Namn…Burg

crush it!

[ForensicQuant @ForensicQuant]

$SLB - yesterday saw 3.9x vol, slamming past the 58.05 level. Riding the $XLE wave.

[Leshka.eth ⛩ @leshka_eth]

🚨 HEAR ME OUT: THE REAL FINANCIAL SHOCK MAY HIT IN 2027

2026 was not the crisis

It was the warning

U.S. debt crossed $40 trillion

The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007

Washington doubled long-bond buybacks

The United States and Japan jointly intervened to save the yen

China’s local-government debt machine grew to roughly $10 trillion

And yet the MOVE Index is still near 72

Markets remain calm because policymakers have successfully bought time

But time is all they bought

Three global fault lines are now being pushed into 2027:

1️⃣ THE U.S. TREASURY FUNDING PROBLEM

The Treasury is buying long-term bonds while continuing to issue enormous amounts of new debt

Buybacks can improve liquidity

They cannot eliminate the deficit or stop interest costs from rising

If investors keep demanding higher yields, Washington will eventually face a choice:

Allow borrowing costs to rise

Expand buybacks again

Or force the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity

Every option creates another problem

2️⃣ THE JAPANESE CARRY-TRADE PROBLEM

The historic U.S.–Japan intervention pushed USD/JPY down from nearly 164 toward 158

But intervention does not remove the trillions of dollars built on cheap yen funding

It only delays the unwind

If Japanese yields continue rising or USD/JPY returns toward 164, pensions and institutions could bring capital home

That means selling foreign assets — including U.S. Treasuries

Japan could become the force that pushes an already fragile U.S. bond market over the edge

3️⃣ CHINA’S $10 TRILLION DEBT PROBLEM

China’s yuan is currently strong

But behind it sits 71.4 trillion yuan of local-government financing debt

Beijing can keep rolling that debt over

But every rollover transfers more risk into the banking system and drains money from productive growth

One major default would not remain inside China

It could weaken the yuan, hit commodities, tighten emerging-market funding and send more capital into the dollar

That brings the pressure straight back to U.S. Treasuries

So what could trigger the 2027 shock?

Most likely:

A weak U.S. 10-year or 30-year auction after buybacks have already failed to contain yields

That is the moment the market realizes Washington’s support is no longer enough

The sequence could look like this:

→ The 30-year yield breaks above its 2026 high

→ MOVE surges above 100

→ Dealers demand larger concessions at Treasury auctions

→ The dollar initially spikes

→ USD/JPY returns toward intervention levels

→ Carry trades unwind

→ Liquidity disappears from technology stocks and crypto

This would be PHASE 1

A global funding shock

Not another 2008 banking collapse

A crisis inside the sovereign bond market that prices almost every asset on Earth

Then policymakers respond

Treasury buybacks expand again

The Federal Reserve opens liquidity facilities

Dollar swap lines return

Japan receives additional access to dollar funding

And some form of temporary yield control becomes possible

That begins PHASE 2

Long-term yields finally reverse

Real yields collapse

The dollar peaks

Gold breaks out

Silver begins outperforming

Bitcoin recovers

Commodities accelerate

And the liquidity used to save the bond market creates the next inflation wave

These are the levels I am watching:

30-YEAR YIELD → Above 5.34%

MOVE INDEX → Above 100

USD/JPY → Back toward 164

CHINESE YUAN → Sudden reversal lower

TREASURY AUCTIONS → Larger tails and weaker foreign demand

One signal is noise

All five moving together would be the countdown

2026 WAS THE YEAR THE SYSTEM STARTED DEFENDING ITSELF

2027 COULD BE THE YEAR THAT DEFENSE FINALLY BREAKS

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@gratefultrader Coinbase

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@pepemoonboy $EQT

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

🚨 MOST PEOPLE AREN'T READY FOR WHAT HAPPENS BELOW $58K

I’ve been trading crypto for 9 years and have never seen anything like this

Everyone is screaming that bottom is in, or we're going to 30k, but it won't be either of these

Reversals never happen without shaking out majority

The chart won’t follow the same pattern forever

If this macro pattern continues, Bitcoin must eventually drop to around 30-32k in a few months, despite macro and global demand

But at some point, every pattern has to break

When? When the fundamentals and market sentiment no longer support it

A pattern should confirm reality - not contradict it. If it does, forget the pattern. It has outlived its usefulness, just like every pattern before it

If you look at previous cycles, every major bottom took time to form. You had months to buy near the lows

And that's exactly why almost nobody did

Everyone was waiting for lower prices
Everyone wants to buy the capitulation wick

But what if that wick never comes?

Then nobody buys

$16k was obviously a great BTC entry last cycle

I think everyone in crypto knew that... Yet almost nobody bought.

Not because it wasn't cheap, but because everyone was waiting for a nice round number: $10k/$15k

Or they bought too early, just like many are doing now, deployed all their capital, lost conviction, or even sold because they were convinced BTC had much further to fall

That's how bottoms are formed

My base case is that we'll spend the summer ranging, then slowly bleed toward $50k

After that, maybe one final flush to ~$42k, just enough to convince everyone another capitulation, "the final dump to 30k" is coming

But it never comes, just like it never came last cycle or the one before it

Many things about BTC price action change over time, but one thing never does

When it's the top, almost nobody believes it's the top. When it's the bottom, almost nobody believes it's the bottom.

Today 50% think that the bottom is in
Other 40% wait for 30-40k

That's why I think it's not a bottom, and we won't bottom at 30-40k

But if you read the sentiment differently, or read this later, and you already think today's price is attractive but believe it'll go even lower, don't overthink it

Most likely everybody thinks so

So just buy and hold until $240k

It's much better to buy at $50k than wait for $30k that may never come and end up not buying at all.

That's why I've already bought 30% here

Will DCA at 58K, 55K, 52K, and 50% at 42k

Want to remind you that I called each major top and bottom of the last 7 years, including exact 126K BTC top:

https://t.co/OcIL5ehN7o

And soon i will make this account private

If you read this, you probably get the biggest informational edge in your lifetime

So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Ray Dalio: "The USD may lose its reserve currency status."

Tariffs and political tensions are eroding trust in the USD.

Commodity prices are skyrocketing, and central banks are now holding more gold than the USD for the first time in decades.

Ray Dalio saw this a year ago.

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

Have I missed anything?

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

$UPST
What is your thoughts guys?

[Nautilus Research @NautilusCap]

2025 vs. 4-year Election Cycle Composite.

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@VELO3DMetal Velo
Why have you ghosted the investor lately

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@ChrisMOASS First we are going down lower then after we are going to Se new highs

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@jimcramer Brics

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@jimcramer I think the animals are the brics and they’re up to something

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Not only can't the #Fed win a fight against #inflation without causing a #recession, it can't do so without causing a far worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008. Worse still a war against inflation can't be won if there are any bailouts or stimulus to ease the pain!

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

When 30-year Treasury yields were 3% in April 2019, the official YoY #inflation rate was 1.8% and falling. Real yields were positive 1.2%. Today the official YoY inflation rate is 8.5% and rising. Real yields are negative 5.5%. To equal 1.2% real nominal yields must rise to 9.7%!

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@solana Wow!!!😍

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@benjamincowen Polkadot!!

[Namn…Burg @Sabiti555]

@benjamincowen Polkadot, Cardano Ada, Vechain, ETHEREUM