Sergey Chetvertakov

Commodity analyst with @ieg_vantage since 2016, specializing in world sugar and cocoa markets

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

@StephenGeldart @ARealSugarExprt @phemsworth But then India comes into play

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

In its latest report @IntlCocoaOrg only slightly reduced the expected #cocoa deficit for 2019/20 to 80 ths tonnes from 85 forecast previously. Such a small reduction might be too conservative

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

This Friday @IntlCocoaOrg is expected to publish its updated 2019/20 #cocoa balance forecast. The main question - will they trim consumption and turn the balance to a surplus this season, as many rumors suggest?

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

The U.S. grind figures were negative, with Q1 2020 down -5.1% year-on-year - as expected

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

Fresh #cocoa grinding figures: Malaysia -6.1% in Q1 2020, Brazil +6.55%. Malaysian number seems like a canary in the mine

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

@AnujPoddar18 EU is scheduled to release data on April 22, US - on April 16. Asia - also this or next week

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

This is time for Q2 #cocoa grinding numbers. Analysts expect a substantial decline: EU -3%, NA -5.3%, Asia -9%

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

@AnujPoddar18 This depends on oil prices in the next 4 months. If you want forecast sugar prices for this period, forecast oil prices first

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

There is so much unjustifiable speculation over lower sugar demand due to COVID-19! Sometimes analysts build assumptions on their beliefs and not on research
https://t.co/zzN5Pebr9T

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

Bullish for sugar!

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

Free analysis of the #COVID2019 impact across multiple markets. I'm sure that many will find it useful
https://t.co/VSbjoetDZp

[Stefan Uhlenbrock @realStefanU]

There‘s uncertainty in the market whether the COVID-19 pandemic is reducing global sugar demand. The world‘s largest sugar producer, #Südzucker, for its part issued a statement in which it guarantees supply of its customers „despite high demand.“

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

The world #sugar market's gone crazy. The crash of oil prices and unprecedently weak real shifted the supply curve of Brazilian sugar production. I'm curious when sugar prices rebound - we still expect a deficit over 11MMT

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

@ARealSugarExprt Might be a good option to import white sugar from the world market - thanks to falling prices, imported duty-paid sugar will not cost more than domestic cane sugar

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

@Cornfrmr It's not only the death rate that matters but contagious. How many workers can be put on quarantine without supply chain disruption? What would happen if your office is closed due to quarantine - how your company will do?This is the reason for so harsh measures and recession risk

[Sandra Boga @chicacacao]

🎧LISTEN to our latest podcast on the impact of #coronavirus on #China's agribusiness. This includes; trade restrictions, congestion charges and the country's boom in online grocery shopping.
https://t.co/9vWpEnCfFh

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

After the latest numbers from Thai and India, I do not understand how the world #sugar market may finish 2020 at 15c/lb as per the #Reuters poll published last week

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

@ARealSugarExprt I've heard some local experts - they also stick to this number, but mention that the risk is to the downside

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

@cocoa_ny Kind of both - mainly the stocks are expected to fall due to higher pace of grinding compared to the production increase. Regarding stockpiling - this is the main reason for the price rally on the futures market, I think. Everybody wants to buy relatively cheap cocoa with no LID

[Sergey Chetvertakov @Sergey_Chet]

Our latest #cocoa balance revision: stocks to grind ratio in 2019/20 may become the lowest since 1984/85: 33.6%, down from 35.4% in 2018/19