Shmuel Shmuel

Snarks from the sidelines while the world burns. Would've played the fiddle, but doesn't know how.
All usual caveats apply.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 Both side could lose this war simultaneously. No one has actually won WW1.

This could very well result in one or more, heavily armed, failed states (one of them with nuclear weapons). A Libya/Yemen in the middle of Europe.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EmmaMAshford And how might the F-22 mafia prevent the USAF from scrapping it? There is a 60K ft. interception capability gap (!!!1)

Also, slow news week.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 Get redy for articles about a "balloon gap"

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 Moon is a harsh mistress. AI starts as a support tool for organization of complex operations, gradually taking leading role.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EmmaMAshford The Doomsday Clock is like "counting to 3" with the kids. You go 1, 2 and then start with fractions and even decimals.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 It's a Facebook-isation of Twitter. Killed Facebook, will kill Twitter.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 One of the quiet things rarely said out loud is that realistic training is extremely hard, especially in today's standards (personal and environmental safety, abundance of enabling assets, extreme ranges, EM spectrum issues etc). Most militaries don't really train as they fight

[Lauren Dagan Amoss🧜 @DaganLauren]

https://t.co/Y9aR2gwT8r

#פידצבא @OrenHazan1 ואני מרביצים תורה על המדיניות הביטחונית של הודו ועל הקשר לישראל
תודה @maarachot_idf על הבית החם והמקצועי
ובגיליון יש מאמר מעולה של @IditShafran אז בכלל כבוד לחלוק את הגיליון איתה!

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

Lessons learned about fratricide from the IDF

#miltwitter

[Boaz zalmanowicz @boaz2904]

Colonel (retired) Boaz Amidror's important book on "friendly fire", which is based on IDF lessons, has been translated into English. Highly recommended. https://t.co/MWPQRIH8rw

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@RikeFranke No nap for you. Come back 1 year...

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EmmaMAshford Don't forget the slow moving internal political crisis you guys are in. It's more like "America can simultaneously shoot itself in both legs by juggling loaded shotguns with one arm tied behind its back" metaphor.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 Kind of amazing considering the amount of time, money and human resources the US put into the issue. You could expect that even statistically, some good policy/competent implementation would come along at some point. But no.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 We can't predict the future. We can only guess. All these (mostly on line) bickering are ego issues, related, to a no small degree, to the small size of the DC "policy wonk" community and its general, prevalent, "autism" (so to speak).

So, take it from me - who cares?

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 Listen, really, it doesn't matter. What matters is that the analysis was sound and honest at the time it was made. Wars are an emergent phenomenon. E.g. Russian decapitation effort on the 24th could have worked and then everything might have looked different.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

https://t.co/GjimIL9HUc

A reminder that wars have a long tail.
Don't go pick up stuff in old battlegrounds.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@EvansRyan202 Given the ammunition use rate in this war, I'd say the problem is deeper than this or that stockpile. It is an issue inherent in every PGM, and indeed, in the entire "concept". It will not be solved with more money.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@LethalityJane Also, retirement might worsen the decline. People who work their entire life and then suddenly stop - it doesn't always agree with them. That's, at least, how it came down with my grandfather.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

It's going to be weird if the Ukrainians take a deal that's in their interest and then the 12 Armored Twitter Brigade demands they keep fighting to the last Ukrainian.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@ExumAM You are not the target audience. It's as if in a magic show, you would be standing behind/to the side of the performer, watching in slow motion.

[Shmuel Shmuel @SamDavaham]

@KofmanMichael But is it even relevant? The issue of whether or not a promise was given is besides the point. The point is that for Russia, NATO enlargement is perceived as threat and has been so for decades. The question of "who is right" based on "history" is ancillary at best.