Inside a High-Conviction Trade: ZM
Day 5 | Feeling steadier
I slept through the night. I did take a little extra melatonin, so I’m noting that too.
ZM moved lower overnight. I checked when I woke up, and when there wasn’t a bounce at the open, I shorted two more contracts.
My thought: “If my thesis is a move lower over four weeks, why wouldn’t I add?”
I noticed self-doubt. But I also want to stay honest with myself: hesitation isn’t automatically self-doubt, and conviction alone doesn’t justify adding risk. Adding contracts increases what I could lose if the trade turns against me.
The signals I’m watching still look supportive to me. I want to stay aware without seeing something simply because I want it to be there.
Later, price bounced back toward the opening level. I felt fine. It was still a red day, and I didn’t feel the same urge to do something.
Today, I’m practicing TAME, a reminder I took from reading The Happiness Trap. In my own words:
T — Take note of what I’m thinking and feeling.
A — Allow those thoughts and feelings to come up.
M — Make room for them. Having a thought or feeling doesn’t require me to act on it.
E — Expand my awareness. Get out of my head, stop repeatedly checking, and do something else.
I’m feeling better today. Whether this trade works or not, I’m practicing skills I want for the long term: awareness, patience, and the flexibility to respond when conditions change.
*Educational trading journal, not investment advice or a recommendation, personal account. I hold a short ZM position and added to it today. Futures involve substantial risk; losses can exceed the initial deposit. This selected trade does not represent overall investment performance.
Inside a High-Conviction Trade: ZM
An emotional trading journal | Days 1–4
I thought I would track my emotional ride through a soybean meal futures trade. The chart on one side. What’s going on in my head on the other.
Holding a trade in the highly volatile futures market is something I struggle with. I can feel confident entering, then become fearful even when price moves in the direction I anticipated. Can you relate?
THE SETUP
I entered short ZM using the one-hour chart shown here. I saw what looked like a double top.
My thesis was based on several of my indicators, along with my interpretation of market sentiment and speculative positioning. Together with the potential double top, these suggested to me that a downward move could develop over a month or longer.
That was my expectation, not a certainty. The signals could be wrong, the pattern could fail, and a rally would work against my short position.
FIRST TWO ENTRIES: CONFIDENCE
I feel confident. I see the setup and enter the trade.
DAYS 2–3: THE OVERNIGHT CHECKING
I wake up in the middle of the night to check the direction. Feeling anxious and the release of dopamine.
My original idea has a month-long horizon, yet I’m checking what’s happening multiple times a day. I’m noticing how difficult it is to sit with uncertainty.
My agreement with myself: no discretionary exit before the end of the trading day. My risk controls still apply. I want to give myself time to assess the trade rather than act just to relieve the feeling.
DAY 4: PRICE DOWN, FEAR UP
A strong down day. Price is moving in my favor, but I’m getting more nervous.
I start scanning the chart for possible future exits.
I’m becoming aware of my pattern: I look for relief from uncertainty by trying to predict the future. I keep checking the chart, hoping to feel sure about what happens next.
I’ll work on grounding techniques to calm my nerves and reconnect with what I want in the long term. Whether this trade works or not, I’m developing my ability to sit with discomfort, stay flexible, and make thoughtful decisions.
That’s what I want to explore in this journal: my thoughts, emotions, urges, and the decisions I actually make as the trade unfolds.
Disclosure: These first four days are a retrospective account of an ongoing trade personal trade, shared for education about trading psychology. This is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. I hold a short position in the trade discussed. Futures involve substantial risk; leverage can cause losses exceeding the initial amount deposited. This selected trade does not represent overall investment performance.
My reading is that the “mud” can represent fear, excitement, expectations, FOMO, and the stories we build around what is happening. There is nothing shameful about having mud. The question is whether we can give ourselves enough space to see through it before we make our next move?
@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt@markminervini Great interview, I really enjoyed your questions, I agree we can learn his strategy in his book, etc... You got to the meat of what it takes to be successful. Thank you 🙏
When information is incomplete, our brain wants to fill in the gaps with a story about what happens next. Sometimes it’s the worst-case scenario. We anticipate a loss, imagine how painful it will be, and that possibility starts to feel like a fact. Other times, it’s the best-case scenario. We see an opportunity, remember a past success, and imagine the profit and how good it will feel. That possibility starts to feel like a certainty. Don't be fooled, stay in reality.