Seth William Anderson

economics, sports modeling.

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@btbanalytics1 Great points!

[BTB Analytics @AnalyticsBTB]

LSU vs Kentucky Prediction

Our model makes Kentucky +9.5; market: +8.5.

NO BET: Does not meet our 3% edge threshold.

There are 11 games this week that clear our 3% edge threshold.

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@tejfbanalytics See also “D.Carr”

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

Well what it really shows is your modeling knowledge is flawed. This is an extremely liquid game, the idea that you could have this level of edge undermines that fact that a market knows things your models does not. Even if you in fact have a good model. At a minimum you would need to regress your final number back to the market. Because, what will happen. And has probably happened in the past, your model will generate some alpha but a munch of noise. Ie a bunch of edges that look real but are actually just you not pricing something the market is. And you barely will clear 52.4% if at all

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@TakeorMake Does this loss hurt more than say an equivalent or higher win feels good? If I can double dip. What gives you signal that your processes is sound? Is it just past results or some type of market signal like clv?

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@Matt_barlowe Definitely no

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

Genuine question; of course I agree with your premise, having a model does not equal an edge. But ai is now unlocking a class of thinkers/doers who have domain knowledge and now can express that with code( we likely both agree still rare). The question, how would these people know that this is valuable? I hear this premise from very experienced bettors but the “new” sharp has no idea they are betting into a market and no access to capital they would need to bet a worth while return.

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@btbanalytics1 What do you make ole miss?!

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

Rapid Fire College Football Predictions. Let us know who you want to see in the comments

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

NFL closing lines charge 1.4 points for home field. Across our 7,014 game database, since 2000, it's actually worth 2.3, and home teams have beaten the close, on average, five straight seasons because the market overreacted to 2019-20 and never corrected.

Here's a full answer from the venue model, free: Washington is the only stadium in football worth negative points at home, -0.19 with rosters, rest, and weather stripped out. And before you hammer every home team, know the edge is 0.8 points against 13.5 points of noise, so treat it as an input to your numbers, not a system.

The other 33 venues, including the fortress that was mostly a QB and where Denver's altitude actually ranks: https://t.co/dD7ZYHh06z

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

Week 1 lines have been open since May, the rest of the season gets six days and Week 1 spreads are no more accurate (MAE 9.94 vs 10.28, p = 0.43).

Efficiency isn't time on the board, it's liquidity of informed money.

But the reality you have to come to terms with: the NFL is a high-variance sport.! There are hard limits on how well anyone can predict it. RMSE = 13.2 points. Only 22% of games land within 3 of the number. 12% miss by 21+. The 95% band around a spread is ~52 points wide.

Understand the limits of markets and models. AI cannot save you here!

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@BudElliott3 We didn’t, we merely survived

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@manulbets2 Oh wow very interesting! Do you just combine the models via a normization process or how do you get the final output?

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@btbanalytics1 👏👏👏

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@JohnAnthony1M @btbanalytics1 No not him but every other portal add. One player other than a qb can move wins that much imo

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@abcampbell You’re uniquely qualified to comment on this. It’s clear you learned a lot from Ray, but have also developed views beyond his framework. Would you be willing to expand on who you think actually wins what comes next?

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@robin_j_brooks Can I ask I naive question. There seems to be a lot of talk about Warsh cutting rates but is it that easy? He is juts one vote and with the unknown of Powell and other fed governors staying or not, does this not factor in on how easy it will be for him to cut/not cut?

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

@AndreasSteno For people who are newer to macro but have been learning through this process and want to go deeper, could you lay out the bear case for metals in your portfolio in 2026? Specifically, what signals would tell us that this thesis (or a version of it) is wrong?

[Seth William Anderson @SethWillia687]

Thanks for taking the time to explain, that makes sense. I hadn’t fully separated the mechanical FX translation effect from underlying fundamentals. Helpful framing that part of the move in gold/silver can simply be the unit of account changing, and that when the dollar stabilizes or rebounds that tailwind can fade or reverse even if nothing else breaks. Appreciate the perspective.