Sebastian Krog

Small/Micro-cap Investor. Mostly value with a catalyst or special sits.

Full write ups on my blog:

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Yes, it's a UK name (LSE, liquidity OK), but this setup checks all the boxes:
✅Potential upcoming segment sell to unlock re-rating
✅Crown jewel business is probably worth the entire market cap
✅Top-line growth fueled by strong industry tailwinds

Read more here:
https://t.co/ZDXt2uT9sP

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@CPDDOUGH @joinyellowbrick I wish it was mine already back then. Congrats man!

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@evfcfaddict Thanks Andy. You are the guy who invites me the most 😆 Seriously, thank you for the great meet-ups.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@joinyellowbrick Thanks for the profile! Reading it really makes me look like a commodity guy if 3/5 of my best pitches were oil-related…

[Yellowbrick Investing @joinyellowbrick]

Sebastian @SebKrog is up 67% YTD and has a 43% CAGR since 2023.

He gave me access to his paid research to see what I could find.

Here are some of his best pitches (and his largest current holding):

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@FaustFund Famous last words lol

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Four ways to make money on a "theme"

- Buy the leader and play "passive flows"
- Buy highest "rate of change" company
- Buy the levered company
- Buy the "special sit" where coorperate action pot. unlocks the company as a pure-play on the theme.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@FaustFund Ask Claude ;) what’s the thesis for uk homebuilder?

[Yellowbrick Investing @joinyellowbrick]

Tidewater Midstream $TWM.TO

Stock Price: CAD 24.15
Market Cap: CAD 543mm
Enterprise Value: CAD 1.12bb
EV/EBITDA (NTM): 5.3x
Given upside: 70%+

The next leg is better realized pricing: refinery contracts signed below market in an oversupplied diesel market are coming up for renewal just as supply tightens and regional construction lifts demand, supporting stronger pricing and crack spreads beyond 2026. I estimate mid-cycle EBITDA at roughly C$220M, putting shares at around 6x EV/EBITDA, and expect above-cycle earnings to persist across both conventional and renewable diesel. Roughly C$400M of the EV is debt, and paying that down could deliver more than 70% equity upside at an unchanged multiple. On top of that, I believe we will see above-cycle earnings for longer (on both sides of the business). The potential SAF project adds substantial optionality (it could ultimately be worth the entire market cap) with an investment decision targeted for Q4 2026. The key risk is that fuel margins weaken before sustained cash generation delivers the deleveraging.

Recently pitched by @SebKrog. Make sure to give him a follow

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@shirefindsvalue @karpathy Could question, I don’t know ChatGPT well but codex should do it

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

I Implemented @karpathy's LLM knowledge base for stock research back in April. Six months later, I still use it every day. Here is how I have implemented it for stocks, and why it's a great fit:

https://t.co/C8fzKRApwI

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@x_journeyman @karpathy I guess any will do it. At the end it’s just a folder you work with

[Kevin @atomicalcapital]

Do this. It's a no-brainer.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Yes, it's a UK name (LSE, liquidity OK), but this setup checks all the boxes:
✅Potential upcoming segment sell to unlock re-rating
✅Crown jewel business is probably worth the entire market cap
✅Top-line growth fueled by strong industry tailwinds

Read more here:
https://t.co/ZDXt2uT9sP

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@GlobalStockPick Not yet. My dad is driving, I am just the co-pilot

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Not a bad Thursday afternoon

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

With potential turbulent times ahead, remember that investing and trading is a psychological game.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@TurboToni4 Market thermometer

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Any specific reason $HNRG is getting even more obliterated than its peers?

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@taobanker Whats going on with HNRG?