Sebastian Farnsworth

Scholar. Soldier. Sportsman. Sociologist. Scotch Aficionado. Historian. Political Scientist and International Affairs Specialist.

I drink and know things.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@payer_single @admcrlsn This is the right point.

It doesn't bother me that Patriot Polling, or Red Eagle are clear supporters of Trump. The problem is their motives & mandate. They are hired to provide junk polling & they use poor sampling & modeling to deliver it.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@camrynchris @dsfence64 @admcrlsn I would disagree they are backed by no one.

The point is they have been backed by the GOP for the exclusive purpose of delivering a pre-determined result. The reason why small, new firms are being used because reputable firms w/ long histories are unwilling to be ringers.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@AJ_IR_MD @admcrlsn And if one can determine the cause of this consistent bias, one can also use the cross-tabs to extrapolate what the likely outcome will be.

Harris winning PA by 2-3% seems quite reasonable.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@jjrs @spin4srv @admcrlsn Patriot Polling has been off between 6-9 points on average so...

Harris wins by 2.5%, which is a safe bet anyway.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@Brixwoof @blockedfreq It is because they don't want to learn. They want their confirmation bias. They're already crowing over it.

Also it doesn't matter to them that some of these polling firms all but admit they are paid to provide junk polls. They're not credible firms to be taken seriously.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@KvotheTheArcane This is the same video of clearing trenches from 2023 that led many to believe WarGonzo got killed.

The dude in the blue hoodie and red beard greatly resembled him.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@KenFlorida3 @AndrewPerpetua What reputable general ever fights a battle on even terms? The whole point is to never fight an equal terms.

Also, yeah, using material is the point. The US has done this since WWII. Its an odd point for folks to make.

It isn't elegant but its winning wars since 1864.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@AndrewPerpetua We're talking about during the Cold War decades ago when the relics Russia is fielding today were actually competitive (1980s at the latest).

But I am not getting your full meaning. As you saying that NATO shouldn't have been preparing for, and studying, their primary enemy?

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@AndrewPerpetua There were Soviet experts, not Russian. Entire Soviet Study programs were shelved after the mid-1990s.

Perhaps too few studied Russia since then.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@TallbarFIN That guy is undoubtedly thinking of Sweden.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@IAPonomarenko Krokodil is a helluva drug.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@Wertwhile To answer my own question: Open Labs is a boutique polling firm of very dubious value used by some at the DNC for certain polling & messaging testing.

They are considered a "tame" firm, & their polls are often of poor quality. One should not take much from this at all.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@Wertwhile I get they may do internal stuff for the DNC etc. But... such a firm should still have a footprint somewhere and at least a few polls public.

A lot of people are using a "leak" of a poll as proof w/o doing any due diligence on the polling firm.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@Wertwhile How about this question: Has anyone confirmed Open Labs as an actual firm, or one with any sort of track-record? There appears to be not a single poll from them anywhere online. Not on 538, RCP. Just an extract from 2022 for the DCCC. No website, no LinkedIn. No Twitter account.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@OregonMapGuy Go ahead & explain to the folks who Open Labs are.

What is their track-record? How often do they poll? Do a quick search for their polls & online presence. So far, there is extract of a poll from 2022 and that is it. Nadda on 538 or RCP. People may be embarrassed pretty soon.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@RealDanSadan Have you even bothered to research who OpenLabs is (or isn't)?

Leaked 'info' from a dubious polling firm with no track-record is a terribly poor foundation upon which to build an argument.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@admcrlsn The average voter didn't watch the debate & doesn't care.

It is only the Dem Party Hacks/Political Junkies/Pundits still talking about this crap, & actually thinks it matters to regular people. They're in a confirmation bias feedback loop & bed-wetting as Dems ALWAYS do.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@admcrlsn One might be more inclined to listen to Jon if every episode of PSA wasn't a rendition of "The polls are garbage, sampling methodology is broken, only exit polls matter, in every election since Dobbs America has emphatically rejected MAGA, etc."

But all of a sudden "THE POLLS!"

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@TheFl0orIsLaVa Ruble Farmer.

[Sebastian Farnsworth @SeaBasFarnswrth]

@jonfavs So every episode of PSA we are told "The polls are crap, sampling methodology is broken, etc., etc."

All of a sudden polling is fixed in five days? This is a sophisticated voter/media/party hack feedback loop.