The last time @jpn_memelord threw cold water on popular projections of the impact of the ethereum:0x1f9840a85d5af5bf1d1762f925bdaddc4201f984 fee switch it was problematic enough to provoke a CEO response.
He was told he was "wrong, overeager and misleading."
Turns out he was right -- and he's back at it again. 👇
My best estimates for @Uniswap fee switch for v4 and Robinhood:
v4 fees: $30k per day ($11m annualized)
Robinhood: $125k per day ($46m annualized)*
*this likely goes down to $25k after a week or two, or $9m annualized
These are far lower than others estimates, here is why 🧵👇
FWIW the only reason I even knew that $PUMP had unlocks coming is because it has been flagged on the Net Token Value Flows dash for months.
It aggregates unlocks (and other emissions data) from folks like @DefiLlama + @Tokenomist_ai.
https://t.co/1E27nQs4fK
The upgraded Aero dashboard is pretty awesome.
One place to check all the top stats across @AerodromeFi and @VelodromeFi ahead of the merge.
https://t.co/5Qr6qwizjJ
The takes on Robinhood are so over the top at this point.
It is great to see teams building on Ethereum, but sucuess will not be overnight.
It is new and exciting, but the real impacts will take months to years to show up. Infrastructure will need to be deployed, TVL will take time to migrate, new protocols need time to prove themselves.
It is a great step, I hope it is indicative of things to come, but it cannot be judged on the first 10 days.
The hype will fade, in a week or two people will be asking what went wrong, and my answer will be the same as it is now: these things take time.
Don't let fomo take over here, see and contribute to what develops over the next 6-12 months.
Most top line values can manipulated on chains with cheap transactions.
Volume can be from washtrading or rugs, active addresses can be bottled, holders of equities can be gamed by holding very tiny fractions.
Assume farmers are farming when checking metrics.
Most tokens are smart contracts deployed on top of a chain.
B20 tokens are native to Base - built directly into the protocol.
The B20 Native Token Standard explained 🧵
"Blockchain not bitcoin." The TradFi crowd loved that line back in 2017. Use the technology but skip the open, permissionless bits and the volatile asset part.
That sentiment is doing the rounds again now the majors like BTC and ETH are lagging the wider market, causing people to question the value of crypto-assets.
It’s wrong btw.
As you may have noticed, institutions are now issuing real world assets on public chains.
This is precisely because that's how the asset reaches global aggregated liquidity and can be borrowed and lent on composable DeFi. That only happens on an open chain with a strong ecosystem.
Crypto is going to eat TradFi - not the reverse.
This is incredibly bullish for the chains and the apps built on them.
And a reminder: Coinbase is about to put proper, regulated tokenised stocks on Base. The real deal and a true inflection point. Coming soon.
The first week Base launched, Uniswap pools there did $48m in volume. Last week, those same pools did $426k in volume, less than 1% of the launch week volume.
The current volume of these pools is dominated by USDbC-WETH ($293k) and then DAI-USDbC ($61k) and cbETH-WETH ($53k).
The first week does not indicate long term success, it is just a pop up casino. Most infra plays are not deployed and the largest drivers of volume are not launched.
History doesn't repeat, but it usually rhymes. Most of the current activity on Robinhood chain is transient, it is memes that will not trade in a few years, maybe not even in a few hours. That is just how the system is set up.
There can absolutely be long term success, but it will take a while for that to arise and the activity will look completely different than it does now.
Worth watching, but anyone posting about current trading volume there is looking at noise, not signal.
@wagmiAlexander Back when UNI launched, and everyone was lining up to sing his praises because of the airdrop, I said something along the lines of it being a BANCOR fork project with somehow shittier tokenomics.
JPN is the definition of a cordial, factual, data-driven perspective on CT.
The fact that @Uniswap CEO resorts to ad hominems and blocks him because he can't handle basic reality speaks volumes.