Founder and CTO: @ComputeDesk. Exited Pace to FLYR. Formerly VP Research at Winton, particle physics at Harvard and CERN (Higgs discovery). MIT/Caltech alumnus
A composite token index basically hedges your exposure to random Chinese open models (Hy4preview, anyone?). But the mainstream financial media doesn't really want to use indexes, other than to fit the prevailing narrative.
This means compute futures are about to EXPLODE.
My prediction, Nvidia B300 1-year reservations will go for $9/gpu/hr in March 2027. $7 dollars will feel like the cheap old days. Bookmark this.
@ComputeDesk
Needless to say, the reason for the $DESKB300 gpu price ticker is exploding (We're calling it the "B300 Summer") is this. @Kimi_Moonshot, did this with KimiK3
Blackwell Ultra (B300) GPU rental prices up 17 consecutive days to a new all-time high, according to Compute Desk's index of verified transactions from U.S. neoclouds.
Nvidia hardware is an appreciating asset, with B300 value up 40% in 3 months.
"The B300 Summer". In July, @Kimi_Moonshot released KimiK3, expanding B300 demand and value. By late September @Supermicro "Gold SKU" supply on 4-week lead time was depleted, triggering a continued value increase, with no sign of slowing down.
Residual value for Nvidia hardware is increasing.
@NVIDIAAIInfra@JensenHuang
Nvidia hardware is an appreciating asset, with B300 value up 40% in 3 months.
"The B300 Summer". In July, @Kimi_Moonshot released KimiK3, expanding B300 demand and value. By late September @Supermicro "Gold SKU" supply on 4-week lead time was depleted, triggering a continued value increase, with no sign of slowing down.
Residual value for Nvidia hardware is increasing.
@NVIDIAAIInfra@JensenHuang
Anybody who has been trying to find B300s intuitively knows this. But not everyone is involved in the physical market. DESKB300 index gives you insight that the players in the physical market already have. Compute, and specifically NVIDIA compute remains in a supply crunch.
Nvidia hardware is an appreciating asset, with B300 value up 40% in 3 months.
"The B300 Summer". In July, @Kimi_Moonshot released KimiK3, expanding B300 demand and value. By late September @Supermicro "Gold SKU" supply on 4-week lead time was depleted, triggering a continued value increase, with no sign of slowing down.
Residual value for Nvidia hardware is increasing.
@NVIDIAAIInfra@JensenHuang
There's a misconception:
"a big compute market doesn’t imply a big hedge market. [...] a lot of capacity is locked into fixed-price deals."
The entire compute market today is *FULLY* hedged. Fixed-price deals ARE the hedge. But, it's a horrible *full* hedge.
Compute derivatives will replace the "offtakes" with instruments allowing a finer-grained control over risk.
Sellers hate offtakes, because they want to get better rates on riskier shorter-term rentals. Buyers also hate them, because they want flexibility.
Compute derivatives allow more risktaking and more flexibility. The reason there's a compute shortage is that risk-taking and speculation is not possible.
This is otherwise a fantastic article, thanks for the @ComputeDesk mention.
How do we know compute is a commodity ?
We track >500 GPU compute providers. Hyper-fragmentation is a hallmark sign of a commodity offering.
@ComputeDesk is making compute tradable.
"Once upon a time there used to be hyperscalers".
I cover @ComputeDesk, our compute indexes (incl. $DESKH100), the wheeler dealer compute traders making millions, and the inevitable consequences of compute capital markets. Along with my friend @BrettHarrison of @Architect_Fi .
Great interview with @SenorScience of @ComputeDesk. He kicks it off strongly by calling compute a lot like electricity. @NodalExchange
The Knowledge: a snapshot of compute markets with David Lopez Mateos, Co... https://t.co/zARSgaWDxR via @YouTube