Peter Thiel: “Vertical integration is an under-explored modality of technological progress”
“In my mind, there probably are only two broad categories in the entire history of the last 250 years where people have actually come up with new things and made money doing so.”
The first is vertically-integrated, complex monopolies, which people started building at the end of the second industrial revolution—like Standard Oil and Ford at the end of the 19th century and start of the 20th century.
As Peter points out, this is done surprisingly little today:
“It’s typically fairly capital intensive and we live in a culture where it’s very hard to get people to buy into anything that’s super complicated and takes very long to build.”
But if you can pull it off—as Elon Musk has done with Tesla and SpacEx—these companies can be very valuable.
“Vertical integration is a very under-explored modality of technological progress that people would do well to look at more.”
The other category Thiel has come up with new things and made money doing so is software.
“There is something about software itself that is very powerful. Software has these incredible economies of scale and low marginal cost. And there is something about the world of bits—as opposed to the world of atoms—where you can often get very fast adoption.”
Video source: @ycombinator (2014)
CRASH COMING: Why I am buying not selling.
My target price for Gold is $27k. I got this price from friend Jim Rickards….and I own two goldmines.
I began buying gold in 1971….the year Nixon took gold from the US Dollar.
Nixon violated Greshams Law, which states “When fake money enters the system….real money goes into hiding.”
My target price for Bitcoin is $250 k in 2026.
Silver $100 in 2026. I own silver mines and I know new silver is scarce.
Ethereum $60. I got this from Tom Lee. Ethereum is block chain for Stable coins. This means Ethereum follows METCALFS law…. The law of NET WORKS.
LESSON: I follow the laws of money, Gresham and Metcalf’s laws.
Unfortunately the US Treasury and Fed break the laws. They print fake money to pay their bills. If you and I did what the Fed and Treasury are doing…. We would be in jail for breaking the laws.
Today the USA is the biggest debtor nation in history and why I have been warning “Savers are losers.”
That is why I keep buying gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum even when they crash.
Take care. Massive riches ahead.
A mentor told me:
If you get the right things right, you can get a lot of wrong things wrong, and still win.
"Perfect the details. Limit the number of details." - Jack Dorsey
The Sun is 99.8% of all mass in our solar system.
Even if you somehow burned Jupiter and everything that is not the Sun in a fusion reactor, the Sun would still round up to 100% of all energy.
The Sun is all that matters long-term.
Whenever I make an investment decision, I observe myself making it and think about the criteria I used. I ask myself how I would handle another one of those situations and write down my principles for doing so. Then I turn them into algorithms. I have gotten in the habit of doing it for all my decisions.
Algorithms are principles in action on a continuous basis. I believe that systemized, evidence-based decision making will radically improve the quality of management. Human managers process information spontaneously using poorly thought-out criteria and are unproductively affected by their emotional biases. These all lead to suboptimal decisions. Imagine what it would be like to have a machine that processes high-quality data using high-quality decision-making principles/criteria. Like the GPS in your car, it would be invaluable, whether you follow all of its suggestions or not. #principleoftheday
Your mind is an operating system being programmed in real-time.
Parents, teachers, friends, thoughts, emotions, content, books, notifications, news, and music are all writing code in your head.
If you don't filter, test, and edit the code, you don't control your life.
How to do what you love:
- Do what you love
- Do it in public
- Attract an audience
- Build a project
- Turn it into a product
- Put a price tag on it
- Learn to persuade
- Promote yourself
- Iterate with feedback
Starving artists stop at step one.
Academia must be kept inclusive and protected from politics. The nationality of students must not be a barrier to their valuable contributions to research and education.
For months, more than 700 Iranian Students, admitted to US universities to pursue their graduate studies, have been waiting for their student visas.
This long administrative process for issuing student visas not only hurts the future of these talented students, but also creates uncertainty for their professors, universities, and research funding agencies.
Please join me in asking the relevant authorities to speed up visa processes. This will help academia provide equal opportunities to ALL well-deserving applicants, irrespective of their birth places, which were out of their control!
#IranianStudents_USVisaDelays
If you have, or, worse, need new year resolutions, you must be doing something inherently wrong in your life and, particularly, lacking in self-knowledge.