In 1968, RFK was assassinated. MLK was assassinated. We had major race riots. Massive DNC chaos in Chicago.
America was on fire. Politics were a disaster. It was probably horrible to live through. An excruciatingly bad year for our nation.
Yet we sent 3 men around the moon. One year later we would land on it.
What’s the lesson you need to learn?
That even as things around you seem to be falling apart, humanity advances.
We make strides into the future regardless of whats in the news.
It’s why optimism about the future will always win. We are the greatest species to ever exist, even with all our faults.
Forecasting the FOMC's first rate cut (orange bars) is a waste of time: $SPX 'anytime' returns (green bars) are better than returns after the first cut. The past year ($SPX up without a single cut) is just another example. From Hulbert
China - thoughts...
a) the Street said "uninvestable" - yes twice 20% ago.
b) stocks are acting like this into a much talked up FX (currency) devaluation?
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The US long-end is a global wrecking ball and its impact is picking up steam.
Global stocks, spreads, bonds and FX all feeling pain as US yield rises have accelerated in recent weeks. Highlights how the pressures for US yields to press higher will be felt globally. Thread.
The $ARM IPO lock-up period expires on March 12th. The current float is 102.5 million shares, with SoftBank owning the remaining ~930 million shares.
The company has a market cap of $143 bn, book value of $5 bn, and forward revenue of $3.2 bn.
This isn't a game of valuation but a good old fashioned Mexican standoff.
Everyone knows it is a short but they are waiting for others to start the cascade so they don't get caught in a short squeeze. But, when it is "safe" to get short, there are less than a million shares available for borrowing and the borrow rate will go through the roof.
SoftBank knows its selling will embolden the entire market to take the other side of their trade. But they have no choice but to sell, and everyone knows they know it.
Meanwhile, there is a mysterious third party who has bought a load of call options on Arm and other semiconductor stocks, hoping to keep the market favorable to semiconductor bulls... so they will put in a bid for Arm when SoftBank sells.
The dealers are the bullet. Doesn't matter who fires first, they will delta hedge and take down the target.
Get your popcorn ready. This is the biggest show in financial markets since GameStop.