Swarm riders and Swarm-native companies
AI-use even among highly AI-native people is power-law distributed.
There seems to be a new class of people — call them “swarm riders” — who are capable of consistently commanding large swarms of agents to productive ends.
This is a new kind of managerial skill, analogous to the skill it takes to manage large organizations of people, but wholly different in nature and of course more technical.
Based on the swarm riders we know (including many at @Tempo and @Paradigm), these people are capable of productive token spend that is 1000x-10000x higher than median software engineers, and 100x higher than top 5% Claude Code users.
The art of swarm riding is different from software engineering and more akin to machine learning, where practitioners grapple with black box systems: defining reward functions and evals, transmuting non-verifiable problems into verifiable problems, running experiments, etc.
Swarm-native companies are a new class of company founded by and populated by swarm riders. These companies are organized around swarms in a way that conventional companies will struggle to replicate, as the cost of internal human coordination is sand in the gears of an effective swarm. Effective swarm-native companies will define the right reward functions and evals, remove functional and bureaucratic barriers, and then let the swarms cook.
We’ve gotten to see a few swarm-native companies up close — reshaping financial rails @Tempo, building a new gaming platform @Spawn, cyber swarms at Cathedral Systems — and it’s clear these teams wield a significant advantage over pre-AI teams.
Some questions I’ve been wondering about:
1) How fast will swarm riding diffuse through the economy? The implications for token spend could be significant.
2) Can swarms be effectively adopted by existing companies or will it generally track the formation of new swarm-native companies?
3) What becomes scarce as swarm capabilities themselves commoditize (through frontier models becoming better at swarming, swarm capabilities built into harnesses, etc)? Cultures and teams that can define reward functions well and otherwise get out of the way?
openai just let every business claim a profile inside chatgpt. my honest reactions:
1/ this could be the google my business moment for ai, and a lot of agencies made a great living (millions!) in the 2010s just claiming and fixing listings for local businesses
2/ ads can now click through to a conversation with your agent instead of your website (interesting)
3/ every business agent runs on context the company writes, and most brands are going to be bad at it
4/ your product feed is your new seo. boring, and it matters more than your blog now in some ways if you think about it
5/ the dashboard tells you how often chatgpt mentions you but HIDES the prompts and your competitors, so you still can’t see why you’re winning or losing
6/ discovery topics shows what chatgpt already cites you for, which is basically a free content calendar
7/ agents are only open to us ecommerce and online services right now. plumbers, dentists etc are next, and so lots of opportunity to help main street here
8/ businesses can’t see the conversations, so nobody knows which chats turn into sales yet
9/ i’m not sure people want to talk to a brand’s agent. i think they’ll want their own agent to talk to it for them
10/ 1.2 billion people use chatgpt every week. i’d go claim my profile before finishing this post if you can
We’re investing in British startup @TendrilsCompute through @UKSovereignAI, backing their ambition to reinvent the computer processor as part of a $30m funding round.
Turning British ingenuity into new industries, good jobs and growth across the country.
Our history tells us why it matters!
GFY
Propaganda bullshit. Expected, I suppose, from a Nashi propagandist.
I have 3 miniature humans that aren't my hobby - they're my entire raison d'être. To say nothing of my delightful wife that I greatly enjoy spending as much time with as possible.
Every single late night at the office, business dinner, investor event/retreat, trip to a supplier, visit to a customer, etc is a direct trade-off against my being an involved and present father (and husband). It's a difficult balance! And yet I've done it.
The real talk side of the "hustle culture" bullshit that nobody talks about is how your work output falls off a cliff around ~60 hours. Maybe a bit more if you're super young, but I doubt it. In most cases, that 80th hour at your desk is performative - it's theater.
Balanced lives (whether it's raising kids, sailing, tinkering on hobby cars, fitness, whatever) directly lead to balanced thinking and a FAR more sustainable lifestyle than "all work no play."
And, more importantly, it models for your employees that balance is actually good for output, morale, retention, etc.
Building big, impactful companies is a marathon. An ultra marathon. 10 years of marathons back to back. Your mind (and body) do need to actually rest and restore, or else you burn out. Fact of life.
Nonsense claims like this are propaganda from the (typically) VC crowd who want to see MOAR HOURS as if that makes PMF happen, under the misguided belief that hours in linearly equals company value out.
Have hobbies. Have kids. Take a vacation with your partner. And also work hard to build your company. The balance is difficult to find, but very doable.
The more customers you visit in person,
The more customers you close.
The more revenue you retain.
And the more they buy from you.
As true for in the Age of AI as it ever was.
A London lab is beating frontier models without any pre-training.
It's Ineffable, started this year by David Silver, who led AlphaGo at DeepMind. Sequoia backed it.
Pat Grady, co-steward of Sequoia, explains:
1. Every LLM today starts with pre-training on the world's knowledge
2. Silver's question: humans aren't pre-trained, they explore
3. Ineffable trains with reinforcement learning only
4. Grady says its models already outperform the frontier
5. In a fraction of the time, at a fraction of the cost
If he's right, the most expensive step in AI could become optional.
Full breakdown here:
https://t.co/drmTc0lj2O
Something no one tells you when you're 20yo:
MD at an investment bank = sales
Partner at a consulting firm = sales
Partner at a law firm = sales
CEO at a startup = sales
Partner at a VC firm = sales
CEO at a AI lab = sales
Sales is the lifeblood of any company, something I feel Europeans need to be reminded of more often than Americans.
In a scenario where the Republicans’ pre-midterm position in the Senate and House was maintained, ANT could have reached a $1.7 trillion valuation going public.
I would be surprised if it can command higher than $1.2 trillion given Democratic opposition to data centres.