Sebastian Krog

I write about undiscovered and cheap Small/Micro-cap stocks on my Blog.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

I have removed the paywall from my write-up of Frontera Energy $FEC.TO from January this year. Shares are up over 100% since then, and still cheap. Read it for free now, here: https://t.co/KpJDjlAatP

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@DrSichuan @EMdiggers Thanks!

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@gezzogero @SlydawgTzh well... there is more than one that comes to mind but yes

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

A business with multiple segments that have vastly different margin profils + an ongoing strategic review, an upcoming spin-off or a potential divesture is a pretty good investment framework.
Bonus points if one segment got industry tailwinds and an investor got a board seat.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@gezzogero @SlydawgTzh You‘ll find 1-2 of these each year, I‘d say. Many other way to make money as well obv.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

The caveat/risk as of right now: Cinemark accounts for half of their screen count and most likely almost all of their growth in the last two quarters. So customer concentration risk applies here. That‘s also why securing another deal with a big chain would be huge for them.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

A lot has been said here about $DBO.TO‘s Quarter.
My favorite number from the Q is $7.7M in theatre system sales vs. $10M for entire 2025.

It has been an outstanding year and it great to see a Microcaps execute with cost discipline and a pristine balance sheet.

Shares are trading now at 12.5x EV/EBITDA on FY26 numbers. Big question is if they are able to take advantage of the fact that they are in only 2% of all screens in North America. If they can (which would mean securing a deal with AMC or Regal) than the runway here is exceptional.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

One of the catalysts here just became very, very likely to happen with right-wing candidate de la Espriella winning surprisingly the first round.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Everyone is talking about oil.

Nobody is looking at Colombia.

2.6-3.2x EBITDA. Below $32k per flowing barrel.

A presidential election in May that could reprice the entire sector.

PS: If you're wondering why the thumbnail is a layered cake, read the article.

Link in comment

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@taobanker What’s the pitch?

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Someone pitched me a french stock (which was a good pitch). Anyway, I took it as sign to look into french stocks… some interesting names that are adjacent to secular tailwinds (AI, electrification). It’s tough to buy the obvious one cause it’s partly a fomo trade then.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@MicroCapClub You should re-write that article every 10 years to adjust for inflation...

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

For example $ALKAL.PA which is up 1400% last 6m lol

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@Tangible_Bruce 100%! Super unproductive to have an opinion on stuff you don’t own

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

I started investing in 2021, and since then, value investors have been losing their minds every year about how expensive the market is. Yet, with the exception of 2022, it has gone higher each year.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Looking forward to chat about standout earnings from May with @majgeoinvesting

[EPSMonitor @EPSMonitor]

🔴 LIVE THIS THURSDAY (May 28)
- 10 small-cap picks in one session, 5 from @majgeoinvesting, 5 from @SebKrog

- Live on Substack. Open to everyone. Tickers named on stream.

🕐 Thursday, 12:30 PM ET
📍 Substack Live

Set a reminder 👇

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@matschmitt2009 Wow, dass ich das noch erleben darf!

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

The paradox of idea generation is that I have found my best ideas when I was not actively looking for them. Yet, I would not have found them if I hadn't spent hours looking actively for ideas.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

Colombian stocks are up, as the market is anticipating that right wing candidate de la Espriella will win the elections. First round is on Sunday.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

How it feels when you go through hundreds of stocks and finally find something…

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

@david_katunaric $CMT also interesting name tied to that industry

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

I used to to this when I started looking at different stocks back in 2022/23. iIf you separate „has ran up“ and „is expensive“, quite the opposite is true and a winning stock, more often than not, keeps winning.

[Sebastian Krog @SebKrog]

The worst reason not to look further into a stock is „because it has ran up so much“