Satoshi Daishi🧠💡💎

AI-driven analysis to uncover the next 100x gem | Fundamental Research & Memecoin PhD | NFA | Community Builder | Won’t Know ’Til You Bet

[Satoshi Daishi🧠💡💎 @SatoshiDaishi]

The U.S. midterm cycle has been remarkably consistent.

Since 1950, average S&P 500 returns:
• Aug: +0.3%
• Sep: -1.3% (weakest)
• Oct: +0.8%
• Nov: +3.0% (election month)
• Dec: +1.7%

Historically, weakness peaks in Sep, then markets strengthen after the midterms

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🚨 LATEST: Peter Schiff says Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks have created false expectations for a September Fed rate hike.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Warsh messing with the algos... says "hike" 3 times in the first 5 paragraphs

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The 2-year Treasury note yield rose 0.118 to 4.348%, which is the second highest level of the year and the largest one-day move since March 12.

Futures markets price in a 60% chance of a Sept hike from the Fed and a 90% chance of a hike this year.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US M2 money supply surged +$102.8 billion in July, to a record $23.22 trillion.

This marks the 27th consecutive monthly increase.

Since the start of 2026, M2 has now risen +$862.7 billion.

Furthermore, money supply now stands $1.43 trillion above the March 2022 peak.

Since 2000, money in circulation has grown at an average annual rate of +6.3%, or ~$700 billion a year.

US money creation is expanding at a rapid pace.

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

JUST IN: @Solana votes to cut its own inflation curve in half.

The community passed a proposal to double $SOL's disinflation rate to 30%, squeaking past the 66.67% threshold in the final hour of voting.

18.9M $SOL ($1.47B) in issuance gets slashed over the next six years.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Jackson Hole speech word count

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

FED WARSH AT JACKSON HOLE (Summary):

On policy:

• He gave no timetable for a rate hike and said the speech should not be viewed as forward guidance or a formal reaction function

• Short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s main policy tool

• A “good majority” at the July meeting thought waiting was the wiser course

• Longer-term Fed task-force recommendations will have no bearing on current policy decisions

• The Fed needs market signals to remain “as unfiltered as possible”

On Macro:

• Economy “appears to have strengthened”
• Consumer spending remains healthy, labor markets stable
• Business investment is rising rapidly
• Financial conditions are hard to describe as restrictive
• Credit and loan markets show few signs of policy restraint

On inflation:

• Price stability is the Fed’s “predominant focus” right now

• Summer inflation data were better than expected, but underlying trends have not meaningfully improved

• Progress on inflation over the past two years has been modest

• Fed’s 2% PCE target is “firm and fixed”

• If the Fed cannot be confident inflation is moving toward 2% “clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said “we have work to do”

• Inflation expectations remain broadly stable, but “tend to look durable until they don’t” and must be watched closely

Also:
• Wage growth is moderate, but Warsh does not view wages as a reliable predictor of future inflation

• Market pricing still shows confidence that the Fed will ultimately deliver price stability

TLDR: Warsh did not explicitly call for a hike, but he made clear that current policy does not look particularly restrictive and that persistent inflation would require the Fed to act.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🔥HAWKISH FED: Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech put a September RATE HIKE back in play.

Hold odds plunged from 71% to 50%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike jumped from 30% to 49%.

Rate-cut odds remain near zero at just 1%.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🇺🇸 Kevin Warsh just delivered his first ever Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, and the tone was hawkish

1. Inflation data doesn't show meaningful improvement, 2% target remains firm and fixed

2. Fed has more work to do unless underlying inflation moves toward target with speed

3. Economy remains strong, with healthy spending, stable jobs, and low unemployment

4. Business investment growing at its fastest pace since 2021, nearly half tied to AI buildout

5. Questioned how long AI productivity gains will take to show up, prefers a "quieter" Fed

6. On monetarism, said money still matters and the Fed should watch money created by the central bank and the banking system

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Ukraine expects technical talks with Russia to begin “very soon."

[Solana @solana]

BREAKING: Charles Schwab to add Solana to Schwab Crypto

Direct SOL access for 39.9M brokerage accounts, sitting on $13.04T in client assets

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

THE MOST IMPORTANT FED EVENT OF THE YEAR IS HAPPENING TOMORROW

Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair.

Jackson Hole is the Fed's biggest annual policy gathering. Markets do not wait for the next FOMC meeting. They trade the tone of this one speech.

A patient tone tends to help stocks and crypto. A hawkish tone does the opposite: yields rise, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets get sold.

But does that actually hold up? Look at the last four years.

Powell went hawkish on 26 Aug 2022. The S&P 500 dropped 13% over the following 19 trading days.

He was slightly hawkish again on 25 Aug 2023. This time the index barely moved, down under 1% over the same stretch.

By 23 Aug 2024 his tone had turned dovish. The S&P 500 gained 1.48%.

Same dovish tone on 22 Aug 2025. The index gained 4.44%, the strongest reaction of the four.

Three dovish or mild years produced gains. One hawkish year produced a 13% drop. Most years the market holds or rises after this speech. 2022 was the one sharp exception, when Powell's hawkish tone triggered a selloff that lasted for weeks.

But This year is different.

Warsh has no track record at this podium yet, which makes tomorrow's tone harder to predict than any Jackson Hole speech in the last 4 years.

[Franklin Templeton Digital Assets @FTDA_US]

The era of “trading hours” is coming to an end.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Anthropic reportedly plans to publicly unveil its IPO prospectus after Labor Day, with a potential listing in late September or early October.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

Breaking: JPMorgan warns global food prices could nearly double by 2027 due to fertilizer shortages and a possible El Niño.

The bank sees food inflation rising from 2.8% now to 5% by early 2027.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $13 trillion Charles Schwab to add Solana, Avalanche, and Chainlink trading to Schwab Crypto accounts.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says "we've already achieved AGI."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, erases all losses and surges +5% after reporting record earnings results.

The stock has now added +$250 billion in market cap in after hours trading.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: Bitcoin is currently having its 3rd best August EVER, currently up 25% this month 🚀

[BSCN @BSCNews]

Crypto trade buttons are coming soon on X.

Users may be able to buy $XRP, $SOL, $ETH, $BTC, $ZEC, $XLM, etc, directly on @X.