Scott's Scoreboard

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

Senate control is still a 50/50 tossup.

https://t.co/t0SjvHAjI0

[Napolitan News Service @NapolitanNews]

@EricLDaugh .@scottscoreboard calculates 3 scenarios.

Currently, the model accounting for GOP under-representation looks like this:

51 seats R,
46 seats D
3 tossups.

https://t.co/XNj3cfmnub

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

The KS Senate is now a tossup. That makes 5.

Here's how the Senate looks:

D's 49
R's 46 (-1)

https://t.co/t0SjvHAjI0

@ScottWRasmussen

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

@FrankLuntz .@ScottWRasmussen's mini scoreboard runs the numbers for 3 scenarios: the current general consensus, and systematic polling error for each side. Take the guesswork out of what will happen in the event of an error:

https://t.co/AqJMjWCl66

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

House baseline: 223 D, 201 R w/ 11 Tossups.

Senate baseline: 49 D, 47 R w/ 4 Tossups

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 13)
✅GOP has 50% chance of keeping Senate control (down one from yesterday)
✅Dems have 78% chance of winning House (unchanged)
https://t.co/8IG46Tlpj7

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (Oct 11)
✅R's have 51% chance of keeping Senate.
✅If Paxton wins Texas, R's have 70% chance of keeping Senate.
✅If Talarico wins Texas, D's have 70% chance of taking control.
https://t.co/Hhvth5YF1M

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

"There are 4 [Senate] tossups: TX, ME, IA and OH. Those 4 states, in a typical year, shouldn't even be close."

@ScottWRasmussen breaks down the latest Senate numbers.

https://t.co/d8KcWOtzz3

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

"The D's need to win just 1 more seat that's not Safe or Likely for them to take control."

@ScottWRasmussen talks House expectations, but then breaks down what a good night for Republicans would look like in the event of serious systemic polling error.

And...it's still tough.

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

This caused some shakeups today on the scoreboard.

New baseline:

Dems 223, Reps 201, with 11 tossups.

https://t.co/yUWszWNkZ4

@ScottWRasmussen @CookPolitical

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: 18 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including four GOP incumbents from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/4f5rWJjCFC

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

@ScottWRasmussen Don't forget about the governor's races:

26 D, 22 R, 2 Tossups

https://t.co/VsWUQbkEZS

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

Democrats have a 47% chance of a sweep. Republicans have a 23% chance.

30% chance each party takes 1 chamber.

https://t.co/t0SjvHARxy

@ScottWRasmussen

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 8)
✅Senate Control a Pure Tossup
✅D's have 74% chance to win House
✅Next Update: 2:00 p.m. Eastern
https://t.co/8IG46TlX8F

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

Chances of control:

House: Dems 74%, GOP 26%

Senate: Dems 50%, GOP 50%

Both: Dems 47%, Split: 30%, GOP 23%

https://t.co/t0SjvHARxy

@ScottWRasmussen

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 7)
✅House: 215 seats are rated Safe/Likely for the Dems (3 short of majority control). Another 8 are rated Lean Dem.
✅Democrats have 74% chance to win control of House.
✅Important to note: We have a much stricter definition of a Tossup than other sources. If a candidate is favored by 60% to 70% in our Scoreboard, we consider that a Leaner.
✅More traditional rating services like @CookPolitical and @LarrySabato are more conservative in their estimates. Historically, races they consider leaning win more than 90% of the time.
✅So, many races those forecasters consider a Tossup will be rated as leaning one way or the other in our system.
https://t.co/CxQBh6T0IK

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

Alaska has shifted towards the Democrats. That leaves 4 tossups in the Senate.

TX, ME, OH, IA

https://t.co/t0SjvHARxy

@ScottWRasmussen

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

Take a look at the top 5 most competitive districts:

3 are currently held by Republicans, 2 by Democrats.

https://t.co/i7UmHwWzSV

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 5) @scottscoreboard
✅House: Safe/Likely/Lean Dem 215
✅ Safe/Likely/Lean GOP 206
✅Tossup 14
✅GOP +1 from yesterday
✅D's need to win 3 of 14 Tossups for Control
https://t.co/W0G9rvOG6w

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

How is Scott's Scoreboard different from other forecasters? Part of it is incorporating prediction markets like @Kalshi.

"In 2024...the prediction markets showed that Donald Trump was likely to win the 7 swing states, but the forecasters continued to call them a tossup."

@ScottWRasmussen @KalshiPolitics

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

A great rundown of a difference between our rating system and other well-known alternatives.

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 3)
✅House: Safe/Likely/Lean Dem 215
✅Safe/Likely/Lean GOP 205
✅Tossup 15
✅In our ratings, races favoring a candidate 60% - 70% are considered as leaning towards that candidate. This is a much tighter band than traditional forecasters such as @CookPolitical and @LarrySabato. Historically, races they rate as lean win about 94% of the time.
✅This means we will have fewer tossups.

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

There are 18 tossups for the House, and Dems need to win 4 for control:

1) MI-10
2) OH-09
3) MI-07
4) TX-15
5) NY-17
6) NC-11
7) FL-14
8) PA-08
9) WI-03
10) FL-25
11) OH-07
12) PA-10
13) AZ-06
14) NC-01
15) CO-08
16) IA-02
17) FL-22
18) IA-03

https://t.co/muaxVfCBGa

@ScottWRasmussen

[Napolitan News Service @NapolitanNews]

8 minutes w/ @ScottWRasmussen covers all you need to know for the midterms:

1) Who voters trust on the top issues

2) The US and the UN: Forces for Good or Evil, according to voters

3) Scott's Scoreboard: Scott did the math. Here's what Tilt, Lean, Likely and Safe mean for top forecasters and prediction markets.

@InsideElections @CookPolitical @LarrySabato @KalshiPolitics @scottscoreboard

[Scott's Scoreboard @scottscoreboard]

Senate now 48-47. Michigan moved toward the D's, leaving 5 tossups.

https://t.co/d8KcWOtzz3

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 2)
✅Senate: Dem 48 GOP 47 Tossup 5 (TX, ME, OH, IA, AK).
✅House: Dem 214 GOP 203 Tossup 18
✅To take control, D's need to win 4 of 18 Tossups.
https://t.co/8IG46Tlpj7

[Scott Rasmussen @ScottWRasmussen]

🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 2)
✅Senate: Dem 48 GOP 47 Tossup 5 (TX, ME, OH, IA, AK).
✅House: Dem 214 GOP 203 Tossup 18
✅To take control, D's need to win 4 of 18 Tossups.
https://t.co/8IG46Tlpj7