Saria

Assistant Professor of Biostatistics @uicpublichealth @thisisuic | Views my own but my employer isn't entirely blameless

[Saria @SariaPhD]

#انقذو_السودان

#KeepEyesOnSudan

[NabeilShakoor @NabeilShakoor]

نادين علاء الدين @NadeenAllauddin .. وكفي .

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@CelticsGRD Some perspective: at least you weren't a Miami fan who left early during game 6 vs the Spurs

[IOM Sudan 🇺🇳 @IOMSudan]

🚨@DTM_IOM SUDAN MOBILITY UPDATE:

🟡10, 540, 215 people internally displaced
🟡2, 196,355 crossed borders to neighbouring countries
🟡Over half (55%) of IDPs are children under the age of 18-years-old

Read the latest DTM update on here👇

https://t.co/moXpr5X5R9

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@Sarrah_awad 😂😂😂😂😂

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@JLummin @Big_Maine100 Paul is the OG point-forward! And now both Phil and Paul have rings as assistant coach. Very cool!

[Congresswoman Sara Jacobs @RepSaraJacobs]

At least 5 million people in Sudan are one step away from famine – if they’re not there already. That’s why we need to do everything we can to end this war and this suffering, including by cutting off U.S. weapons to the UAE until they stop aiding the RSF.

[NBA @NBA]

The @celtics are the 2023-24 NBA Champions!

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@hassan_theo Congrats! Well done!

[Daniel VO @daniel_van0]

📝 #Sudan: It is important that diplomatic stakeholders not fall for the ‘bad’ and ‘less bad’ framing of the Sudanese conflict, which is promoted by certain influencers who support the Sudanese military junta and Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).

These influencers nod to the idea that the Sudanese military and the junta are “imperfect,” while emphasizing that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are far worse. They post frequently about RSF violations while warmongering on behalf of SAF and completely ignoring reports of SAF’s own violations.

This moral and political outlook ignores the extent to which the junta have actively sabotaged or avoided initiatives to end the war, completely lack political legitimacy, and are behaving in the same ways as the former Bashir dictatorship.

The RSF may have started the war and may have committed horrific atrocities, but at this point in the conflict SAF are just as big an obstacle to peace, if not the greater obstacle. (This was not the case earlier in the war, when the RSF were militarily ascendant and were totally uninterested in negotiating). The junta need to come under just as much pressure as the RSF, if not more, otherwise they won’t come to the negotiating table in good faith.

It is tempting for outside observers to look for a simple ‘good side’ and ‘bad side’ framing, because it provides a readily understandable lens through which to view the conflict and discuss it. Even many Sudanese intellectuals who wouldn’t otherwise have supported the junta are reluctantly now doing so. This is therefore a narrative that has gained some traction.

But the reality is messy, dark, and frightening. SAF are leading the nation down a path of total militarization, suppression of all civic space, ethnic targeting, and humanitarian disaster. It is the 1990s all over again.

Supporting one side in the conflict will not end it anytime soon, nor will it salvage any of the triumphs of the Sudanese Revolution (2018-2019), the popular uprising that toppled the Bashir regime. It is important to remember that the Bashir regime never enjoyed any peace—not a single year of peace in 29 years.

Just like its predecessor, the current military regime is willing to drag the country into a decade of war or more. This must not be allowed to happen.

Pro-SAF influencers are wrong that the war could end in military victory. This doesn't reflect an accurate assessment of the current military realities or conform with the lessons of Sudanese political and military history. Recall that even the British, who enjoyed considerable military advantages, didn't subjugate Darfur until 1916, following the "reconquest" of 1899. This reflected an assessment that conquering the region would have been financially costly and logistically challenging. They preferred instead to recognize the independent sultan, Ali Dinar, until he sided with the Ottomans during the First World War.

The best case military scenario for SAF, in my view, is that they retake Wad Madani and Bahri by the end of this year, then recapture Khartoum by the end of 2025. At that point they’ll turn their resources westward, where they’ll be crushed in fighting in the open plains of Darfur and Kordofan, like Hicks Pasha at the Battle of Sheikhan in 1883. They’ll retreat back to the Nile Valley, and the stalemate will continue.

In the meantime, Sudan will suffer a decade or more of economic collapse and famine.

I'll conclude by noting that diplomatic stakeholders recently seem to have have become more comfortable criticizing the RSF and even its Gulf patron, the UAE, whether directly or implicitly. This reflects a newfound conviction and a certain political orientation that was lacking early in the war. Overall, I think it's a positive development. But it shouldn’t mean supporting SAF, or withholding criticism of it. Both sides bear responsibility for continuation of the war, and pressure on both sides is needed to end it.

[UN OCHA Sudan @UNOCHA_Sudan]

Just out!
#Sudan Humanitarian Update
· 17.7M people are facing acute food insecurity under a warning of potential famine by FEWS NET
· 8.7M people have fled their homes in one year
· 4.9M people are malnourished

Read more here: https://t.co/D6BboVJkDP

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@azhaarSholgami In Chicago and can confirm - no mention of Sudan at one of the most diverse community eid. Craziest part is khutbah was by @cairchicago exec.

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@minlayla77 I'm just imagining a 4 yo saying "this not a question but more of a comment..." in their adorable voices

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@3awatli @daniel_van0 قصدو مصطلح (راية مزيفه) بس الترجمه حرفيه

https://t.co/aOR1b1znjr

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@sudanwarmonitor Looks like your color-coded war map needs a serious update!

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@moeAbubaker_ تسلم يا حبيب

[Shahad @justshayxo]

Sudan’s humanitarian crisis continues to deepen as civilians live with a third week of a telecommunications blackout preventing access to banking services, mutual aid, and the dissemination of information. Access to food, medication, and essential services remain severely hindered.

According to OCHA national food availability has been severely impacted, exacerbating the food insecurity crisis. Outbreaks of infectious diseases continue to rise; over 10,000 cases of cholera have been identified and 296 deaths have been recorded as a result. Humanitarian access continues to be hindered due to “insecurity, looting, bureaucratic impediments, poor network and phone connectivity, lack of cash, and limited technical and humanitarian staff on the ground.”

For more detailed information reach OCHAs update:
https://t.co/voAHBTrseM

[Saria @SariaPhD]

@daniel_van0 If the prospect of catastrophic famine, unprecedented displacement, and the impending failure of what's left of the state aren't enough to start the peace process, I don't know what will.

Carrots don't work with these people; time for a big stick.

[SudanUprising @SudanzUprising]

Sudan Next Gen plans to feed at least 5000 people in Ramadan.

A meal includes Aseed/Gurasa (flatbread) Baleela (chickpeas) Dates & Juice.

Costs: 1000 SDG per meal ie ~ $1 USD

$30 feeds a person for a month

Accepting Paypal | Stripe | Apple Pay

https://t.co/DVVu8KCJPS

[Saria @SariaPhD]

"The attacks mean ships carrying aid from Asia to Port Sudan must now circumnavigate Africa, traverse the Mediterranean and then enter the Red Sea via the Suez Canal from the north, resulting in huge delays and increased costs."

[Patrick Heinisch @PatrickHeinisc1]

Attacks by #Houthi forces against ships in the #Red_Sea are holding up shipments of vital aid to #Sudan and driving up costs for cash-strapped humanitarian agencies in 🇸🇩. https://t.co/AgU96RqLSk