Safety Margins

Journaling 15-25 stock portfolio with margin of safety focus. Own businesses, don't rent stocks. SuperInvestor Cloner. Not advice. #Stocks #ValueInvesting

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Investment Strategy

1. Own businesses, don’t rent stocks.
2. Focus on individual businesses, not industries or popular themes.
3. Protect capital and boost returns with a Margin of Safety at purchase.
4. Select high-quality businesses.
5. Keep a long-term mindset as an owner.

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@HatedMoats Hmm, what's your estimate of intrinsic value?

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@HatedMoats I've owned $META in my personal acct since Feb 2022, avg cost $159.48. I bought when nearly everyone had given up on it. I'd buy more at $525 if I had the capital. The problem with running fully invested is needing to sell something else I like to buy anything, sigh.

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@marketswithmay Congratulations on getting $SPCX. I received half my request at the $135 IPO price, about a 1% position. I think it's worth $150-160, so a small discount. It makes sense if you have an ownership mindset. I'll buy more when the price pulls back . . .

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Excited to have received half my requested shares in $SPCX in my personal acct at the IPO price of $135; awaiting first trade today but it looks to rise 20-30%. My estimate of business value is $150-160; assumes orbital data centers are successful with 20-25% mkt share by 2035.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Thank you! 🚀🚀🚀

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Net interest income on client cash is largest source of rev. (84% in ‘25), but $SCHW advised clients to move cash to higher-yielding choices amid Biden inflation spike. Put clients 1st, rewarded with more assets. Asset mgmt industry is highly fragmented, with $SCHW growing share

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Added Schwab $SCHW this week, a 2% starter position, $86 avg cost. Business value est. is $115-120, a ~26% safety margin, a wonderful business at an attractive price.

25th business in portfolio; filled all our planned slots. Glad to add this strong, growing, profitable business

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Mr. Market seems worried AI-driven cash sorting will compress $SCHW healthy margins. Possible, or AI may improve efficiency, lowering costs further, attracting more assets. $SCHW a master cutting costs, costs-to-client assets an industry-leading low of 0.12%, vs. ~0.40 for others

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Well, look at $NOW now!

Took a position starting late March growing to a 3.5% position by early April, avg cost $99, thinking the AI-threat sell off was overdone.

Relieved the rebound happened so soon.

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@marketswithmay Thanks, @marketswithmay, nicely put. Socialism is a method to gradually transfer private property to those who control government. Communism is a method to rapidly transfer private property to those who control government. Both are a disaster for the vast majority of people.

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@marketswithmay Exactly! I think the sell off was due to narrow focus on the supply constraints while missing the 35% revenue growth despite those same constraints.

I added to my position today at $143, building patiently towards a 6% position.

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Probability-weighted 3-year annualized expected return on $ANET from current levels: ~9.5–10%

Bought more at a ~24% discount to the weighted BVE after the classic sell-the-news reaction.

What am I missing?

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

Added to $ANET today at $143 after the post-earnings selloff. New avg cost: $123, position 3.9% of portfolio on 6% target.

Updated 5-year DCF Business Value Estimates (BVE):

Bull $232 | Base $192 | Bear $142

Probability-weighted BVE: $189.50 (~24% discount at current levels)

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

• Bull (25%): AI capex accelerates (deeper deployments + new platform wins). Growth > 22% CAGR, margins expand, market rewards outperformance.

• Bear (25%): AI spend moderates or delays due to supply constraints. Growth slows <22%, margins under pressure, but core moat intact

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@marketswithmay Thanks @marketswithmay for focusing on the relevant facts, not the political spin. You make a lot of sense that way. Well done!

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@HatedMoats Thanks! It’s been gut-wrenching to watch, but trying to invest with my head not my gut :)

Researching now $CSGP likewise gut-wrenching, but trying to understand whether it’s a reckless or insightful CEO buying https://t.co/pb3ww0n472.

Thoughts?

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@marketswithmay Sweet! Always find your views informative. Thanks, you’re a gem!!

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@marketswithmay Do you follow $CSGP too? It’s been on my watchlist for years, but was always too expensive. Now it appears cheap. But is it?

[Safety Margins @SafetyMargins]

@marketswithmay Good idea, makes sense.

Researching $CSGP now. It’s been quite profitable but price has been hammered recently. Overreaction to https://t.co/gDRzemuPgK investment and AI worries, or recognition of long-term value destruction by a reckless CEO and deficient Board?