If you're confident in your edge then you can relax when it's not time to execute
Survival is a marathon not a sprint and only those who practice inaction will survive the long game
Price and OI reached demand zones, funding rates neutral, high vol and liqs on the crash and despite the escalations in the Middle East price is holding up at the volume POC.
I'm obviously no geopolitics/wartime expert, but on technical level this looks quite promising.
$BTC
“The major thing we look at is liquidity, meaning as a combination of an economic overview. Contrary to what a lot of the financial press has stated, looking at the great bull markets of this century, the best environment for stocks is a very dull, slow economy that the Federal Reserve is trying to get going...
--Stanely Druckenmiller
If you're actively trading, one of the best things you can do is to treat each trading day as a blank slate.
Act as if you just joined the market, unburdened by what has been (IYKYK).
"What is the market telling me today?"
That's much more productive than opening up TradingView and immediately torturing yourself with hindsight bias.
"I can't believe I fumbled A."
"If I held X I would have Y."
"Why didn't I long X?"
Don't be a prisoner of the past.
Every day is brimming with volatility, so focus on aligning yourself with the present, not dwelling on the past that you can't control.
I view selling like this:
- In bull markets I typically don't know where I'm going to sell, but I know I need to do it at some point.
- I'm aware psychologically of the impact of selling
When it comes to taking profit, recently my BTC trade has been a good example. I've been long from $60k, I'm +50% on the position and I'm roughly targeting $115k next.
Now, taking profit is the awkward part because nothing is ever going to feel good. You TP, it pumps, you feel shitty you sold some.
The best thing you can do is scale out. When we get periods of weakness or we get chop, I use it as a time to TP.
I TP in small batches to keep the majority of my stack (as I have longer term ambitions for price) and this allows me to negate the impact of sweeping decisions like cashing EVERYTHING.
Then psychologically you have to be very aware you're never going to time the top.
The best way to view this is that price is going to swing around below and above where you TP, but what matters is:
1. Are you changing your life financially
2. TP'ing allows you to have access to more capital to expose yourself to more opportunity
3. TP'ing allows you to end cycles feeling positive
The last point is important, when you take profit, don't worry about how it feels right now, in the moment, in the 15 minutes that follow or the next day.
Consider what it could look like at the end of the cycle, look at some alt charts. Would you be happy in summer this year knowing you scaled out at the highs.
Sure you might have missed the top by 10%, 15% whatever, but when it's all over and we're correcting/dooming again, that's when you look back and smile.
Spot on
Every single one of them is an opportunity to shit your pants & get sidelined too
If you have conviction in your bags you spent years positioning in, don't be a pussy & get sidelined before the main event
BTC is the daddy but your shitcoins will have their moment
The current macro and crypto landscape couldn't be more bullish:
• US favourable towards crypto for the first time in its history
• First pro-Bitcoin President who has also launched a DeFi project
• US will create a Bitcoin strategic reserve - nation state game theory may start to play out
• Hester Pierce (crypto mum) rumoured to replace Gensler as Chair of the SEC
• Early in the monetary easing cycle with global liquidity expansion to come
• BTC just broke out after 7 months of consolidation - "the longer the consolidation the stronger the move"
Despite this, I'm still seeing so much PTSD from the bear market. Many people are still trying to sell the first green candle they see on a new alt.
This industry has been held down for years by corrupt regulation in the US. The whole industry and asset class is a literal beach ball under water.
And ignore all of the day traders that say there is no adoption or use cases. They couldn't be more wrong. Smart contract blockchains are like 5 years old, and many verticals are soon to hit inflection points. Stablecoins are already the future of payments, and all of TradFi is about to tokenize everything.
Some of you have forgotten how insane a crypto bull market can really get.
We have the conditions and the set up for something extraordinary over the next 6-12 months.
Manifest your destiny.
Dream bigger.