Sam O'Riil

Just watching the world on its way to the end.
Ukraine, war.
Disclaimer: not expert in anything.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@ChrisO_wiki Now Russia's collapse is ensured... Someone is going to run away with that gold.

[ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki]

If you want a clue as to why gasoline shortages are hitting Russians so badly, this map provides it...

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@pedro4rez @Rebel44CZ And it doesn't solve the cost asymmetry - interceptors are more expensive than ballistic missiles. It's not that bad as with missiles vs drones, but still...

Japan works on anti-ballistic missile defense using railguns. If they succeed it will be way cheaper. Can Europe do it?

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@kenul1_ken @bayraktar_1love The residents of neighboring buildings are even more thrilled to think about drones flying below the roof level and unavoidable misses when air defense fires at them. A single nimble drone can bait a lot of destruction to the area.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@windbreakfella @bayraktar_1love @simontrbojevic Just think about it. AD system on the rooftop is essentially defenseless against a small FPV drone flying up along the building's wall. Too little time to react when it gets there.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@windbreakfella @bayraktar_1love @simontrbojevic Well, attacking air defense with drones is tricky, it's not something you can let AI do yet. Without a good pilot it's also a matter of accuracy: you can't rely on GPS and visual target recognition is problematic.

But I guess we'll see soon deep strike drones carrying small FPV.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@PeterGlas6 @bayraktar_1love I have seen a thread about those somewhere. In short: higher-ups in Russian MoD and military itself actively resist restoring Shilkas and Tunguskas for some reason. Like they see it as nothing but wasting resources and prefer modern stuff.

Low ranks complained about it a lot.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@pedro4rez @Rebel44CZ SAMP/T NG with Aster 30 Block 1 NT missiles?

But honestly neither PAC-3 nor Aster 30 have high enough production rate against modern threats. Just Russia makes more ballistic missiles than the West makes interceptors combined. And we have Iran, China, North Korea on top of it.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@brad_odsen @ChrisO_wiki It's already a legitimate military target, but aside from occupied territories there are better targets for now.

Imported fuel will go via railroads - that's the next target after major fuel depots.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@Balabuha_INC @solonko1648 Просто зрозумійте, що якщо можна когось безкарно заламати та змусити підписати контракт на смерть, то вибити з нього ще всі ті виплати - це вже просто. А з таким мотивом ($20+ тис.за голову) та безкарністю бусифікатори будуть лише набирати темпи.

Там вже ціла індустрія на цьому.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@Balabuha_INC @solonko1648 Ні, є відео, де пакують. Не вистачає лохів помирати за бабло.

Основна відмінність від нашої бусифікації в тому, що у них це все оформляється як добровільне підписання контракту. З усіма виплатами за підписання контракту (але то піде не їм 😆). Офіційно це все ще не мобілізація.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@SinisterSilver2 @NotWoofers That reminds me that there are some plants related to missile production in Moscow yet to be hit. Quite a few were hit outside Moscow in the last year.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@Defence_blog A bit too late - AI can pilot a drone on the final part of the attack just fine. Just a year ago that would be unlikely.

Well, this EW system still protects against the cheapest kamikaze drones...

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@Defence_blog Such toys were popular in Ukraine 2014-2022... You don't see them there anymore for a reason.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@DerektheCleric @Defence_blog Also all kinds of artillery fire. Even if it's not a direct hit, there will be tons of flying fragments. Getting spotted by a recon drone and hit with artillery fire within 5-10 minutes is a norm now. Even in guerilla warfare combo of recon drone and a mortar is likely.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@Defence_blog "A unit that exchanged horses for tanks is now exchanging tanks for trucks, and the soldiers making that trade are betting their futures on the Army’s read of tomorrow’s battlefield."

Did you hear about drones?.. 🤔
Guys in a light truck are just sitting ducks.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@anothermarthian @CilvisNova @justincbzz The Russian government doesn't really care about it. Also they can just issue an air raid alert forcing civilians to hide in shelters.

They just don't have proximity/time fuse fragmented shells at all.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@CilvisNova @justincbzz WW2 era flak guns are just almost useless against drones. Modern stuff like Skyranger 35, Skynex - it's way beyond what Russia can mass produce even leaving required funding aside. Proximity fused or programmable ammunition is just too high tech for Russia.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@IanBake81980104 @justincbzz The same goes for any Russian AA cannon in service. Russia can't make or use any smart munition. And I doubt China would sell this stuff to Russia.

[Sam O'Riil @Semoriil]

@IanBake81980104 @justincbzz Russia is bad at mass produced electronics. Programmable ammunition is still at the prototype stage, proximity fused 23-30mm is just unreal for Russia.

That's why Pantsir's guns suck - they require a direct hit, otherwise they are useless against drones.