shield AI to spin up from zero. Reliable Robotics is the only public-market name with comparable cert pedigree, and only on Cessna 208. Merlin spans seven airframes including the KC-135 and C-130J. Validator stack: Honeywell Anthem MOU (Oct 2024), GE Aerospace Autonomy Core co-development (Sept 2025, 14,000 FMS aircraft installed base), Northrop Grumman Beacon cohort enrollment, Boeing Defense technical bench engagement.✅

Asymmetry. At $8.17, EV ex-preferred ~$505M = 5.6x FY27 revenue (Roth-implied $90M). Anduril at ~13x near-term. Saronic Series D at ~24x. A 2x to ~$16 just brings Merlin to Anduril multiples. Bear bounded by $183M cash on the balance sheet (~$3 to 4 realistic floor). Sell-side PT is Roth at $15 (+84% upside, was $25 pre-Q1). ✅

Conviction Gap. Only one analyst covers it. Six P0 catalysts in 111 days: HONA Investor Day Jun 3, Q2 print Aug 14, AFA Conference Sept 14-16, KC-135 autonomy demo Sept 30, lockup expiry + Series A Preferred CDR Sept 16, Boeing MOU window Jul-Sept. Float is 3.6 to 5M shares freely tradeable with 99.93% borrow utilization at the April peak. Any catalyst is mechanically amplified. ✅

TL;DR: Pilots are expensive and the military already outsources flying to contractors. Merlin builds the autopilot software that lets one pilot fly what used to take two — or zero pilots eventually. The hard part isn't the AI, it's the FAA-grade certification that takes 3-5 years to build, and Merlin is years ahead of anyone else trying. The contracts are signed, the customers are real (USAF, USSOCOM), and the market is pricing it like none of that will translate into revenue.

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$MRLN: bro

[TheKOOKReport @thekookreport]

This provides some sense of scale

$ASTS

[PharmD🅰️z @pharmdaz]

$MRLN

https://t.co/dHBA13cpM1

[Shawarma Capital @ShawarmaCapital]

$MRLN is up 40% afterhours right now.

I’ve had a free 10-part series on Merlin Labs sitting on my Substack for months.

Part 10 dropped recently and has information nobody else has published - stuff I dug up that you won’t find in any analyst report or press release.

Go read it. It’s free.

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$MRLN: TD Cowen initiated research coverage yesterday 6/3/26 with a Buy Rating and $11 PT

Roth Capital has a Buy Rating and $15 PT

I think there's a good chance both raise their Price Targets on the completion of USSOCOM CDR

[D🅰️niel Fischer @SaabDaniel]

I’m going to @spacanpanman’s upcoming Space. Will you join too? https://t.co/pWrLJywU04

[Merlin FlightClub @MRLNFlightClub]

$MRLN HITS $10 AFTER HOURS 🚨

Merlin Labs is up 39%+ after hours after announcing a major step forward for its military autonomy program.

The successful Critical Design Review with USSOCOM confirms their autonomous flight architecture meets rigorous standards, unlocking the next phase of aircraft integration and testing for the C-130J platform.

✈️

[KH @mc_khristina]

$MRLN I’m hearing “this is everything … the door that unlocks the rest!” So … suffice it to say, this is BIG NEWS.

[Ry🅰️n O'Connor @AboveAvgOdds]

@mc_khristina Hard to imagine how we don’t 2-3x on the news given the fundamental implications.

In any case, this was the catalyst above all others and it came a full quarter sooner than expected. Just beautiful.

[Ry🅰️n O'Connor @AboveAvgOdds]

Boom 🛫 🙌🏼 ✈️ !! $MRLN

Merlin Successfully Completes Critical Design Review for C-130J Autonomy Program with USSOCOM https://t.co/sz7i1GojVl

[D🅰️niel Fischer @SaabDaniel]

Yes please!
$MRLN

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$MRLN: Back to $15-17 again?

[Shawarma Capital @ShawarmaCapital]

$MRLN post-CDR,
Cowen recently initiated coverage with an $11 PT, based on a $10.94 DCF that applies a massive 60% execution-risk haircut.

Their undiscounted Sum-of-DCF is $2,257M, equating to $27.50/share before the discount.

With CDR in the rearview, that 60% risk discount has to shrink.

Strip it out, and Cowen lands at ~$27, right in line with Roth’s $25.

Keep in mind, this only models one product, at what the share price should be NOW.

They are due to announce many more (3+) products this year as they scale recruitment for CDR acceptance.

[Reformed Tr🅰️der @Reformed_Trader]

$MRLN making a move in ah on this news

*NFA

[Tut C🅰️pital @kingtutcap]

$MRLN: Let’s go Merlin!!!

[Merlin FlightClub @MRLNFlightClub]

Massive de-risking for $MRLN

Keep up the good work @MerlinAero @NotMattGeorge 👏