Shahar Koifman

@conspectusintel. Intelligence background with expertise spanning geopolitics, financial technology. Focused on macro forces and their consequences.

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

As reports of agreement between Iran and Oman come in, maybe it’s best to remember that we’ve already been there. Iran continues to *reject* compromise, though it wants the blame to fall on Trump. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

IRGC spokesman on the Strait of Hormuz:

"If the United States does not accept our conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened under any circumstances. The Strait of Hormuz is under our control, and there are no enemy military vessels in it. All enemy war vessels are at least a kilometer away from the strait, and from a military and territorial point of view, no vessel can cross this sea route without Iran's approval and management."

"During the negotiations with Oman, agreements were reached regarding the share of each of the two countries in the waters of the strait, as well as the share of Iran and Oman in the revenues arising from it. The United States is interfering with this process, and this is causing delays."

"If the United States stops the disruption and returns to the agreement, we can open the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the agreement reached. Therefore, our conditions must be accepted by the United States. If it does not accept our conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened under any circumstances."

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

The last time (2006-2012-2014) took a long time to bring Iran to the table. Its condition then was better, but the existential threat wasn’t as severe. Anyhow, it’s gonna take some patience and effective foiling of Iran’s counter-measures. @conspectusintel

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

ICYMI: ISW and @criticalthreats assessed on Friday that IRGC commander Vahidi’s hardline faction remains in a stronger position to argue that continued pressure on the United States, rather than Iranian concessions, can secure the regime’s objectives. Iranian regime decision-making may therefore take a long time to react to economic deterioration, even as the Iranian economy worsens.

Read the full assessment via the link below ⬇️

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

As oil is increasingly taken out of Hormuz, Iran’s cards become less valuable and the pressure starts mounting. But for the IRGC, this is existential. They’ll be looking for (likely violent) ways to change the calculus again. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Iran International English @IranIntl_En]

Iranian families are cutting back on food and other essentials as sanctions, war and a naval blockade deepen economic pressure, the Associated Press reported.

Rice prices are 60% higher and beef prices 150% higher than before the war, while inflation is expected to approach 70% by year-end and the economy to shrink by more than 5%, according to the report.

The money workers earn is worth about half as much as a year ago, putting food, medicine and other essentials further out of reach. Iran is also consuming more gasoline each day than it produces and may need to raise prices as supplies tighten, according to the report.

Malek Hosseini, Iran’s deputy labor minister for entrepreneurship and employment development, said more than 1 million formal-sector jobs had been lost during the 40-day war, the semi-official Mehr News Agency reported.
https://t.co/JtlrboOCNK

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

Pressure seems to be working faster than I expected. But as Raz sums up, it doesn’t necessarily equate to chances going up for any type of settlement. The question is if the IRGC’s appetite for adventure goes down. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Raz Zimmt @RZimmt]

Significant statements from Tehran today point to a growing recognition among the Iranian leadership of the severity of the economic situation and the erosion of Iran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in light of U.S. military gains in opening a corridor through the strait.

President Pezeshkian stressed that the government does not deny the shortages and that it would be better to end the war now, while Iran is in a position of strength and dignity and the entire world recognizes its victory. Majles Speaker Qalibaf stated that no matter how much military power Iran possesses, if the people are hungry, it will not be able to endure.

Nevertheless, at this stage, there is still no indication that Iran is prepared to show flexibility and return to the MOU without preconditions, apart from its original demand for the lifting of the naval blockade and some sanctions relief. Tehran still appears to assess that, despite recent developments, it retains the ability to inflict significantly greater damage on the global economy and its Gulf neighbors, and that the price of a possible escalation (even to the point of renewed hostilities) is lower than the cost of yielding to U.S. demands and reopening Hormuz unconditionally in return for a temporary ceasefire that does not guarantee an end to the war and that, from Tehran’s perspective, could be terminated after the November midterm elections.

Moreover, the ambiguous messages coming from the United States, including Treasury Secretary Bessent’s statement yesterday, in which he once again spoke about the collapse of the Iranian regime, could reinforce opposition in Tehran to any possible agreement. It is not clear that Tehran understands what the United States is prepared to offer Iran at this stage, particularly when President Trump himself appears confident that economic pressure can achieve what military pressure failed to accomplish.

