Sergio Vale

Economista-chefe da MB Associados, pesquisador do Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA-USP) e colunista de Exame. Prêmio de economista-chefe de 2023 pela OEB.

[Sergio Vale @SergioRVale]

https://t.co/ikug8USH0t

[Sergio Vale @SergioRVale]

https://t.co/Dv9INUNGST

[Daniel Duque @dannielduque]

No Brasil, a renda de quem tem mais de 65 anos é superior à de quem está no auge da vida adulta

Na maioria dos países, essa proporção é significativamente menor

Onde não é, há um eterno problema fiscal, tal como a França

https://t.co/SRfG54S6hP

[World Meteorological Organization @WMO]

The ocean continued to warm in 2025, reaching record high levels.

It is expected that the ocean will continue to warm well into the future – a change which is irreversible for hundreds to thousands of years.

Check out the #StateOfClimate 2025: https://t.co/THJBFJmvww

[NBER @nberpubs]

Studying how cash transfers affect work and health, from @myklebest, @FelipeLobel, and Valdemar Pinho Neto https://t.co/n1whakpjzT

[𝗡𝘂𝗻𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗮 @nunopgpalma]

📢New paper: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐚 𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐧: 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡, 𝟏𝟓𝟕𝟒–𝟏𝟗𝟐𝟎.
Joint with @glambais.
We built the first long-run GDP per capita series for Brazil, using 30,000+ archival price and wage observations across major regions🧵

[Sergio Vale @SergioRVale]

Perspectivas do mercado no Brasil e no mundo em 2026 | ECONOMIA EM FOCO https://t.co/x4usnqs1xg via @YouTube

[Sergio Vale @SergioRVale]

https://t.co/s7pjtYTkk9

[Rafael Dix-Carneiro @dix_rafael]

🚨 Forthcoming in Econometrica!

How does trade liberalization affect developing countries with large informal sectors?

Informality fundamentally changes how we think about the gains from trade. (1/5)

[Econometrica @ecmaEditors]

In settings with high informality, the gains from trade are significantly amplified by reductions in misallocation. During economic downturns, the informal sector acts as a buffer against unemployment but leads to larger aggregate real-income losses. https://t.co/r6WFr9vKcE

[Sergio Vale @SergioRVale]

Conversa com ⁦@NatuzaNery⁩ para o podcast O Assunto. https://t.co/6Fa1sj2Wl8

[Martin Wolf @martinwolf_]

Martin Wolf: The economy in 2026: What risks lie ahead? With Gita Gopinath https://t.co/nF79G4c8jW

[Jonathan LaBerge @JLaBergeBCA]

Some telling data on the AI ROI gap

https://t.co/CluCOpzBdl

[Barry Eichengreen @B_Eichengreen]

An incredible public good: https://t.co/eyxil0coOs

[IMF @IMFNews]

Chess taught Kenneth Rogoff about control. He now sees the dollar’s grip on global finance under pressure. Read more in F&D magazine. https://t.co/kU9i8dZSH2

[Sergio Vale @SergioRVale]

O Brasil que demora: quando o Estado atrasa, o país perde | BM&C STRIKE https://t.co/QOGCzCVU4D via @YouTube

[NBER @nberpubs]

Minimum wages in Brazil substantially raised wages for informal workers, and effects of the policy on reallocation out of formal employment were limited, from @EDerenoncourt, @fgerard_BE, @lagoslorenzo, and @cmontialoux https://t.co/6cBNZC5mdJ

[Arpit Gupta @arpitrage]

Very cool JMP by @ppcreanza: the Gilded Era merger wave didn't kill innovation, it turbo boosted it.

Large scale consolidation in early 20th century enabled large industrial labs, lower cost of capital, and more breakthrough patents

https://t.co/Jy2H37Bkme

[IMF @IMFNews]

Fintech, big tech, and banks are reshaping finance—sometimes competing, often collaborating. Public policy must keep pace, Aldasoro, Frost, and Shreeti write in F&D magazine. https://t.co/6oVpmERbBj

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

Land areas warm faster than the oceans - just as predicted since many decades. It’s basic physics, seen each spring as well. But climate deniers pretend to not know it.
It also means: 1.5 C global warming is more like 3 C where we live and grow our food: on land.