Sebas Haarsma

Hi

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@EthanLevins2 Except they said they have no idea when fuel will be available again

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@RickSanchezTV Rookie numbers, Kim Jong Un is at 117%. That peasant Putin can't even match that.

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@HaraldDoornbos Waarom?

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@fransweisglas Nee want de jeugd is er zo goed uitgekomen? Heeft u de parlementaire enquête wel gevolgd? Want dit waar ze het ongeveer unaniem over eens zijn, de scholen sluiten en de jeugd zo laten stikken mag nooit meer gebeuren.

[Eddy Terstall @eddy_terstall]

Gemeente Amsterdam al gereageerd?

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@fransweisglas Mwah er word met grote regelmaat geklaagd over het activisme en preken van ideologie bij de geesteswetenschappen. En zolang je demagogen als Lucassen, Wekker en Bouras hebt zal je dat ook houden. Hoewel Keijzer zeker een populist is, heeft ze hier juist een punt

[Pieter Omtzigt @PieterOmtzigt]

Onze opinie over het "Dutch protocol" voor jongeren met genderdysforie

Nederland liep voorop met medisch ingrijpen bij genderdysfore minderjarigen. Diverse landen worden daar nu veel voorzichtiger mee. Hoog tijd om dat ook te doen,

samen met @ArmandGirbes, Dorine Sellenraad, @EdelGeertje, Ruben Buijs,
@mariekehoogwout, Hacsi Horváth, Maureen Horváth, @HKouwenberg78, @DrMariekedOuden, @RoeliendenOuden, @demc29demc, @NickiVerweij

https://t.co/NHA3vfkLWx

[Malcontent News @MalcontentmentT]

Russia will not run out of fuel. If you're waiting for that to happen, good luck.

Refinery output is not zero, it continues, and regions maintain strategic reserves.

Demand is outstripping supply. Some of that is panic buying. Some of that is that refinery output can match demand. Some of that is shortages of trucks, drivers, and railroad tanker cars. The situation is clearly getting worse at an accelerating rate.

What is happening is that the Russian leadership will have to make increasingly difficult decisions about who gets fuel and who doesn't.

Obviously, the government overlords, the security apparatus, and the military are the top priorities.

The next tier is emergency services, logistics, and farmers.

The third tier is everything else, including public services, as we're seeing.

There are three problems that will make the situation progressively worse. The first is that as prices rise, inflation increases, and some businesses, battered financially since the COVID pandemic, won't survive.

The second one is if the average Russian can't get to their jobs because they can't fill up their cars and/or public transit is restricted or not running, industrial output declines, and tourism collapses. One creates scarcity, the other creates unemployment.

The third one is if the supply issues start to impact logistics. The remaining fuel supply will have to be increasingly dedicated to fuel transport. How ironic.

As the fuel supply continues to drop, prices will continue to increase. The Kremlin can spend more on its fuel price mechanism or send the anti-monopoly flying monkeys to the independent filling-station chains. The first option requires the money printers to go bbbbrrrrrttttt, the second option makes the fuel shortages worse. Independents will simply close rather than operating at a loss to stay out of prison.

Russia will never run out of petrol or diesel, but it can be slowly choked out as the supply tightens.

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@MalcontentmentT But setting conditions for what? Amphibious landing would be suicide?

[Bas Paternotte @baspaternotte]

"Ik ben echt geen racist, maar" en dan een tirade over 'koelies'. Af en toe gaat het masker bij die The Rights Forum-types af en dan zie je hun ware tronie.

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@Isa_Yusibov Failling upwards?

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@Ralphlex @KurtVanBraband @DickJanssen7 Yep, je hebt dat inderdaad laten vallen. Oekraine word nu lid van de Navo, Finland & Zweden waren neutraal maar nu ook lid. Het heeft alleen maar een miljoen Ruzzische doden gekost, hun gehele economie en toekomst, maar ze hebben dan tenminste ook geen enkel doel bereikt.

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@edkloosterhuis 😂😂😂 Over een jaar misschien. En tanks kan Ruzland daar niet meer gebruiken, die worden gesloopt voor ze uberhaupt onderweg zijn. Manschappen zelfde verhaal, maar daarvan hebben ze er genoeg. Miljoen doden meer of minder kijkt Putler niet van op

[Heidi Bachram @HeidiBachram]

The remaining Flotilla members held for a month by Libyan militias have been released. They were held at black sites cut off from contact. This militia is notorious for torture, forced confessions, executions and hostage taking. Yet no 24 hour coverage or enquiries. We know why.

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@piethoutman @bpschut Nee, dat valt onder etnische zuivering. Als genocide het doel was, dan waren er nu geen palestijnen meer in de gaza strook. Dan was de verhouding gedode terroristen vs gedode burgers niet in de buurt van 1:2, maar in de buurt van 1:20

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@piethoutman @bpschut Nee, want de Armeense bevolking in Turkije of in die gebieden is nog altijd niet op het zelfde niveau als van voor de genocide. De Tutsi bevolking in Rwanda is nog altijd kleiner dan voor de genocide in de jaren 90. De Palestijnse bevolking is gegroeid tijdens de "genocide"

[Malcontent News @MalcontentmentT]

For the first time since August 2022, Russia needs a ceasefire more than Ukraine.

The drone attacks will not fade out like they did in 2025. Russia is now in a race to solve the drone problem before this becomes a cruise and ballistic missile problem. I don't see Moscow winning this race.

The orher difference is Washington threw away its soft power to pressure Ukraine into goodwill gestures for dead end peace talks and the stability of global energy markets. Ukraine doesn't need to ask permission for long range strikes.

If you're waiting for Ukraine mid and long range drone attacks to stop or fade away, you're going to be waiting a long time.

I honestly thought we would see some signs of adaptation by Russian air defense and EW by now, but the problems are more systemic. Mobile fire teams escorting convoys aren't enough, and we're starting to see videos of fire teams abandoning their vehicles and running. Because they're untrained and have no professional NCO corps to enstill confidence.

We are also very surprised on how quickly fuel supply issues are spreading in Russia. We didn't expect this. Yes, we saw the Chinese fuel trucks, but that's a metaphorical drop in the bucket when you're measuring lost production in the hundreds of thousands of metric tonnes per day.

There was another estimate by Reuters that put Russian refinery capacity at 65%, slightly better than Bloomberg's 60%. If refinery capacity is below 85%, Russia can't meet domestic needs. The question is, is it really that bad? We estimate refinery capacity lost is 24%, not 35% to 40%.

We are going to learn a lot by mid July.

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@mog_russEN ECONOMIC STABILITY 😂😂😂 His own cabinet was telling him that they need to cut military spending because they are bankrupt 😂😂 And the "we will advance", indeed, towards the 1991 borders because they have been losing ground since february

[Sebas Haarsma @SebasHaarsma]

@piethoutman @bpschut Het is dan wel de meest unieke genocide in de geschiedenis van de wereld, de eerste genocide ooit waarbij de bevolking groeit tijdens een genocide. Je zou zeggen dat de Joden als ervaringsdeskundigen er dan ook wel wat beter in zouden zijn. Wat een amateurs zeg.