It took six weeks for "the markets" to realize there was a global pandemic despite non-stop reports. It took six weeks for "the markets" to buy Nvidia stock despite the grandiose and public demonstration of talking computers. It'll take six weeks to realize the strait is shut.
Is it just me, or is the Strait of Hormuz situation giving off major early-2020 COVID vibes? 🚩
The "everything is fine" official narrative feels eerily familiar just before the wheels fall off.
Case in point: The US Energy Secretary says the reserve release will take “about 120 days to fully deliver.” That’s 4 months. We don’t have 4 months if the tap stays off
Living in Oz, I’m looking at our 30-day fuel supply and thjinking:
⛽ How long until we see rationing at petrol stations?
🛒 When does the run on supermarket shelves and toilet paper actually start? (dont ask me why by Australians love going for toilet paper first)
If the Strait stays closed for even a few more weeks, the "just-in-time" supply chain is cooked.
We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends for the folks at the bottom of the chain.
Hopefully Im wrong. But the gap between the "official word" and the reality at the bowser is widening fast
Im off to supermarket, pharmacist and petrol station, back later 😉
Why China will win AI in one chart.
Power hungry Nvidia chips are not the way forward for the U.S.
It is not just the total power advantage. It is the slope.
My post here was inexact. My post elsewhere was more complete, below.
This chart shows why China will win if Nvidia’s chips are the way forward.
Nvidia's development roadmap is essentially a power consumption roadmap. and innovation is just figuring out how to power and to cool bigger, hotter silicon. Power needs keep climbing because efficiency gains cannot keep up with compute install.
This chart shows that is not a path to victory for the U.S.
Not only is China way ahead, it will continue to press its advantage - the slope is the key. That is acceleration of power generation development.
US transmission grid development is actually decelerating due to permitting issues while China is building transmission at will to match power output.
In fact, to the extent this is an AI arms race, US companies are plowing capital into a race it is structurally positioned to lose.
So it cannot be an AI arms race, if the US can help it.
The US needs to get away from bigger and bigger power hungry chips and innovate with AI-tuned ASICs like nobody’s business. Nvidia has a death grip on development through its investments and agreements with so many important US AI companies and startups.
DOJ Antitrust is investigating and should act, but Trump probably stops that. It is left to the market to figure out LLMs are not the way to AGI or ASI, and stop feeding the beast.
Can our biggest companies make the pivot?
Simplified rules to profit as a trader
1. Never add to a loser
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5. Don’t pick trend changing tops
6. Don’t pick trend changing bottoms
And most important of all:
7. Let the market make the decisions, not your ego
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If you are correct, Congressman, then the FDIC and others will prevent the US from participating in the most important phase of the internet revolution. Like you, I believe regulators are using crypto as a scapegoat for their own lapses in oversight of traditional banking.
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