W. Benedikt Schmal

Competition Economist

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

I've been awarded an #AntitrustWritingAward by @Concurrences and GWU Law School @gwlaw in the category "Academic Articles: Concerted Practices," and I could hardly be more proud. Thanks to all those who gave feedback on the paper along the way! @DICEHHU @haucap

[INSM @insm]

Konkurrenz auf der Schiene? Italo will nach Deutschland. Die Deutsche Bahn warnt vor Folgen im Nahverkehr. Der Monopolist fürchtet die Konkurrenz oder ist die Sache doch komplizierter? Dr. Bendikt Schmal schreibt dazu in unserem neuen Ökonomenblog.

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@derhagemann Wer nicht in der Lage ist, jährliche/vierteljährliche Ausschüttungen auf Monate zu verteilen, sollte vllt seine Kapitalmarktkompetenz reflektieren

[Legal Style Blog @legalstyleblog]

No one will take these governments seriously if they do not present their message seriously. This took me about five minutes last night.

[Stefan Kolev @OrdoliberalBG]

Einladung zur 7. „Zivilisierten Provokation“ des Ludwig-#Erhard-Forums

Gerald Braunberger (@FazitBlog, Herausgeber der @faznet) diskutiert mit Michael Burda (@HumboldtUni) über Geoökonomik & Grand Strategy für D.

Anmeldung: [email protected]

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@schnellenbachj Wissenschaftlicher Konsens in der eigenen school of thought ist nicht zu verachten - siehe die internen Dispute bei Ordos und Austrians ☝️

[Luke Heeney @heeney_luke]

Deaths per hot day have declined *massively* over the past century, and that's almost *entirely* due to air conditioning. As the world gets hotter, resisting air conditioning is absolutely insane and will kill many many people. This paper has the evidence.

[Neil Renic @NC_Renic]

Struggling to choose between money and pleasure? Start a PhD and reject both

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@schnellenbachj Mein Professor, der Angriff Wachstum ist nicht erfolgt

[Phil Magness @PhilWMagness]

Since some are wondering why the EU went along with this tariff "deal," let's spell it out.

The EU knows that Trump's entire tariff agenda is currently facing a strong legal challenge in the US court system. The EU also knows that Trump's term is over in 3.5 years and the effective part of his presidency where he doesn't face congressional opposition is about 1.5 years at most. Since none of his tariffs are codified into law, they will expire in one of three ways:

- The court strikes them down in a matter of weeks-to-months. Outcomes are never certain in court and they can always do weird and fickle things, but I'd put the odds of this happening as greater than 50%. The case genuinely is that clear-cut against him.

- Trump loses Congress in 1.5 years at the midterms. If this happens, the procedural block that Mike Johnson placed to obstruct votes to rescind the tariffs is removed. The Democrats will then allow these votes out of opposition to Trump and probably pick up a few anti-tariff Republicans along the way. That means the tariffs are overturned in some form or another ca. 2026.

- Trump narrowly retains his majority in 1.5 years, but is term limited in 2028. And since Trump's tariffs are just executive decrees and are not codified into law, any subsequent president can rescind them with a stroke of a pen. The only thing stopping that is to try to get a pro-tariff successor like Vance elected, but that will not last indefinitely nor is such a successor guaranteed to have a GOP congress. So the further out we get, the harder it is to keep the tariff decrees in place.

If you are in the EU's position, you have basically two options:

1) Retaliate hard, harming yourself in the process and spiraling into a full-fledged trade war.

2) Try to get minor concessions now, knowing that the tariffs are likely to go away in a matter of weeks at best or about 3.5 years at worst.

And if you realize that even 3.5 years of pain is less-bad than a self-destructive retaliatory trade war, you take option 2.

[Dr. Nils Heisterhagen @N_Heisterhagen]

Das mit Abstand größte Versagen liegt bei denen in Europa, die #TTIP verhindert haben als es möglich war

Wegen ein paar Chlorhühnchen und anderem Unsinn

Vielen Dank an die #Grünen, die #Linken und den linken Flügel der SPD.

Dieser Trade-Deal ist auch eure Niederlage

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@ganglmair @Lufthansa_DE @BostonLogan @united It's Frusthansa for a reason

[LSE Business Review @LSEforBusiness]

With increasing volatility in the world, antitrust in both the US and EU is being challenged to guarantee the survival of innovation.
@schmal_w @TU_Ilmenau

https://t.co/FlyWn1RNnY

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@_ToFeWe Been there, done that

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@LarsWienand Wieso nicht einfach SEPA Überweisung ohne App. Bei vielen Neobanken geht das jetzt schon in Echtzeit und ab Oktober müssen alle Banken in der Eurozone Echtzeitüberweisungen senden undempfangen können

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

Socialism is like polio, it comes back when people forget about the horrible damage it did last time.

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@sabinedoering @Lars_Feld @TimKriegerFR @BachmannRudi @OrdoliberalBG @haucap Richtig starkes Line-Up!

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@SchoeneggerPhil Onward and upward, as Jim Buchanan would say. Congrats"

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@olk_julian @haucap @handelsblatt @GrimmVeronika @WielandVolker Einfach das Profil auf der Institutswebsite aufzurufen, ist beim intensiven Durchforsten niemandem eingefallen?
https://t.co/qbpjmxX00o

[W. Benedikt Schmal @schmal_w]

@_ToFeWe Auf jeden Fall!