Shane Markowitz

Assistant Professor @ComeniusUni: #IR
Associate Fellow @GLOBSEC
Research: #Environment #EU #Science #Populism
Educator: #Geography #History
PhD, PolSci, @ceu

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

My article @WPReview. Despite early sentiment pandemic & anxieties associated w/ it could fracture #EU, bloc now finds itself more integrated & united. #Populism marginalized. Poll numbers & policy implications 👇@GLOBSEC @VisegradInsight @KingaBrudzinska https://t.co/FtdAY0nc4X

[Inequality.org @inequalityorg]

An alternative to interest-rate hikes that hammer low- and average-income families.

From @ShaneMarkowitz @socialeurope:
https://t.co/Nr2k2sZrtq

[Gerry Mitchell @GerryMitchell2]

👏 from @ShaneMarkowitz Reminding us that prior crises reveal the answer to our current problems: progressive fiscal measures, rather than overly aggressive monetary policy and spending cuts which hit the poor hardest.

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

A week removed from abhorrent attack in Bratislava, EU must awaken to risks of doing nothing & unequivocally combat discrimination & hate and promote equality for all. My op-ed in @euobs. @ComeniusUni @GLOBSEC @ILGAEurope @LGBTIintergroup @europride https://t.co/Vv7lK4tHQt

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

My latest in @socialeurope. Though no easy path to ‘soft landing’, progressive fiscal measures—including temporary levies targeted at affluent and emergency assistance for those in need—must be part of armoury to curb inflation and its deleterious effects.
https://t.co/VXSJ6YbOoZ

[EUobserver @euobs]

[Opinion] The #homophobic attack in Bratislava must awaken the EU to the risks of doing nothing and steer it instead towards unequivocally combating #disinformation and hate and promoting #equality for all.
@ShaneMarkowitz
https://t.co/A3Mn6W9hw8

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

My latest in @euobs. Europe needs to resolutely stand firm on #LGBTIQ rights following abhorrent attack last week in Bratislava. @GLOBSEC

[EUobserver @euobs]

The deadly attack at an LGBTIQ establishment in Bratislava last week illustrates once again why the EU should step up its game. Also, in 2022, only 14 EU countries permit same sex marriage? #LGBTIQ #rights #ruleoflaw https://t.co/A3Mn6WqSnG

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

@KirilFedi @EuropeElects Votes from parties below 5% are redistributed. So right now Spolu + PaS = 103/200 seats.

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

Horrendous offer - no need for Dems to go along w/ it. Just wait it out and give Manchin & Sinema no choice but to eliminate filibuster if they want to prevent debt default. If McConnell were genuine, he would make multi-year offer.

[Manu Raju @mkraju]

McConnell told his colleagues he’s concerned about pressure on Manchin and Sinema to gut filibuster in order to raise debt ceiling, I’m told. He pointed to this as reason why he is floating short-term increase in order to ease pressure on and push Democrats to use reconcilation

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

Babis wants Czech voters to believe that entire Pandora Papers global report was orchestrated specifically to harm his campaign.🤦‍♂️

[Rob Cameron @RobCJournalist]

Czech PM @AndrejBabis dismisses @BBCPanorama @guardian et al allegations. "I was waiting what they'd pull on me just before elections, to damage me and influence Czech elections". Says "failed to find anything to use against me from period I've been in politics".

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

@tom_nuttall The election provides opportunity for left revival. If we remember back to 2005, Merkel only secured very tight victory in coalition but it provided platform to further expand support. SPD now too has a chance to show it can govern & voters could become accustomed to them again.

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

@VanberghenEU Perhaps a negotiating ploy though to pressure SPD? Just find it hard to believe Jamaica coalition happens given polls showing resounding public preference for traffic light + Scholz.

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

These polls absolutely bolster negotiating position of SPD. If Greens/FDP were to approach CDU, it would be very unpopular w. German electorate (and especially probably dampen Green support). SPD free to treat it more as an empty threat than if preferences were ambiguous. #btw21

[Europe Elects @EuropeElects]

Germany, Forsa poll:

Preferred Government Coalition

SPD (S&D)-GRÜNE (Greens/EFA)-FDP (RE): 50%
CDU/CSU (EPP)-GRÜNE (Greens/EFA)-FDP (RE): 22%
SPD (S&D)-CDU/CSU (EPP): 13%

Fieldwork: 27 September 2021
Sample size: 1,006

#btw21 #Bundestagswahl

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

@jonworth Exactly - SPD will be able to insist on quite a bit given its mandate but it will also be fairly limited compared to what it would do alone or with the Greens.

[Dave Keating @DaveKeating]

The new map of which European countries have same-sex marriage (dark blue), which have civil unions (light blue) and which have constitutional bans on gay marriage (red).

[Europe Elects @EuropeElects]

San Marino, final results:

Referendum on liberalising abortion law today

Support: 77.3%
Oppose: 22.7%

➤ https://t.co/6ERs0kkdsg

#SanMarino #ReferendumAborto

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

@jonworth Watching to see if Red-Red-Green becomes a possible scenario (just seven votes shy from 365 seats now as SPD enlarges lead) - this would completely change negotiation dynamics. #btw21

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

Latest German election numbers - SPD continuing to enlarge lead. Greens seeing improvement too. #btw21 #Bundestagswahl #Germany

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

@RikeFranke Starting to look a bit better for Greens compared to previous update. SPD continuing to expand margin. #btw21

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

@jonworth Especially w/ these preferred chancellor numbers - it would be ridiculous for Scholz not to lead government if SPD finishes ahead even by one seat. https://t.co/3MtHCoOXVI

[Europe Elects @EuropeElects]

Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen exit poll:

Preferred Chancellor [Head of Government]

Scholz (SPD-S&D): 48% (+1)
Laschet (CDU-EPP): 24% (+2)
Baerbock (GRÜNE-G/EFA): 14% (-2)

+/- vs. 22-23 Sep poll

Fieldwork: 26 September 2021

➤ https://t.co/obOCVirbpF

#BTW21 #Bundestag

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

Bottom line. Next government will be one of constraint. Union would put limits on SPD in Grand Coalition, FDP would similarly do so to SPD/Greens and Greens would do so to Union/FDP. Essentially: not much is going to change over next several years. 5/5

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

Projections now showing SPD expanding its lead to 1% over Union. Looking more like SPD will be in driving seat for next coalition talks. What this means👇 1/5 #btw21 #Bundestagswahl21 #GermanElection

[Shane Markowitz @ShaneMarkowitz]

CDU/Greens/FDP not impossible (and Greens have indicated openness to it tonight) but Greens would be ill-advised to agree to this one unless CDU are promising them all kinds of policy victories. 4/5