Sharib

Markets, narratives, and the space in between them. Macro | FX | Emerging Markets | Thematic

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Check out my most recent substack! A study on: The Transmission of Global Monetary Policy to Frontier Markets https://t.co/fi3RAQqQYw

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

Similar post by @SharibMacro on the asymmetric R/R with Romanian bonds and macro

[Nicotine Capital @6xleverage]

Mexican bankers be like señor secured term loan

[Murray Rothbard @MurraySuggests]

The Iranian navy, which has been destroyed eight times, has apparently closed the Strait of Hormuz again, because the United States, for the seventh time, won the war that wasn’t a war, so now the United States has to open the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the not-war began.

The not-war began because Iran had uranium that was totally, completely, beautifully obliterated, so they can’t build the nuclear bomb they weren’t building, which is why the United States had to start the not-war it definitely didn’t start.

Now the United States, which has nuclear weapons, is threatening to use nuclear weapons to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, because nuclear weapons are far too dangerous for countries with nuclear weapons to allow other countries to have.

If the United States saw the United States doing what the United States does in other countries, the United States would invade the United States to liberate the United States from the tyranny of the United States.

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

@Kevin_Carey_WB Does something like this exist for other EMs?

[Jason - macro & investing @MacroJason]

IMO deficit situation is a much more serious threat to Poland, Romania & Hungary than 'Russia risk'.

My post on why I see the Polish deficit situation as even worse than Romania's. Interestingly since last month, deficit forecasts now shows Poland has overtaken Romania as worse in EU 👉 https://t.co/zcDRA4Aahf

I am less familiar with the Hungarian deficit situation. But at least Magyar has a parliamentary majority and honeymoon period with the public to pass through tough reforms (and blame the pain on Orban). @Peter_Lukacs_R are you concerned about the Hungarian deficit situation or is it 'transitionary'?

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Kazakhstan: Near-term tenge gains are modest, reflecting structural outflows and global volatility, yet higher oil revenues offer fiscal and external opportunities.
https://t.co/7ZzLDF3m1H

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Strait of Risk: Iran Escalation and Global Markets

https://t.co/cAdysSLYJF

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Egypt: The EGP weakened dramatically as foreign investors exited local debt amid geopolitical shocks. Currency weakness and imported cost pressures now amplify inflation risks.

https://t.co/nrrfoFsYGt

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Oil shock complicates an easing cycle that looked all but certain. EUR/PLN should be relatively resilient in a volatile neighbourhood.
https://t.co/pDX4ikSOYk

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

US–Iran Escalation: Hungary and Türkiye face the sharpest shock in the CEE-complex

Check out my quick note on my view:
https://t.co/QojcxMF2Qd

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Hungary: A sharp CPI downside surprise will allow the MNB to restart easing while the HUF remains resilient. Markets shift focus toward terminal rates and fiscal risks ahead of elections. Maintain Long HGBs.
https://t.co/nTzlwFcLwH

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Kenya: Reserves rebuilt, inflation anchored, shilling stable, yet the 2y still demands a spread over CBR that improving fundamentals no longer justify
https://t.co/r4jNQMiA71

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Poland: January's flash CPI will allow the NBP to ease in March. The pace beyond March will remain data-dependent, with domestic demand and external risks shaping the trajectory
https://t.co/OQnoKKcYlX

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

🇨🇿 Maintain Pay CZK 1y1y vs Receive CZK 3y IRS
Entry: Pay ~3.05% / Receive ~3.25% |
Spot: 1y 3.42% / 3y 3.48% | P/L: +14bps

🇨🇿 Maintain Long CZK/EUR
Entry: 24.28
Spot: 24.25 / P/L 0.3%

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Czech Republic: CNB holds firm. Growth momentum and real rate advantage support further curve flattening and gradual koruna appreciation. Maintain the curve flattener and short EUR/CZK.

https://t.co/bWIOTp8KO2

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Türkiye: Rate cuts press ahead despite fragile inflation dynamics. Markets are likely to challenge policy credibility. Maintain Long USD/TRY.

https://t.co/JVfWfxdDSG

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Kazakhstan: Robust inflows and soft USD dynamics have kept the tenge resilient, but reduced FX sales and rising price pressures may limit gains beyond 1H26.

https://t.co/ru3kMWhtJS

[SA Reserve Bank @SAReserveBank]

The MPC keeps the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.75%
#SARBMPCJan26 #InterestRates

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Zambia: Seasonal inflows and regulatory FX measures have driven a sharp rally, but these are likely peaking. I stay long USD/ZMW as import demand and dollar liquidity pressures return.

https://t.co/49WazlnlsA

[Sharib @SharibMacro]

Hungary: The fiscal path splits ahead of the election, with consolidation under Fidesz or redistribution under Tisza implying divergent outcomes for HUF and duration. Maintain Long EUR/HUF and Long 10y HGB.

https://t.co/oDUElCFJtM