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Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier. This has been a primary topic of discussions we've had at OpenAI in recent weeks.
Committing to having independent evaluators with employee-like access is a great idea, and we will do the same. We'll have more to share soon.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: https://t.co/OGyPb7yaYt
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
JUST IN: Ukraine just deployed anti-drone soldiers to Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The country Russia has been bombing with Iranian Shahed drones for three years is now defending Gulf states from the same Iranian Shahed drones.
Read that sentence until the full geometry of this war becomes visible.
Zelensky announced on 10th March that Ukrainian military teams equipped with low-cost interceptor drones and electronic warfare systems have arrived in all three Gulf states this week, with a separate team deployed to Jordan for US base protection. The deployment follows direct requests from Washington and calls from Gulf leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince MBS.
The interceptors cost between $1,000 and $2,000 each. A Patriot missile costs $3 to $4 million. An Iron Dome Tamir interceptor costs $50,000 to $100,000. A Shahed drone costs $20,000 to $50,000. Ukraine’s battle-tested ramming drones, some 3D-printed and produced at rates of up to 950 per day, achieve over 60 to 70% kill rates against Shahed swarms at a thousandth of the cost of a Patriot. They are disposable. They are scalable. And they have been tested against the exact weapon system they are now deployed to counter, because Iran designed the Shahed and Russia has been launching them at Ukraine since 2022.
No other country on Earth has more operational experience killing Shaheds than Ukraine. No other country can offer that expertise at this price. And no other country needs something from the United States as desperately as Ukraine needs Patriot batteries for its own survival.
This is the quid pro quo nobody saw coming. Zelensky is not donating expertise. He is trading it. Ukrainian drone killers for American air defence missiles. Shahed interception capability for Patriot deliveries. The country that cannot defend its own power grid without Western systems is now defending Gulf oil infrastructure with indigenous technology cheaper than anything in the American arsenal. The leverage is extraordinary: Ukraine offers the one capability the Gulf urgently needs, at a cost the Pentagon cannot match, in exchange for the one capability Ukraine urgently needs and only Washington can provide.
While the US strips THAAD and Patriot batteries from South Korea and ships them to the Gulf at enormous logistical cost, Ukraine arrives with $1,000 drones in cargo containers. While Ghalibaf mocks American escorts as PlayStation, Ukrainian teams set up electronic warfare jammers on Gulf airfields. While the White House blames a staffer for a deleted post about an escort that never happened, Ukraine delivers the capability the post falsely claimed existed.
The Iran war just merged with the Russia war through the one weapon system they share: the Shahed drone. Designed in Iran. Manufactured for Russia. Launched against Ukraine for three years. Now launched against the Gulf. And intercepted in both theatres by the same Ukrainian operators using the same $1,000 technology.
Iran built the drone. Russia scaled it. Ukraine learned to kill it. And now Ukraine is selling that knowledge to the countries Iran is attacking, funded by the country Russia is fighting.
The circle is complete. The wars are one.
Full analysis below.
https://t.co/eMrt5qYYst
What Kyiv endured last night, cannot be called anything but a deliberate act of terror. A sustained, 7 hour coordinated attack—over 550 drones and ballistic missiles launched onto the people of Kyiv, families running into metro stations, basements, underground parking garages, mass destruction in the heart of our capital.
Launched immediately following the call between Washington and Moscow, this was one of the most severe assaults of the entire war, a clear demonstration of how Moscow interprets diplomacy, intended purely as a message.
There must be consequences—not eventually, but now. Strengthened sanctions. Immediate delivery of air defense systems. A shift from caution to clarity.
The Kremlin is watching the world’s reaction. So are others.
Today’s Russian newspapers on Prigozhin’s armed uprising:
“Russia displayed its vulnerability, to the whole world & to itself.”
“The events of 24 June will have long term consequences for the country…” #ReadingRussia
Instead of a thousand words.
Borodyanka, Ukraine, Apr. 6, 2022
This photo of a cupboard with dishes and a rooster has become a symbol of Ukrainian resilience.
📷: Elizaveta Servatynska/Suspilne
@Leftfield Leftism = one of my favourite albums of all time.
An absolute masterpiece!
(cc @claregarnett - remember when we danced in an empty Reading festival tent to the entire album from start to finish?)
@FelicityHannah There's some new research focused on the extraordinary level of support undertaken by businesses to support staff during cost of living crisis - Top of the list is salary increases.
I've just emailed you the details. Hope it's of interest!