The Mag 7 just committed to ~$680 billion in AI capex for 2026. That’s where the drawdown is coming from.
Microsoft beat earnings at $4.14 EPS versus $3.91 expected. Amazon hit its $1.95 estimate exactly. Alphabet crushed revenue. These companies are selling off while reporting strong results, which tells you the market has stopped rewarding AI spending and started punishing it.
The math: last year the four hyperscalers generated $200 billion in combined free cash flow. This year they’re guiding to nearly $700 billion in capex. Amazon alone expects $200 billion in spending, and Morgan Stanley projects its free cash flow goes negative by $17 billion. Alphabet’s FCF is forecast to drop ~90%, from $73.3 billion to $8.2 billion. Alphabet did a $25 billion bond sale in November, then another $20 billion sale in February. Their long-term debt quadrupled in 2025 to $46.5 billion.
This is why Microsoft is down 28% and Amazon is down 21% while beating estimates. The market ran these stocks up pricing in AI revenue that hasn’t materialized at scale. Microsoft has 15 million paying Copilot users out of 400+ million Microsoft 365 customers. That’s under a 4% conversion rate on the single most visible AI product in enterprise software.
The S&P 500 staying near flat while the Mag 7 gets destroyed is the market telling you exactly what it thinks: the other 493 companies are worth more today than they were six months ago, but the companies writing $700 billion in checks against future AI revenue are worth less.
Stock price correlation across the hyperscalers has dropped from 80% to 20% since June. The Mag 7 is no longer one trade. The market is picking apart who can show receipts on AI spending and who’s still writing IOUs.
@falamb3 u r amazing n congrats on the superhit show and on PCT reaching the finals. wanted to ask the legends to share their favourite moments from Ind-pak clashes which they were part of. lots of love from India. #askthepavillion#T20Iworldcup2022#INDvsPAK202#Askthepavilion
Is it me or others find the SBI server down whenever they need to transfer money urgently? @TheOfficialSBI please correct the issue ASAP! It's been few hours now.
#sbidown
I have no association with @satyanadella other than that we went to the same school @HpsBegumpet and played on the same ground (a few years apart!) and yet I feel a sense of belonging that he is Chairman of Microsoft.
How to make cricket waterproof? Discuss.
1. Plastic bat and ball.
2. Pitch made from sponge.
3. Play only in Narendra Modi stadium - Dry State.
4. ???
#WTCFinal2021
Join Voice of Cricket @bhogleharsha in reliving the first ever #WorldTestChampionship as he flips through pages of a 2-year calendar to chronicle India and New Zealand's journey to the Final
#WTCFinal2021#INDvNZ https://t.co/bZZaeTxYgZ
@RBI@cyberabadpolice@CCBBangalore@KamalPantIPS @quickcreditin Quickcredit who has vacated their office in Hyd and in hiding since the raid is now sending fake legal notices and whatsapp messages. Screenshot shared the details of the perpetrators. Request police to take action