🧵 Let's dive into the distribution of returns for a stock—specifically Close-to-Close (C2C), Open-to-Close (O2C), and High-to-Low (H2L), what these are and what they tell us
These metrics help us understand price movements, volatility, and risk, e.g the characteristics of how a stock trades
These distributions are then analyzed to produce further insights we call descriptive statistics.
I'll use simple simulated data for a made-up stock (like a random walk with a slight upward trend and wiggles) to show examples. Real stocks differ, but this teaches the basics.
@avaliarslan07@keyfipyIasimIar They behave like magnets, how quickly they move and set near the floor, compared to how they move and speed when in free fall or on top of other dice.
watch in .25x speed and looking closely you can see quick setting once on the floor. Doesn't look natural
@RohOnChain These are the results I received running the system posted in this article.
I've researched Markov Chain and Hidden Markov before, but couldn't find alpha using it as a regime identifier, especially not compared to three other regime identification systems that have been proven
@alojohhardcore Is SPCX going to be a buy on IPO still, or is there any preliminary information that could come out in advance that changes the picture?
I ran studies on this. The data show unanimously that 'psychological numbers' are not useful.
And guess what the 'real' psychological number is that price reacts to more than any other number?
It's $1, which makes sense. Every other integer, whether $100, $250, $360, doesn't matter.
Hi AJ,
Regarding extra capital and seeing the overvalued growth of RKLB, I have questions:
1. Is it unwise to put towards the shorting of RKLB before the SpaceX IPO?
2. Is RKLB still going to need to raise capital and dilute shares in the near future, or do the backlogs offset that?
@alojohhardcore@GrowthInactive Your analysis on this is going to make us very confident.
Feels like a great short opportunity, but the data shows that Mondays usually carry forward Friday's momentum winners
@alojohhardcore I'm sure the SpaceX IPO valuation has some way attributed a higher floor to RKLB, so on a peer to peer naive comparison, I'm guessing many see RKLBs mccap and think it to be undervalued.
@alojohhardcore@AhmedHegazy If AMD is front running with very high multiples, just on a trade aspect, a quick short has a higher probability of returns than going into today's print than a long, correct?
@CaffeSatoshi Yes I know, but not in this case.
Just look at the numbers and tell me another reason for the short other than inverse Cramer. Traders/Investors shouldn't just copy trade / inverse trade.
If there is no other thesis, then don't short it.
@TrumpDailyPosts Nice triple post. This account is no longer followable.
You should have just stuck with reposting POTUS' truth social posts in chronological order.
What a mess this account has become in the last month.