Severus Qu

Intern @_no_capital
Prev. @HashKey_Capital / @flow_blockchain / @geek_cartel

[vivienna.btc @viviennaBTC]

终于把磨了好久的四大宏观(美债、美元、黄金、通胀)看板上线啦！
最近彻底沉迷 AI Coding，每天用 Claude 写代码写到半夜，一版一版迭代调试，总算把这套自己梦寐以求的实时看板做出来了～

为什么要做这些？

宏观因子建模本质上是把高维、噪声大、强相关的时间序列数据，转化为低维、可解释、可预测的信号，用于资产配置、择时和风险管理。

我把常见的宏观因子分成几大类：

• 利率/货币政策类：真实利率、期限利差、forward curve、政策预期路径

• 通胀类：核心通胀、预期通胀（breakeven）、薪资-通胀螺旋、财政驱动

• 增长/风险偏好类：增长 surprise、信用利差、VIX、美元carry

• 商品/避险类：黄金真实收益率敏感度、地缘风险溢价

• 流动性/供给类：美债净供给、央行资产负债表、美元流动性指数

我选择了黄金、美元、美债、通胀因子这四个类别。

对资产管理最实际的帮助：

• 快速抓住宏观拐点
• 看清多因子驱动逻辑
• 辅助大类资产配置和风险对冲
• 自己改权重、自己看结果，超级爽

四大看板亮点：

美债看板
实时收益率曲线 + 智能因子计分卡（-2到+2自动打分，帮你判断久期和曲线立场）+ 政策路径 + 供给资金流

https://t.co/bfvzxm3BNk

美元看板
DXY多因子估值模型（利率差+风险溢价+便利收益+波动预警）+ 综合评分 + 持仓分析，一眼看美元强弱

https://t.co/DHdOCDhh0T

黄金看板
多因子信号强度 + SHAP归因瀑布图 + 体制切换预测，搞懂黄金到底在涨啥

https://t.co/4wtOe2V5Je

通胀因子看板
五维通胀压力评分 + 四资产信号塔 + 体制诊断，提前闻到通胀味儿

https://t.co/e3oAYbyADv

重要提醒：这些看板仅供教育和研究使用，绝不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，决策还得靠自己！

全部免费、数据实时更新，还支持自定义因子权重。感兴趣的同学可以一起开放交流量化建模方法与实际落地流程。
欢迎大家来玩、来反馈、来一起交流～ 我继续用 Claude 肝新模块！

#宏观交易 #黄金 #美债 #美元 #通胀 #AI_Coding #Claude （vivienna.btc × Claude 沉迷副产物）

[salvo @salvoid42]

https://t.co/9lqQ1EjDRc

[Severus Qu @SeverusQu]

@moonbirds Birbish!!!

[Severus Qu @SeverusQu]

@spencer 🥳🥳🥳

[Quip Network @quipnetwork]

We're starting a short form video channel to address some of the complex topics at the intersection of quantum computing and cryptocurrency in a more approachable way

Check the next post for a link to the video! 👇📺

[Orange Cap Games @Ocapgames]

We are excited to share that @ocapgames has raised a $3.5m Seed round lead by @1kxnetwork & @yugalabs

This capital helps us bring IP to life while growing the @vibes_tcg & @moonbirds products and ecosystems.

[Vibes TCG @vibes_tcg]

Orange Cap Games is excited to announce our $2m pre-seed angel round.

This funding allows up to bring IP to life through our upcoming trading card game Vibes featuring the @pudgypenguins IP. We are deeply appreciative of all their support!

[salvo @salvoid42]

如果牛市没有结束，我们将看到70-79附近BTC的堆积，同时消化一些83和96附近的筹码。

接下来，一些关键点位来决定是不是结束了
- 69-71 区间的30万颗筹码支撑
- 67.4 微策略平均持仓成本
- 59-62 区间的120万颗筹码支撑
- 62 本轮周期的中位

[UnifAI Network @UnifaiNetwork]

🚀 UniVerse Points Program – Season 1 is LIVE!

