Sea Change Investing Labs

Building tools for traders of the next era.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

@QuantSymplectic I am a theoretical physics phd, two words on how do you derive the streamlines?

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

https://t.co/ITBcfq7e1s

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

REVERSE SPLITS: usually bearish flow. The mean-reversion angle: let the headline flush, then trade the reflex—either scalp the bounce to VWAP or, more often, short the first rip back toward equilibrium. Use z-score/ATR bands and a time stop. Respect borrow and liquidity.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Hot hand ≠ vacation. When you’re winning, raise standards and effort—not risk. Keep it A+ only and stay process-first. Don’t coast—compound.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Index deletion ≠ death. Forced sellers dump into the effective date; when that flow is done, prices often mean-revert. Look for capitulation (volume spike, late-day flush), then fade the panic—not advice, just flows. Who tracks rebalance dates?

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Meet TICK—the market’s heartbeat. It’s NYSE upticks − downticks every second. +300 = buyers swarming; −300 = sellers in control. Typical range ≈ ±400; panic can hit ±1000. When TICK stays one-sided ~30 min, sentiment is stretched—prime time to hunt intraday reversals/fades.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

If you don’t process your money story, it will trade you.

Surface childhood scripts, reflexes to big wins/losses, and size changes.

Name → Normalise → Navigate. Bookmark this to review monthly.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Filters: curve must be firmly in contango, carry above a threshold, liquidity decent, risk limits tight.

Kill switch: flip to backwardation or spread blowout = exit.

What carry/term-structure filters do you use?

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

When the curve is in contango, you can harvest roll yield:

Short a farther-dated future → buy it back later when it rolls to front.

That’s the core mechanic that powered XIV (until its inevitable demise).

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Markets are outcome-scored, but daily outcome-obsession tanks execution. Set 1–2 process goals per session (prep depth, risk discipline, playbook update). Let PnL be a *byproduct*.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

EARNINGS STRATEGY: big gap on vibes, not numbers. No guide raise, low-quality beat. Let the initial squeeze burn out, then fade back toward value. Use a volume/level trigger and a time stop. What’s your post-earnings checklist?

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

If you wanna learn more about algotrading: start with the basics - cannot go wrong here

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

=> If ρ < 1, σ shrinks roughly with √n; the expected return adds linearly with n.

=> Plugging the reduced σ into the Kelly formula (or any mean-variance objective) gives a larger optimal aggregate position size than you’d dare with a single market.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

"Diversification is the practice of spreading your investments around so that your exposure to any one type of asset is limited."

replace ASSET by STRATEGY - it's much more powerful and general. Let me explain:

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Why it works: Portfolio variance of n equally-weighted, identical-volatility systems with average pairwise correlation ρ is

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Latest alt-season didn't materialise. Is this only a delay or is it cancelled?

Do the mainstream coins still have something to say before we continue with alts? Short term options positioning in crypto-related tradfi instruments says so, while the m2 liquidity is on a downtrend.

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

How to reconcile ADP and BLS payrolls?

I actually don’t see the gap as too big this month.

ADP measures private sector jobs. It correctly flags the sharp slowdown in private sector jobs this month. Particularly the slowdown in private education and health.

This month’s nfp is driven by about 70k net increase in state and local jobs net of federal jobs, which were not counted in adp.

We also know BLS nonfarm payrolls have a birth death model problem still this year, overstating monthly growth by at least 80k-100k per month.

Adp also doesn’t consider weather factors.

So:

-33k (adp) + 80k-100k (birth death overstatement) + 70k (net govt jobs) = 123k-143k nfp headline.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Quote from the book "The Fall and Rise of American Finance: from J. P. Morgan to BlackRock," where the authors provide an excellent account of the history of American finance from the late 19th century to today.

[Sea Change Investing Labs @SeaChangeLabs]

Larry Fink published an interesting shareholders letter, clearly outlining where does he plan to take the company further.

Can we expect the amazing success they had with products based on the public markets to be repeated with their private equity projects?