TraderSebi

My Family, Friends and the Cryptoverse - Burn for everything that enhances my horizon | Trade Alts | Invest in #BTC and Alts | Learn to improve it from OG’s

[XY @xydotdot]

Cockroach Assets.

The future path is uncertain, but the market already sits in a zone where disciplined buyers should begin acting.

This is bear buying territory, and the framework for operating here is fundamentally different from the framework you use in a bull.

In a bull, selection quality defines returns.

Dispersion widens, outliers dominate performance, and you need to identify the assets that outperform everything else. The entire exercise revolves around finding winners.

A bear inverts the problem.

Prices compress across the board, correlations rise, and the baseline probability of profit increases. In this environment, most assets will recover when conditions improve.

Roughly 70% of what you buy will eventually make money purely through cycle rotation. This means the key variable becomes the set of positions you filter out.

Your performance improves through exclusion.

The limiting factor becomes the 30% that do not recover, either because they rug, decay, or lose relevance. These are the positions that create permanent loss, and permanent loss has a larger impact on cycle returns than any marginal gain from picking an outperformer.

This leads to a simple operational rule: bear accumulation is a filtering exercise, not a discovery exercise. The objective is to remove fragility. Precision is unnecessary. Survival probability is the metric.

This also clarifies why revisiting high-flyers from the previous bull is a common error.

Their prior returns do not increase their survival odds.

Many belong to the 30% bucket. Meanwhile, assets with continuity, liquidity, usage, and legit teams tend to fall in the 70% bucket even if they look unexciting at current prices.

(i.e. A coin like FARTCOIN may look extremely cheap, yet its probability of landing in the 30% failure bucket is high. A coin like HYPE, supported by fundamentals and continuity, has stronger odds of ending up in the 70% that survive.)

If you have lasted long enough to be buying here, you already understand survival. You became a cockroach through repetition, damage, and persistence.

Apply the same criteria to your allocations.

Look for cockroach assets.

Look for the tokens that persist across conditions, maintain liquidity, keep active teams, and demonstrate resilience.

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

«Teachers who make physics boring are criminals»

— Walter Lewin

[Amado Carrillo Fuentes MZ @Amado_Fuentes27]

https://t.co/1wiJ55EQn8

@SwarmMarkets keeps on building. I recall how it began in 2023, with things being introduced slowly yet efficiently. IMO, they are becoming a serious player, especially with the partnership with @HederaFndn

DEFI has not yet had a chance to shine, but soon we will see more traction. This project is still at only around 7.3 MC.... just saying.

[Rickysfundamentals @rickytheirish]

There is another aster built by a dev who won binance hackathon.
https://t.co/WBhddfFbe4
He made:
https://t.co/atmmNcxpYY
He then made aster labs
https://t.co/rsqskiiGrY
Is he a shadow dev of aster perp dex?

They are also using a new oracle backed by franklin templeton and yzi (yzi labs being main supposed backer of aster perps dex and shadow binance vc)
https://t.co/aMEYloKBdD
{Franklin templeton also are involved with stbl and announced a 100 million dollar partnership which was created by usdt founder and is supposedly stablecoins version 2.0.
Stbl was launched on bnb}

There may be much more coming or attaching to aster than just the perps dex and token 🤔

[TraderSebi @SebiTrader]

@xxxxTheKing Positive

[DeFi^2 @DefiSquared]

So the SEC update to accelerate the timeline of ETF approvals creates one of the wildest narrative overlaps I've seen in a long time on AVAX specifically. Like nearly black-swan level convergence of ETF approval + close to $1 billion DAT bid coming at almost the same time.

The latest expected numbers I'm hearing right now are $800mm in up to 80% cash bid from the Dragonfly AVAX DAT, and an additional $300mm in over 50% cash bid from the Hivemind DAT (which literally closes tomorrow). Contrary to initial reports, a majority of this is reported to be open market bids, with only a portion purchased from the foundation (which may still be used to later buy spot the same way Ethena did as well). To put this in perspective, $800mm of buying pressure at current market cap / daily volume would be the functional equivalent of nearly $10B of SOL DAT buying, now while simultaneously expecting one of the first ETF approvals since Ethereum to come imminently.

I went through the full list of coins with CFTC regulated futures, and as far as I can tell, AVAX is the only included coin that isn't extremely high market cap but still has the ability to successfully raise DATs & hasn't yet spent their DAT raise.

So far it's become apparent that no amount of front-running has been enough to offset the actual impact of any of the DAT buys, with the effect literally doubling the price of Worldcoin and Eth, and Sol still moving straight up despite being known well in advance. I expect this to ultimately be the case here as well, and even just on technicals alone this looks like a clean run to $40+.

[AetherX Capital @AetherXCapital]

@DefiSquared The Avalanche weekly chart looks very bullish

A Buy Signal has already been triggered 🟢

$AVAX 1W

[Interesting AF @interesting_aIl]

Gaosu Sheying is a Chinese artist who creates mesmerizing slow-motion videos that turn fleeting moments into visual art.

[Koroush AK @KoroushAK]

Altseason Money Flow:

ETH> Major Caps > Mid and Micro Caps> Crash

This is outdated.

The money flow cycle has completely changed. Here's a Full Guide🧵:

[StarPlatinum @StarPlatinum_]

He bought Crypto in 2017 and got scammed.

Lost over $15,000.

Started reading block explorers to understand what happened.

Today he’s the most feared crypto investigator.

Who is ZachXBT?🧵

(1/11)

[TraderSebi @SebiTrader]

@BitcoinNewsCom @Grittoshi WTF! 🤬

[Oracle Boar @bored2boar]

10/➢ Final thought

FOMC didn’t change rates - but it changed the game

The window is OPEN, but you don't have much time left

Those who master memecoins now will dominate this cycle

Don’t sleep on it. Study articles. Rotate before the crowd.

This guide will help you👇

[Pix🔎 @PixBuilds]

I let my mom trade Phantom perps with $10,000.

Here’s what happened after one week:

1/11

[camol @camolNFT]

BREAKING NEWS: PumpFun $PUMP presale contract has no withdrawal function.

This effectively means the $500M raised is locked forever, as the smart contract is unable to be updated.

[TraderSebi @SebiTrader]

@RGivot777 @ardizor @pumpdotfun That one was held before @ardizor was in crypto. He couldn’t know it.
Many didn’t see this crazy time back in 2017/18

[CryptoSoulz @SoulzBTC]

In this THREAD I will explain “Pullbacks”

1. What is a Pullback?
2. What is a Reversal?
3. Trading Indicators

🧵(1/15)

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

The insides of planets

📹Imagined by AI

[NinjaX @IamTheNinjaX]

How to Determine Daily Bias (Part 1)

Understanding daily bias is key to smart entries.
Here’s a simple breakdown for consistent intraday direction 👇

A Thread 🧵

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Turkish photographer Uğur Gallenkuş portrays two different worlds within a single image.

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

15 years ago today Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoin.

That Bitcoin is now worth $1.2 BILLION

Happy Pizza Day 🍕