Time is ticking—join now: https://t.co/qBxfkJDhLA

UnifAI Network = "MCP" for Web3
UniQ by UnifAI = "Manus" for Web3

From optimizing DeFi strategies to execute complex onchain transactions, UniQ is your web3 financial analyst. Here are 8 powerful ways to use UniQ by UnifAI today. 🧵👇

#UnifAINetwork #MCP #DeFi

[Forrest ⁒ Opinion @ForrestOLAB]

https://t.co/bkt6SDxNR2

[IcoBeast.eth🦇🔊 @icobeast]

For anyone who didn’t get to watch the Hyperliquid saga unfold in real time today - I present to you a video explainer as put together by @printer_brrr

Best El Risitas dub I’ve seen in a loooooooong time

[Jims @JimsYoung_]

交易所和公链操盘的思路真的很不一样：

公链操盘的逻辑是，

用一个拉到起飞的Meme币把散户的主币都质押到越拉越大的流动性池里，

在meme的高点出货主币/维持高币价，

然后用流动性逼宫交易所上现货完成一轮退出深藏功与名，

还留了财富效应下次还来，

但交易所会被浇给。

交易所操盘的逻辑是，

用N个拉起来的中等Meme把散户的主币质押到N个池子以量取胜，

然后用生态位优势分层点兵点将，上合约增加博弈，同时也增加一个币的生命周期从而增加留存时长，

赚手续费的钱同时，让博弈充分发生从而避免被浇给。

掌握流动性的人掌握定价权。

#MEMECoin $mubarak $quq

[Severus Qu @SeverusQu]

@ChildishPhillip 当年有很多所谓深度评测机构，后来中立的饿死了，不中立的实际上变成喊单机构了
其实也有类似ib的角色存在，只不过是直接抢token，然后到了交易所还要给token，实际上是渠道业务的外包和变现
其实第三方的auditor和admin也是有的，只不过没人在乎
最终发现其实核心问题出在了，这行业根本没有基本面🤡

[0xJeff @0xJeff]

Where the AI Agent Space Stands Right Now PT.5

As we approach the holiday season, the market is starting to slow down. After the recent FOMC-induced dump, major ecosystem tokens like $VIRTUAL and $AI16Z are beginning to recover.

$VIRTUAL in particular is climbing back toward a $3 billion market cap.
• Virtual Dominance Index: 77% dominance
• AI16Z Dominance: 20% dominance

Meanwhile, $ZEREBRO has remained relatively stable, bolstered by its launch of ZerePy and deeper integrations with @ai16zdao.

However, smaller AI agent ecosystems and individual agent tokens have struggled, with many seeing sharp declines of 20-80% over the past week.

Some of the hardest-hit agent tokens (MC | Last 7 days):
• $GRIFFAIN: $197M (-23%)
• $ALCH: $60M (-46%)
• $BULLY: $49M (-40%)
• $KWEEN: $31M (-42%)
• $GRIFT: $23M (-60%)
• $TANK: $13M (-38%)
• $REALIS: $13M (-49%)
• $SAINT: $7.4M (-47%)
• $KWANT: $1.5M (-79%)

In contrast, Virtuals ecosystem agents have been outperforming, with several trading above their prices from last week.

Notable Performers

$SEKOIA ($33M, +70%)

• Sekoia is positioning itself as the number one AI Crypto VC, with a strong reputation as a “rubber stamp” for investment-worthy projects.

• It recently made four strategic investments: $SERAPH, $TAOCAT, $J3FF, and $GEKKO, several of which have already performed well.

• Sekoia’s December update by @ai outlined its vision and solidified its status as a trusted investment partner for new projects.

Read more https://t.co/RNu5Jncm6M.

————————————————

$VADER ($52M, +21%)

• @Vader_AI_ launched VaderAI Fun a week ago, a platform similar to daosdotfun, enabling the creation of investment DAOs.

• Two DAOs—@icobeast and VaderAI Small Cap—have already launched and filled their allocations quickly.

Key stats:
• 49% of $VADER staked
• Holder count surged from 15K to 75K.
This demand for staking is driving $VADER’s upward momentum.

————————————————

$AIXBT ($304M, +16%)

• The leading alpha-focused agent on CT, @aixbt_agent, continues to dominate the space, spitting out actionable insights daily.