The bottom line, therefore, is that even if there is a growing recognition in Tehran that the current situation is not working in Iran’s favor, it is far from certain that this will be enough to build the necessary consensus—including among Ahmad Vahidi, Mohsen Rezaei, and more importantly Mojtaba Khamenei—to allow a change of course.

[Liquidated Degen @liquidatedxxx]

A hidden gem in Iran-related markets 💎

“What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?”

Iran Reconstruction Funding - YES at 23%

According to Iran quant @ShaharKoifman, a former IDF analyst, reconstruction funding is very likely to be part of any US-Iran deal. It’s also one of the most reasonable concessions Iran could get after being bombed heavily.

The real question is: will there even be a deal this year?

The market currently prices “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31” at 37%, which suggests traders still see a meaningful chance of a deal in 2026.

So we can break down the fair value of reconstruction funding as:

Probability of funding, conditional on a deal: ~85%
Probability of a deal, using Hormuz as a proxy: ~37%

0.85 × 0.37 = 31%
Market price: 23%
My fair value: ~31%

That’s a pretty meaningful gap.

YES looks mispriced here.

[Conspectus @conspectusintel]

Israel is just over two months away from its first national vote since October 7th, 2023 - a verdict on three years of war and the internal rift that came before it.

And no one seems to agree on what's going to happen.

Israeli seat polls don't just disagree, they disagree by an entire government. Mainstream pollsters put Netanyahu's bloc at 48-52 seats; coalition-leaning polls say 59-62. The line is 61.

Does Netanyahu's coalition survive? Is Eisenkot a true threat? Who needs to align to gain power? What are the issues actually underpinning this election?

There is a lot of noise out there. We bring the most valuable data together and break it down in a way that elevates what's important.

If you want to know your stuff: https://t.co/LrxYoYT6BF

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

Guess those Hormuz fees are not gonna happen that quickly. Still the most likely solution to this problem in the long run - but has to work for both sides, which obviously is not the case right now.

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

This conflict never ceases to surprise. Iran reached a good deal and decided to step back. Now the US adopts the plan it should’ve back in March: no more empty threats, just contain Iran until it figures its dire condition. Let’s see who cracks first. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

This conflict never ceases to surprise. Iran reached a good deal and decided to step back. Now the US adopts the plan it should’ve back in March: no more empty threats, just contain Iran until it figures its dire condition. Let’s see who cracks first. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Axios @axios]

Trump to Axios: "We are low keying it" with Iran https://t.co/bxCi4pyiQg

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says deal with Iran on Strait of Hormuz may happen 'today or tomorrow'

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/aa5KbehurW

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

The Iranian moderates trying to lift the flag again and signal to both hardliners and Trump. Once (if) Hormuz is settled, the next step is getting the MOU back into play. And it might. But the problems are not gonna get simpler. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Masoud Pezeshkian @drpezeshkian]

تفاهم‌نامه‌ای که امضا شد حاصل خرد جمعی اعضای شعام بود و همه اعضا با آن همدل‌اند. باور دارم این تفاهم‌نامه مرکز ثقل روابط خارجی ما در آینده خواهد ��ود. باید بکوشیم دشمن را وادار کنیم به آنچه امضا کرده پایبند بماند. امنیت کشور، منطقه و هم‌پیمانان ما با این تفاهم‌نامه ارتقا می‌یابد.

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

It was on the table all along. Entering ships will come in through the Iranian lane (+ fees), exiting through the Omani (more fees). Wonder if this time it is really finalized or we need one more cycle of threats and missiles. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages, Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi said, according to IRNA, after the US said it had called of an attack on Iran to give room for diplomacy.

