The Scarcity Trade

Investing in the bottlenecks: power, data centers, land, oil, semis, and DRAM. The physical constraints behind the AI age. FAANG AI Engineer. $025560.KS

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

My largest position is $2316.TW, WUS Printed Circuit Co Ltd: an AI PCB maker trading at ~11x look-through P/E and only ~23% of its listed $002463.SZ stake NAV.

The stock is ~NT$168. Its listed $002463.SZ stake alone is worth ~NT$733/share gross.

That is a ~77% discount to listed stake NAV before giving any value to the Taiwan PCB business.

This is not a trapped holdco. They’ve already monetized part of the stake.

Why cheap?
Holdco discount. China exposure. PCB cyclicality. Low coverage. Monetization risk. No clean “AI” label.

But the setup is changing.

AI servers need more complex, high-layer PCBs. Capacity is tightening. Q1 net income was up ~141% YoY. $2316.TW hit/closed at limit-up 5 times in May alone.

This hits exactly what I look for:

Hidden NAV. Downside protection. Positive momentum. AI bottleneck exposure. Inflecting fundamentals. A monetization catalyst. Dirt-cheap Valuation.

The market sees a forgotten PCB holdco.

I see a discounted tollbooth in the AI supply chain, backed by a listed stake worth over 4x the current share price.

Just reaching listed stake NAV implies ~336% upside.

That is The Scarcity Trade.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Any in person groups where people talk stocks in NYC? Obviously I like small micro nano caps the more unloved illiquid obscure the name the better. Would love to connect with folks on names.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Just posted a convex leveraged bet to substack. Check it out!

[Worldwide Capital @Wwcap2]

$ARW printing >$20 of EPS this year... Trades at just over 11x

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

@Stortof @AmCoin82832 I think you are unable to buy on margin, Korea was on holiday yesterday. I think if you have cash you can buy tonight, but can wait till Jun 9 to buy without restriction (I believe this is the correct date but I am not a native Korean reader/writer/speaker/investor etc.)

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Cant wait to reload on Mirae Corp $025560.KS

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Bought a starter. Looking forward to full thesis.

[JC @j16425646]

$SPWR short squeeze seems to be underway. T.J. Rogers owns 52 million and 14.4 million shares are short. The upside is enormous. More to come.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Anyone have any thoughts on $2323.TW ?

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Interesting little find today, no position:

$2323.TW / CMC Magnetics

MC is NT$13.9B vs disclosed securities portfolio of NT$21B and book NAV of NT$18.8B.

That’s 0.65x securities value / 0.74x P/NAV, while the operating business is being valued near zero.

Owned securities: ($8299.TWO, $2408.TW,
$3260.TW, $2454.TW, $2345.TW, $3163.TWO, $3081.TWO, $3363.TWO, $4979.TWO, $6442.TW, $3105.TWO, $2330.TW, $2313.TW, $3211.TW, $2464.TW, $2363.TW)

Not a clean AI torque story, but asymmetric asset-backed optionality. You pay 34x earnings for the business + you get more than the equity value in AI-related securities:

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Extremely clear it was an overreaction to yesterday's data. $ABVX

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Took a starter on $ABVX, reaction seems overblown compared to how efficacious the drug seems to be.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Wow, and I expect orders to Mirae Corp at 5x annualized earnings to keep going up. $025560.KS (revenue is at double run rate of last year)

[Knockouttrader @knockouttrader]

SK Hynix to double Memory production capacity over five years and sees memory shortage at least last until 2030

$MU $000660.KS

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Took a starter on $ABVX, reaction seems overblown compared to how efficacious the drug seems to be.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

@AmCoin82832 I fear it may, I am going to try to buy as much as I can before. Probably the position with most conviction tbh.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

@j16425646 Very curious what you see here. Looking forward to your research.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

@AmCoin82832 It’s on trading restriction from KRX till June 5 or 9. That’s why price is going down it’s hard to buy it right now.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

$FCEL bouncing prior to earnings. The bull case here is more realizable than not based on the filings discovered.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Bull case for $FCEL is market stops valuing as distressed legacy fuel-cell comp and values like Bloom. Bloom’s full 2.8 GW is the comparable, if we apply Bloom’s MC/MW to FCEL’s full 350 MW capacity implies $206/share for FCEL. FCEL’s carbonate platform not 1:1 match for Bloom’s solid oxide tech so we can discount that number by however much we want to (even a 50% haircut implies 4-5x gain from here). Data center validation is all but given thanks to @ThematicTrader due diligence into County filings.

This is the Scarcity Trade for Data Center Power.

[τop τick crypτo 📁 🤖🧠 @toptickcrypto]

“The memory trade can’t keep going because the hyperscalers can’t spend more than 100% of cash flow”

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

@DaBao_ Nooo not degen enough haha

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

The non-fundamental price action over at Mirae Corp $025560.KS makes me want to buy even more.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

@LouisL33 We do not. That's why its so cheap.

[The Scarcity Trade @ScarcityTrade]

Bull case for $FCEL is market stops valuing as distressed legacy fuel-cell comp and values like Bloom. Bloom’s full 2.8 GW is the comparable, if we apply Bloom’s MC/MW to FCEL’s full 350 MW capacity implies $206/share for FCEL. FCEL’s carbonate platform not 1:1 match for Bloom’s solid oxide tech so we can discount that number by however much we want to (even a 50% haircut implies 4-5x gain from here). Data center validation is all but given thanks to @ThematicTrader due diligence into County filings.

This is the Scarcity Trade for Data Center Power.