oops… bitcoin etfs just posted their biggest outflow since january -$648m in one night, while 10y yields keep grinding higher—something most of ct is ignoring.
coincidence or warning? here is what data showing👇
to get clear context let me share some data first. average daily flow since etf launch in january 2024 is +$98m per day. yesterday was 6.6× that average in the wrong direction.
for context on how bad this actually was:
> 15 may: -$290.4m
> 13 may: -$630.4m
> 18 may: -$648.6m
three of the worst outflow days this cycle happened in the last week.
most important data ct is totally ignoring treasury yields. 10y yield closed at 4.61% on 18 may. up from 4.59% on 15 may. which is higher all month from ~4.38% in early may.
this is the macro mechanism that matters here.
the math on why you'd take profits on a btc etf right now isn't complicated. you don't need to be structurally bearish on btc to rotate out when risk-free rates are rising. it's pre planned… institutional catch up early always. retail doesn't until it shows up in price.
my honest read on this,
this is not a narrative reversal on bitcoin as an asset. cumulative etf inflows since launch are still +$57.7b. ibit alone sits at +$65.3b in cumulative inflows. so recent massive outflow is pretty common when yield offer lubricant opportunity.
75k low matter more now, if we get deviation here we’ll see a good pullback towards 80k. the outflow rotation will be there.
the question i have…
is this outflow yield-driven profit-taking or the beginning of a broader institutional de-risk? what’s your read, dip buying opportunity or more pain ahead? drop your thoughts below👇
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