Seahawk Nerd

Professional data analyst bringing mathematical thinking to all things Seattle Seahawks and the NFL.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

https://t.co/LzBgbhcJYq

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

The Mike Macdonald effect

[Carl Jones @Jones11_]

Defense is volatile year to year. Look at the Texans.

But that’s what makes the Seahawks so special. Lost several key pieces off that SB team and it hasn’t mattered. One of my favorite teams to watch.

[Sean Pendergast @SeanTPendergast]

This is painful, as a #Texans fan, watching this Seahawks defense excel. Last season, the Texans and Seahawks were neck and neck for best defense in the sport. This season, they are….. not.

[Kirsten Tanis @Kirsten_Tanis1]

Seahawks have only lost 6 games since beginning of 2025. 21-6 record, including playoffs.

Combined margin of loss in 6 losses?
17 points 🤯

2025
🔸 W1: Lost 17-13 to SF
🔸 W5: Lost 38-35 to TB
🔸 W11: Lost 21-19 to LAR

2026
🔸 W3: Lost 33-31 to WSH
🔸 W5: Lost 32-29 to SF
🔸 W6: Lost 17-14 to DEN in OT

Margin of loss tells you a lot about a team.

➡️ SEA is incredibly consistent in their high level of play. Maximum they have lost by is 4 points. Average is under a FG.

Even in their very rare “off-weeks” with more mistakes & sometimes many (INTs, etc), they come remarkably close to fully being able to absorb & overcome them.

They are a ridiculously tough out.

Opponents must bring their A+ game, starting strong, playing cleaner & creating and/or capitalizing on every mistake to beat them.

➡️ 5 out of SEA’s 6 losses came when the opposing team was both leading at the half & won the turnover battle.

2nd halves were either reciprocal scoring drives with opponents maintaining a small lead or see-sawing heavyweight bouts with the lead going back & forth down to the wire.

In only 1 loss did SEA both lead at halftime (by 3 points) & have same number of turnovers as their opponent (2). That was W1 2025 vs SF

🚨 Teams down by more than a FG at halftime have not beaten SEA in the last two seasons.

Second half down by a TD+ comebacks don’t exist in their world.

⚠️ Teams who lose the turnover battle haven’t beaten them either.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

@cmikesspinmove Doesn't get locked onto a #1 receiver... matchup hunter

[Nick Lee @NickLee51]

Remember the Sean McVay Screaming Into His Playsheet image of last year? Seahawks D did that to one of the best offensive minds in football.

Today? JSN had one of the top defensive minds Steve Spagnuolo in an absolute TORTURE CHAMBER.

[Gregory 🇵🇸 @GeeK253]

Wanna note again that the Seahawks had one of the most dominant defensive performances in recent memory and zero helmet to helmet hits. You can be a fast and physical defense and use proper technique. It’s almost as if the niners are dirty or poorly coached.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

Seahawks odds to win the division, given a win in every non-49ers/Rams game remaining.

Sweep the remaining divisional games and their odds are 61%, pending the non-divisional games.

Highlights the importance of those final 3 NFC West matchups.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

Look at the smile on Leonard's face. That man loves his coach and his team.

[Seattle Seahawks @Seahawks]

THAT'S SEAHAWK FOOTBALL ‼️

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

Good news is that Josh Jones is a viable backup. Not having Cross will suck, but it's not going to doom them. No need to rush Cross back but gosh I sure hope he's not limited in physical ability upon returning to the lineup.

[Ian Rapoport @RapSheet]

#Seahawks OT Charles Cross, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday, has a high-ankle sprain and will miss time, the MRI revealed.

The hope is he’s back in 1-2 weeks, but it depends on how rehab goes.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

- That was a season-saving and season-defining win. If Seattle can get at least one of Charbonnet/Price back for the Bears game, things are looking up. Not really afraid of LV/DAL/NYG/PHI/CAR. Divisional games will decide the season. Running the table is not, er, off the table...

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

General thoughts the morning after:

- Emmanwori started to look like himself again off his 3rd game with a 90%+ snap share. Takes this defense from elite to historic.

- All 3 RBs ran well. Still think Holani is the most elusive in space. Wilson more of a "wear you down" guy.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

- Seahawks fans have been hot and cold on Josh Jobe but can we take a moment to appreciate his highlight reel? Got the game-winning pick in Week 1 and was lock down in this game. What a strong tackle.

- I love Ty Okada's reaction time. Give him an inch and he'll take a mile.

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

Seahawks back in the top 5 in DVOA after the big SNF win:

[Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore]

This was a very busy Sunday for @FTNFantasy DVOA. Seven teams moved 5+ spots in overall DVOA

TB 16th to 8th (+8)
BAL 8th to 16th (-8)
ATL 24th to 18th (+6)
CAR 7th to 13th (-6)
SEA 10th to 5th (+5)
KC 2nd to 7th (-5)
HOU 9th to 14th (-5)

Below is changes in O and D rank

[Seahawk Nerd @SeahawkNerd]

Is Anthony Bradford the secret sauce to the Seahawks offensive line?

[Nick Lee @NickLee51]

Since the beginning of 2025, the Seahawks are

22-3 with Anthony Bradford in the lineup

2-3 without him.