Savant.Specter

Macro Hedge Fund Portfolio Manager
spending too much time researching & trading crypto
Tweets are not financial advice

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

Just released a post on crypto valuation methodologies. Hopefully, this will lead to a higher quality of discussion surrounding these concepts.

https://t.co/ikokw2ojaT

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@binji_x Gamify it!

Get a sleep tracker that provides a score

First step is having good measurements before trying to add any other layer

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@ethereumintern_ I'm sorry to have to be the one to tell you, but I think that's just called getting old

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

MEV, Tx Fees, etc are just derivations of the Demand for Security/Liveness

Focusing too hard on a single 1 is a waste:

1. You're competing with apps that controls the UX for end users
2. Derivations (revenue) capturable by apps have inf competition and trend towards $0

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@sassal0x it truly is wild that the narrative spun over the last 2 years emphasized that ETH not capturing MEV meant the token could never survive

But now is clear L2/operators are interested in building their ecosystem specifically where they are able to capture it themselves

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

Bitcoin is making changes which empower it to do more that Ethereum does

Meanwhile a valid critique of Ethereum is that it can't yet do what it needs to in order to empower its desired use cases

Therefore Bitcoin's changes will not significantly empower desirable use cases

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@abdelstark @ercwl You seem blinded because POS is "green". But being green is irrelevant (to me) why POS > POW

POWs only benefit is theoretical prevention of rich get richer problem

Otherwise POS is superior. Especially (to you) because algo designs X^2 security for X work whereas POW is 1 to 1

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@EliBenSasson Given this, Shogun season 1 might blow your mind

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@sassal0x Comparing to "Oil"

The oil ecosystem is much larger and $85T is just the value captured by its core commodity

Most value is extracted by transport companies

You're not wrong but such statements are meaningless without specific reasons why ETH captures value from that vertical

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@Evan_ss6 @AdrianoFeria I mean I wouldn't read too much into the price action while Bybit is buying $1.5B and North Korea hasn't started selling $1.5B yet

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@evabeylin @mdudas Solana leadership has stated multiple times a focus on having the most efficient price discovery platform

As a core goal, I do believe this to be distinct from any of Ethereum's goals and useful for a certain set of people

It just doesn't lead to the usecases I care most about

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

I wish people would stop calling it "insider trading" and just call it "fraud"

It is socially known enough that to be "insider trading" it must be a security. The memecoins scams can and should be understood as illegal regardless if the broken law is or is not "insider trading"

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

It's hard to stomach the hypocrisy in

"Eth is settlement layer"

after the years Eth used "Bitcoin is only settlement" as a part of its core philosophical high ground (2016 to 2019)

I see the nuance, but not sure I can ever fully support

(Crazy?) Small blockers got it right

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@gham1lt0n Markets/products have lifetimes

I still think that ICO's are one of the most interesting ways to grassroots fund a community desired project

But bankrupt enough (retail?) users- the ones interested in participating in that activity- and you, at a minimum, accelerate the end

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@jon_charb In reality, we want a 2 tier system. Established players/ecosystems should have a higher cost. Meanwhile barriers to entry for testing and newly spawned L2's should be low

But since we can only have 1 tier (for now?), agreed low is better

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@KamesGeraghty Well the ETF probably just outsources back to a crypto native staking/custody service - so blackrock might not have control directly - just more AUM for already too large crypto native players

ETH just trying its best to support solo stakers

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@sassal0x @ViktorBunin In theory it's fine, just more knowledge

In practice he's right: the community can only coalesce around a few changes at any one time, especially if one is confrontational

It's fair to argue the social coordination costs are high/not worthwhile right now

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

Solana plans for tech 10 years in the future to meet demand categories from last year

Ethereum plans for demand categories expected 10 years in the future with tech from last year

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

Implementation-wise (not considering the social requirements):

Ethereum can always trivially go to larger node requirements if the world determines it is the right path

Much more difficult, if not impossible, for Solana to go to smaller nodes

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@zmanian @Lomashuk Instead of denying it, I'd rather try to learn from it

[Savant.Specter @SavantSpecter]

@zmanian @Lomashuk I wasn't trying to imply that USD has won - actually the opposite

Tho I don't like BTC

There is some *quality* BTC has that is similar to USD. And that quality is both a strength and could possibly last for the rest of my lifetime. It's not nothing and not to be underestimated