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

As the focus shifts (again? who can keep count) to threats of military action, it’s important to keep one eye on this track. Unless there’s another underground track (always a possibility), this is the only way out. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Raz Zimmt @RZimmt]

Al Jazeera's Tehran bureau chief:
Talks between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz are continuing and have not been suspended, even after the renewed tensions between the United States and Iran.
There is discussion of an Iranian proposal that could bring the two sides closer to an agreement, and there are indications that developments may occur on this issue in the coming days.
Any solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue resulting from the Iran–Oman talks would have a positive impact on negotiations between Iran and the United States.
According to information received in Tehran, if the Iran–Oman talks lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the restoration of normal maritime traffic, Washington would lift the naval blockade and the oil sanctions. Such a move would significantly pave the way for both sides to return to the negotiating table and resume implementation of the MOU.
Mediators are currently exchanging messages between the parties, and the ongoing talks could lead Iran and the United States to resume implementation of the memorandum of understanding and the outcomes of the Switzerland meeting.

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

Very interesting peek into the opinions of Iranians during the war. It is skewed towards the anti-regime population (literate, urban), but the sample size (31K) says something meaningful. They are surprisingly pro-Shah and not anti-Israel. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Armin Arefi @arminarefi]

OPINION POLL. After five months of war in Iran, what do the Iranian people really think of the U.S.-Israeli military intervention, the resistance put up by the Islamic Republic, and the role of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi ?
THREAD 🧵 1/14
https://t.co/DYIurkolG3

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

After opening a front in the Red Sea, the Houthis (I assume) now hit Egypt. Iraqi pro-Iranian militias struck the Saudis from their side. If the Iranians are trying to plunge the region into full-scale war, that’s the way. Not sure what it’ll get them. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Arab News @arabnews]

Drone hits US-owned ​gas storage tanker at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, fueling fears of war expansion
https://t.co/dKngsyumb2

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

Evidence of some creativity (joint management and fees in Hormuz) makes me think this may actually work. Everybody can move on - Trump will say the problem was solved thanks to his pressure, Iran will say it’s an agreement without the US. Let’s see… @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Reuters @Reuters]

Iran's foreign minister discusses security of Strait of Hormuz with Saudi, Omani counterparts https://t.co/tBHUKRwJzv https://t.co/tBHUKRwJzv

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

The same Zaidi was in DC just a few days ago. Can he be carrying a message? With all those threats on both ends, you need someone to actually convey what you want to achieve… @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Arab News @arabnews]

WATCH: @drpezeshkian and Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi oversee the signing of memoranda of understanding between the two countries during al-Zaidi's visit to Tehran https://t.co/wEtxElB6zj

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

Trump says Israel will join if he asks it. Israelis are worried Iran might not wait for the formal invitation to land and retaliate against Israel to land. Either way, not good news for war-weathered Israelis - risk is growing rapidly. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Axios @axios]

Exclusive: Trump says he's "close" to decision on "massive attack" against Iran https://t.co/cT0ofF2Lip

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

Trump threatens, the Houthis deliver. Stakes (and oil prices) are rising, leaving Trump with two bad options - compromise or escalate. I predicted since April that both sides will prefer to avoid return to war, but it now seems more likely than ever. #IranWar‌ @conspectusintel

[Bloomberg @business]

The Bab el-Mandeb is the newest maritime flashpoint in the Iran war and it could stop traffic bound for the Suez Canal (via @opinion) https://t.co/4i6VKWA7Tr

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

While true in general, building alternatives is a matter of years. China will not hold prices steady forever by releasing supply. The Iranians therefore are playing their cards well, counting on Trump to fold first. However they also need to know when to compromise.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

iran’s control over the strait of hormuz is powerful leverage but also a wasting asset.

the longer they control it, the more other countries divert their long term supply chains & the more the us and gulf countries build defenses against drones and ballistic missiles.

if iran wants to monetize they need as much money as possible up front. this informs what has been an intransigent negotiating position.

[Shahar Koifman @ShaharKoifman]

American strikes tonight were not escalatory. Iranian-Pakistani talks fit this picture of an attempt to avoid war. In the end, it’s still the question if both sides can find a way to compromise. @conspectusintel #IranWar‌

[Iran International English @IranIntl_En]

Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni traveled to Pakistan for talks with senior Pakistani officials as exchanges of attacks between the United States and the Islamic Republic continued, Pakistani media reported.

Pakistani sources said Momeni arrived in Islamabad for meetings with Pakistani officials.