• The recent listing of $AIXBT on Binance Futures and its inclusion in Binance Alpha Track have added to its strong performance, with speculation of a Binance spot listing on the horizon.

————————————————

Emerging Trends & Key Setups

Alpha-Focused Agents:

• Beyond @aixbt_agent, @unit00x0 is emerging as a strong contender, evidenced by its $REI price action and growing mindshare.

• Another notable name is @_AgentScarlett (powered by Eliza), specializing in token holder and distribution analysis. Its token $AGENCY more than doubled in the last 24 hours.

Other alpha agents have seen sharp pullbacks:
• $KWANT, $SAINT, and $TRUST: Large retracements
• $NIKITA: Holding steady following its terminal launch.

Rug Prevention Agents:

@tri_sigma_ / $TRISIG gained traction with on-chain analysis that flags potential rug pulls. The token surged 1,200% in the last week and is now trading at a $42M market cap.

————————————————

Blended Ecosystem Tokens:

$TAOCAT, blending $VIRTUAL and $TAO subnets, has shown strong price action and serves as a leveraged play on $VIRTUAL, $TAO, and $MASA.

————————————————

InvestmentDAO Narratives:

$SEKOIA and $VADER are leading this charge, but smaller, more degen plays like @wai_combinator ($WAI) are also gaining traction. $WAI focuses on Virtuals micro-cap trading and aims to support projects under $2M MC with capital and curated product feedback.

Key stats:
• Current Investments: $TRUST, $CERTAI, and $ISTAR.
• 50% of net returns from WAI’s allocations go to token holders.

Read WAI’s Memo: https://t.co/sLNXh14hCb.

————————————————

Data x Agent Plays:

$COOKIE remains a standout, offering strong traction and relentless product delivery. It’s shaping up as one of the most promising bets in the data x agent space this season.

————————————————

Navigating the Crabby Market

With the market slowing down for the holidays, major ecosystem coins like $VIRTUAL and $AI16Z remain the safest plays. Both have potential Tier-1 exchange listings in the pipeline:

• $VIRTUAL: Expect agent society rollouts and new unique agent launches.
• $AI16Z: Look out for deeper integrations and a potential tokenomics revamp.

————————————————

What's Next?

I'll continue to observe the market especially with the conclusion of Solana & Mode AI Hackathon (less than 14 hrs away)

If you're not caught up with 2024 Agent Recap and What's Coming in 2025, do check out my latest content piece below

Part (1/2): https://t.co/TIZIolkjsq

Part (2/2): https://t.co/ejEhOCJZQt

Thanks for reading as always! Merry Christmas and Enjoy Your Holidays!

[Severus Qu @SeverusQu]

@broleon @gate_io 我的买入成本恰好就是你截图那瞬间的价格，10.2u，hhhhhhh

[Severus Qu @SeverusQu]

@broleon @gate_io 是的，傻子就是我，更骚的是人家后来悄咪咪把k线改了，还好我前后都截图了

[Nubit | Bitcoin Thunderbolt @nubit_org]

1/ We are elated to announce our $3M Pre-Seed round participated by prominent investors, including dao5 (@daofive), OKX Ventures (@OKX_Ventures), and Primitive Ventures (@primitivecrypto). Nubit is pioneering a bitcoin-native future with enhanced data throughput and availability services, setting the stage for a paradigm shift in the Bitcoin landscape.

[Sahara AI 🔆 @SaharaAI]

1/ Introducing Sahara - Not many AI/web3 startups come out of stealth with more than 30 enterprise clients. But we did! We are building the first decentralized AI network that allows everyone, individuals or businesses, to deploy autonomous AI freely and securely. 🌐 Say farewell to limitations and embrace a world of customized autonomous AIs, all powered by trustlessness, permissionlessness, and a focus on privacy, ownership and provenance. 💡

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

Sahara, the latest startup to blend crypto and AI, has raised $6M in seed funding to build AI models that kick back rewards to their trainers.

@skesslr reports
https://t.co/LnoAn3484o

[EthStorage @EthStorage]

1/3 @EthStorage is going modular with @CelestiaOrg underneath ✨ We're gearing up to provide a long-term DA storage solution for Ethereum L2/L3.

More details 👉https://t.co/o1FN5SBS5B