Shanghai Macro Strategist

China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West.

[Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacroo_]

Rumors are just for fun. What ultimately matters is facts-and-data-driven research based a solid analytical framework. If you are a sophisticated investor and interested in my investment-oriented China research, please direct message me and we will go from there. Thanks!

[Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacro]

As Richard Koo recently argued in an interview, “the key to technological innovation is profit. Without profit, nobody would participate in innovation.” In other words, without sufficient demand, the one-way bet on supply side economics may be counterproductive over the long-term

[Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacro]

Zhang focused on three points (1/2):

1. Boost long-term competitiveness via supply-side reforms.

2. Ensure macro stability via demand-side stimulus.

3. Promote social equality.

While Beijing is fully onboard with #1 and #3, the importance of #2 may be underestimated.

[Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacro]

This chart does not need any explanation. Exports are the only thing that currently works for China. If President Trump gets re-elected and reappoints Lightheizer as his trade chief, the ramping-up of US protectionism is perhaps the biggest risk facing the Chinese economy.

[Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacro]

Agree. Among the three leading manufacturng superpowers, the euro looks overvalued relative to CNY and JPY. In the face of fierce competition from China, JPY weakness has failed to boost Japanese industries. Europe did not even try to regain competitiveness via euro devaluation.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

The problem with Biden is not that he wants to run for office; the problem is that he is CURRENTLY in office.
This is a violation in statecraft deontology; similar to a surgeon/airplane pilot who commits malpractice by not disclosing that she/he is under the influence.

[Kevin Gee @kevg1412]

Michael Mauboussin illustrating cost structure and margin scalability.

[Shane Parrish @shaneparrish]

We often fixate on the visible and exciting, overlooking that most success comes from consistently doing the mundane, unglamorous work that few notice.

The 98/2 Rule: people spend 98% of their time talking about flashy things that contribute only 2% to the results, while overlooking the fact that 98% of the results come from consistently doing the boring basics that few notice.

Ask yourself: Does the attention you give to something truly reflect its importance?

[Michael Girdley @girdley]

I considered moving out of the USA.

After some research, I realized leaving is stupid.

There is no chance the USA will stop being the global superpower.

And the best country for opportunity.

The reason surprised me:

⬇️

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

You make the most money by having a 1–3-year variant view on a business and buying the stock before the business turns up, inflects, or accelerates. Your advantage is often your ability/willingness to look wrong for a few quarters before being right. Delayed gratification.

[Brian Stoffel @Brian_Stoffel_]

April 6th

I said: " $TSLA is cheap!"

It's up 37% in the last week alone!

Is it still cheap?

My answer⤵️

[Brian Stoffel @Brian_Stoffel_]

Why I Sold (YES -- SOLD!) CrowdStrike Stock $CRWD

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Spot the BS: "there are no low energy, rich countries" as if energy generates wealth, instead of wealth allowing the use of more energy as people can afford more consumption.

Simply rich countries consume more energy BECAUSE they can afford it.

Statistics is hard.

[Shane Parrish @shaneparrish]

A different take on what makes us feel so busy, stressed, and anxious.

---

As a rule, the larger your surface area, the more energy you have to expend maintaining it. Of course, when most of us think of surface area, we think of a the area of a rectangle or how much grass we have to mow. But there is a surface area of life, and most of us never realize how much it consumes.

If you have one house, you have a relatively small surface area to maintain (depending on the age and size of the house, of course). If you buy another one, your surface area expands. But it doesn't expand linearly - it expands slightly above that. It's all the same work plus more.

Friends are another type of surface area. You have a finite amount of time to spend with friends before you die. The more friends you have, the less time you can spend with each one individually.

Wealth is another form of surface area. The more money you have, the more you have to keep track of different types of assets and investments.

When your surface area expands too much, you hire people to help you scale. Assistants, property managers, family offices, etc. They're scaling you - but they're also scaling the surface area of responsibility. This, of course, only masks the rapidly expanding surface area by abstracting it.

Beliefs are another type of surface area.

The thing about surface area is that the more you have, the more you have to defend and maintain. The larger your surface area, the more you are burdened with mentally and physically.

If you think in terms of surface area, it's easy to see why we are so anxious, stressed, and constantly behind. We feel like we need more time, but what we're really craving is more focus on things that are important. What we need is a smaller surface area.

Surface area becomes part of your identity. She's the 'busy person' with her hand in every project. He's the guy with four houses.

Competition can drive expansion. Most people want a bigger house to compete with someone else who has a nicer house. We are animals, after all. On a group level, this causes great benefits. On an individual level, it can cause unhappiness.

Most of the really happy people I know have a relatively small surface area. I know billionaires with two houses. Most of my close friends only have 4-5 close friends - everyone else is a friend in the loose sense of the word. Most of the productive people I know at work are focused on one or two things, not 5.

The way to maximize your enjoyment in life is to keep your surface area small. It's a lot of work but if the happiest people I know are any indication, it's a lot less work to keep it small than to maintain it when it's large.

[Brian Stoffel @Brian_Stoffel_]

It all comes down to what's going on with Pepsi.

1⃣ Not restocking to be conservative --> 👍 No Big Deal, $CELH is a buy

2⃣ Not restocking b/c Pepsi isn't doing right by $CELH --> 🤷 Not ideal to have a bad partner.

3⃣ Not restocking due to weak demand --> 👎HUGE deal, run away!

[Brian Stoffel @Brian_Stoffel_]

But on May 28th, new data came out

[Brian Stoffel @Brian_Stoffel_]

We're halfway through the year.

Here's how I've performed, and my TOP 5 Stocks right now👇

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

How to analyze a Balance Sheet in less than 2 minutes:

[Thomas Chua @SteadyCompound]

This isn't to dismiss the use of multiples, but rather to raise the awareness of the limitations and how we think about it.